“No matter how great a stock picker you are, remember one thing: majority of your returns will be driven by the macro cycle of the Market. Hence, timing the macro cycle is not just critical, but Essential,” Sharma said in a tweet.
In his view, no investor made money between 2014 and 2020, a period he described lacking macro tailwinds while most of the gains being made in the last 4-5 years. “( Eg: between 2014-2020, nobody made much money. Small caps were a disaster. GDP growth was abysmal. Corp earnings were saddening. For all investors across sizes, 90% of their current portfolio worth came in only the last 4-5 years.) Think deeply about this,” Shrama said.
No matter how great a stock picker you are, remember one thing: majority of your returns will be driven by the macro cycle of the Market.
Hence, timing the macro cycle is not just critical, but Essential.
( Eg: between 2014-2020, nobody made much money. Small caps were a…— Shankar Sharma (@1shankarsharma) November 20, 2025
Nifty has delivered multibagger returns of 102% in the last five years while BSE Sensex has yielded 94% in the same period, according to Trendlyne data.
In the broader markets, the Nifty Midcap 100’s returns over the last five years stand at 217% while Nifty Smallcap 100 at 189% as on the Friday, November 21 closing.
The recently concluded earnings season saw lower downgrades.
“Post Q2FY26, Nifty 50 observed marginal revisions (in consensus estimate), as aggregate net profit for FY26E/ FY27E/ FY28E was downgraded by 0.7% and upgraded by 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively,” Choice Broking said in a note.
Larger upgrades (in the consensus net profit estimates) were witnessed across autos on the back of improved traction in auto sales volume along with capital goods on better expectation of private capex in 2HFY26, Telecommunication’s upward revioin is led by growth in wireless ARPU driven by premiumisation and and financial services was driven by higher credit growth and stabilising NIM margin.
Downgrades are observed for building materials due to lower realisation and lower profitability and energy due to lower revenue growth. Metals, power and transportaion are also in the queue.
For metals, weaker realisation and lower domestic demand was the biggest undoing while for power, lower power demand and weaker margin acted spoilsport. As for transportation one-off forex losses were the culprits, this brokerage added.
Motilal Oswal, in its review note said that the Nifty-500 universe delivered a healthy double-digit earnings growth in 2QFY26, the highest
in five quarters, despite geopolitical headwinds and weak consumption trends. “Aggregate earnings of the Nifty-500 Universe grew 15% YoY. Ex-Financials, the reported aggregate earnings jumped 20% YoY. Ex-Metals and O&G, the
aggregate earnings grew 9% YoY,” MOFSL said.
Also Read: Shankar Sharma says India, US at lowest exposure in 30 years, remains bearish on indices
(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)
