He describes this range as plausible given that equity markets and treasury markets appear, in his words, deeply entangled in a \u201cfilthy fiat\u201d environment still grappling with the vestiges of inflation and rising interest rates. Hayes points out that Maelstrom, his investment firm, remains net long while simultaneously raising its holdings in the USDe stablecoins to buy back Bitcoin if price falls below $75,000.<\/p>\n

In his view, scaling back risk in the short term allows him to preserve capital that can later be deployed when a genuine market liquidation occurs. He identifies a 30% correction from current levels as a distinct possibility, while also acknowledging that the bullish momentum could continue. \u201cif Bitcoin trades through $110,000 on strong volume with an expanding perp open interest, then I\u2019ll throw in the towel and buy back risk higher,\u201d he writes on his second scenario.<\/p>\n

However, he believes that at some point, the financial system will need an intervention\u2014most likely an exemption to the Supplemental Leverage Ratio (SLR) or a new wave of quantitative easing. He contends that the reluctance or slowness of the Fed to take these steps increases the probability of a near-term bond market sell-off, which could weigh on equities, and by correlation, Bitcoin.<\/p>\n

His political analysis homes in on the lingering enmity between Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, as well as the Fed\u2019s willingness to forestall a crisis during the Biden presidency. He cites statements from former Fed governor William Dudley and references Powell\u2019s press conference remarks that suggested the Fed might alter its approach based on Trump\u2019s policies.<\/p>\n