The 50-stock index rose 117 points, or 0.46%, on Friday to close at 25,571.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said the Nifty faces resistance at the 21-EMA on the daily chart despite Friday’s positive close. He added that the RSI remains in a bearish crossover, signalling weak underlying momentum.
“India VIX remained volatile, keeping market participants on edge. In the coming days, volatility is likely to stay elevated, with the index expected to oscillate in the 25,300-25,800 range. Immediate support is placed at 25,500, while resistance is seen at 25,650,” De said.
Factors likely to steer the market on Monday
1) Trump tariffs
While European and US markets ended higher on Friday, cheering the US Supreme Court’s decision to strike down President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, global markets will now track developments following the court order.
The apex court’s ruling was initially viewed as positive for equities. However, soon after the decision, Trump signed fresh orders imposing a 10% tariff on imports from all countries, later raising it to 15%, saying the move would be “effective almost immediately.”
2) Geopolitics
The US-Iran stand-off remains a key concern for global equity markets, a glimpse of which was seen on Thursday when Indian markets came under heavy selling pressure.
Trump on Friday issued fresh warnings to Iran, threatening military action if it refuses to “better negotiate a fair deal”.
According to AFP, the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier entered the Mediterranean Sea on Friday after being ordered by US President Donald Trump as part of a significant military build-up in the Middle East. The carrier was seen transiting the Strait of Gibraltar, which connects the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea.
3) US markets
Domestic markets will take cues from Wall Street’s performance. On Friday, the frontline US indices ended on a subdued note. The Dow 30 settled at 49,359, down 83 points or 0.17%, while the S&P 500 closed at 6,940, declining 5 points or 0.06%. The Nasdaq Composite also ended marginally lower, slipping 14.63 points or 0.06% to 23,515.40.
However, for the week, US markets posted gains. The Dow rose 0.5%, or 231 points, to 49,626, while the S&P 500 advanced 48 points, or 0.70%, to 6,909.51. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.90%, or 203 points, to 22,886.
Also read: Sweeping tariffs gone but Trump’s 10% global tariffs on. What to expect from markets on Monday?
4) Crude oil
In the event of a war-like situation, crude oil prices are expected to rise amid potential supply disruptions. Any escalation in tensions could impact the Strait of Hormuz, a 21-mile-wide waterway that serves as a critical artery for global energy supplies. Nearly 13 million barrels per day pass through the Strait, accounting for about 31% of global seaborne crude oil trade.
US WTI crude was last trading at $66.31 per barrel on COMEX, down $0.09 or 0.14%, while Brent settled at $71.76, up $0.02 or 0.03%.
5) FII/DII action
Friday’s data showed that Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold Indian equities worth Rs 934.61 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were net buyers at Rs 2,637.15 crore.
Although FII flows have remained positive so far in February, sustained inflows will be crucial for benchmark indices to end the month on a strong note and potentially defy the usual negative seasonality.
6) IPO watch
Three mainboard IPOs are set to collectively raise Rs 4,063 crore this week, pointing to a busy primary market calendar. The line-up includes renewable energy player Clean Max Enviro Energy Solutions, jewellery retailer PNGS Reva Diamond Jewellery and engineering solutions provider Omnitech Engineering.
In addition, six SME issues will hit the market, taking the total fundraising across the mainboard and SME segments to nearly Rs 4,300 crore.
Among the SME IPOs slated to open are Shree Ram Twistex (Rs 110.24 crore), Kiaasa Retail (Rs 69.72 crore), Accord Transformer and Switchgear (Rs 25.59 crore) and Mobilise App Lab (Rs 20.10 crore).
7) Technical triggers
Decoding the technical setup, Bajaj Broking said the index formed a reasonably strong bullish candle with an upper shadow on the daily chart, indicating a rebound from lower levels even as selling pressure persisted at higher zones. The Nifty continues to trade below its 21-, 50- and 100-day EMAs, with the next key and reliable support seen near the long-term 200-day EMA, placed around the 25,250 mark.
“In the near term, the index is expected to consolidate within a broad 25,000–26,000 range, maintaining a sideways bias. Volatility remained elevated, with India VIX spiking amid lingering geopolitical concerns. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 25,350, followed by 25,200, which aligns closely with the 200-day EMA and could act as a crucial cushion. On the upside, resistance is placed at 25,650 and 25,720, where any pullback towards higher levels is likely to attract selling pressure,” the brokerage said.
8) Rupee Vs dollar
The rupee plunged 26 paise to settle at 90.94 against the US dollar on Friday, tracking the strength of the American currency against major peers and rising crude oil prices amid escalating US-Iran tensions. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 90.94 and slipped to an intraday low of 91.04 before closing at 90.94, marking a sharp decline of 26 paise from the previous close.
Earlier in the week, the rupee had risen 4 paise to settle at 90.68 on Wednesday. The forex market remained closed on Thursday on account of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Jayanti.
“Technically, the USDINR spot has broken out on the upside after a two-week consolidation phase between 90.40 and 90.80. Immediate support is now seen at 90.80, while resistance is pegged at 91.10 and 91.40,” said Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
