On the liability side, deposit growth also witnessed a meaningful surge, rising to 13.5% YoY compared to 10.8% in the preceding fortnight. The system added approximately INR12 trillion in deposits in the last two weeks of March alone, indicating an aggressive mobilization push by banks to support balance sheet expansion. Despite this improvement, the gap between credit and deposit growth remains elevated at 2.6%, though it has moderated from earlier levels.
This easing is reflected in key liquidity indicators. The system-level loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) declined to 81.4% from 83% in the prior fortnight, while incremental LDR dropped sharply to 81% from 101%, marking one of the lowest levels since August 2025. The moderation suggests some relief in funding pressures, albeit within a still tight liquidity environment.
Banks have increasingly relied on wholesale funding avenues to bridge the gap. Certificate of Deposit (CD) issuances rose to INR14.3 trillion in FY26, up from INR11.7 trillion in FY25, with nearly 30% of issuances concentrated in February and March. Notably, peak CD rates touched 8.2% in March despite a lower policy repo rate of 5.25%, highlighting persistent tightness in system liquidity and elevated marginal cost of funds.
Structurally, regulatory frameworks such as Liquidity Coverage Ratio ad Net Stable Funding Ratio optimization offer headroom for balance sheet expansion, with potential for further improvement in credit-deposit ratios. This, coupled with strong second-half momentum, positions the sector for sustained growth.
Looking ahead, the sector is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory, with credit growth projected at a 14% CAGR over FY27–28. However, the interplay between deposit mobilization, funding costs, and liquidity conditions will remain critical. While demand-side fundamentals remain intact, the ability of banks to efficiently manage liabilities will be key to sustaining margins and supporting future growth.
AU Small Finance Bank: Buy| Target Rs 1250
AU Small Finance Bank is actively pursuing a universal banking licence, which would significantly expand its liability franchise, reduce cost of funds, and unlock access to a much larger customer base. This transition, if successful, would re-rate the bank meaningfully, positioning it closer to established private sector peers in terms of valuation and business scale. AU SFB’s core strength lies in serving the underbanked and MSME segments across Rajasthan, Gujarat, and tier 2-3 markets; a space with decades of growth ahead. As financial inclusion deepens and credit penetration rises in these geographies, AU is structurally positioned to compound its loan book at a healthy 25-30% CAGR over the long term. Unlike most small finance banks, AU has demonstrated an exceptional ability to build a retail deposit base; a critical differentiator for long-term sustainability.
ICICI Bank: Buy| Target Rs 1750
ICICI Bank continues to deliver a well-rounded performance, supported by improving loan growth, a strong liability franchise and resilient asset quality. Growth remains well diversified, with SME and business banking expected to sustain high-teen expansion, supported by improving demand conditions and a healthy enquiry pipeline. We estimate the loan book to grow at ~16% CAGR over FY26–28.On the liabilities front, the bank maintains a stable and granular deposit base, with deposits growing ~9% YoY and CASA ratios holding steady at ~40–41%. Asset quality remains a core strength, with strong underwriting and adequate provision buffers ensuring stability. Credit costs are expected to remain contained at ~45–50 bps, while GNPA/NNPA ratios are likely to improve further. Overall, ICICI Bank is well positioned to deliver steady earnings growth, with PPoP/PAT CAGR of ~18%/16% over FY26–28, supporting RoA/RoE of ~2.3%/16.4%.
(The author is Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research – Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services)
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
