Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday announced the American central bank’s decision to keep policy rates unchanged, as inflation is not coming down as much as they had hoped amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and President Donald Trump’s tariff flip-flops. Investors are now increasingly eyeing RBI’s upcoming MPC meeting in April.
Normally, tighter interest rate outlook dampens appetite for metals, which are seen as cyclical beneficiaries of rising industrial and infrastructure activity. Additionally, worries around heightened inflation in the US also puts pressure on the stocks.
Middle East war to boost metal prices?
Elara Capital in its report said that average prices of hot-rolled coil (HRC ) and primary rebar have surged by approximately 13% and nearly 20% respectively in the quarter-to-date. “This upward momentum positively influences margin of steel producers. A 19% spike in international thermal coal prices in the past two months, combined with ongoing gas shortages, will likely hinder secondary steel mills’ capacity to cut prices once peak seasonal demand subsides. With competing product prices holding firm, primary long steel prices are poised to remain supported. Gas constraints should further limit supply of galvanized steel, adding upward pressure on prices,” the brokerage said.
It sees aluminium’s near-term prices to remain elevated, fueled by higher thermal coal cost and supply disruptions in the Middle East, which accounts for approximately 8% of global aluminium production.
According to the World Steel Association, global crude steel production began CY26 on a weaker note, declining around 7% YoY to 147.3 million tonnes. China exports roughly 25–30 million tonnes of steel annually to the Middle East. “Disruption to regional shipping routes could force China’s mills to redirect shipments toward Southeast Asia or domestic markets, thereby increasing supply pressure across alternative export destinations. Meanwhile, India’s steel exports to the Middle East have slowed amid freight volatility and rising shipping risks. Cargo originally bound for the EU is increasingly being rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope, extending transit times by ~10–20 days and significantly increasing freight cost,” Elara Capital said.
The domestic brokerage noted that while Indian steel prices continued to rebound in February, the recovery in demand remains moderate, which limits further upside in prices. “Given the ongoing gas shortage, partly driven by supply disruption amid the escalating US – Iran conflict in the Middle East, galvanized steel prices are set to remain firm, due to supply constraints,” it added.
JM Financial in a recent note had said that Indian steel spreads are expected to improve sequentially in Q4 FY26, supported by a sharp recovery in domestic steel prices following the safeguard duty implementation in late December last year. “The escalating USIsrael-Iran conflict has created a sharp upside risk for global aluminium markets, primarily through supply disruption risks in the Middle East,” it added.
“While higher aluminium prices support near-term margins for producers such as Hindalco, persistently elevated prices could eventually weigh on demand. “JSPL (low leverage, high volume growth over next few years) and Tata Steel (CBAM leading to higher prices in Europe, aiding Corus margins) remain our top picks in the space,” the brokerage further said.
Hindustan Copper shares have emerged as the top loser among the metals pack, falling over 14% in the past one month. Hindustan Zinc shares followed, dropping nearly 13%. Notably, the correction in these two stocks follows a sharp rally earlier this year. Tata Steel and JSW Steel shares declined around 11%, while Adani Enterprises shares tumbled 10% and Hindalco Industries fell 7%.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
