NYMEX Crude oil has surged to a near one-year high as the conflict in West Asia intensifies, disrupting key energy routes and amplifying fears of deeper supply shocks. The region, home to the vital Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of global oil trade flows, has witnessed escalating military strikes and retaliatory attacks, sharply raising geopolitical risk premiums.

This geopolitical stress is now echoing across major Asian importing nations. India’s MCX crude futures have climbed to around Rs 7,800 per barrel, marking their highest level since October 2023 and extending a firmly bullish streak. Benchmark crude prices for other key Asian buyers have also strengthened, with the Indian crude basket rising to about USD 88 per barrel, underscoring the broader regional cost pressures triggered by tightening supply routes. In a fragile environment, crude oil markets have become hypersensitive to geopolitical headlines, as traders, refiners, and governments reassess supply security amid fears of structural shortages.

Refinery Vulnerabilities and Supply-Side Disruptions

The military flare-up in West Asia has already resulted in strikes damaging critical oil facilities and tanker vessels. Iranian retaliatory attacks and earlier drone strikes have disrupted operational continuity at several sites, raising fears of further hits on major refineries. Any large-scale damage to these assets could trigger immediate production stoppages, sharply reduce short-term supply, and accelerate price spikes as markets move to price in lost barrels.

These risks remain particularly acute because refinery and infrastructure assets are difficult to shield from targeted assaults. Even limited interruptions can lead to disproportionately large market reactions, given the fragile balance between global supply and demand.

The Strait of Hormuz: A Chokepoint Under Threat

The Strait of Hormuz remains the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, handling nearly one-fifth of globally traded crude. Recent closures and tanker suspensions following threats from Tehran have already interrupted flows, with more than 200 vessels forced to anchor outside the strait. Any prolonged blockage would severely constrain supply, pushing crude significantly higher.

Speculative buying and the ‘war premium’

As risks deepen, futures markets have built a notable “war premium,” with Brent front-month contracts trading at elevated levels as traders price in worsening instability. Speculative flows intensify when uncertainty rises, amplifying volatility and accelerating upward price momentum.

Worries about whether other suppliers can offset disruptions

Although alternative suppliers such as the US, Russia, and West Africa can help diversify flows, there is caution that global producers may not fully compensate for a major Gulf supply loss. Even OPEC+ signalling modest output increases has not eased concerns, as physical disruptions in Hormuz-linked exports would outweigh incremental supply adjustments.

Inflation Risks and Long-Term Fragility

The intensifying conflict has raised fears that prolonged instability could fuel inflation globally. Shipping delays, tanker bottlenecks, and stricter maritime security measures are already causing supply delays, tightening near-term availability of crude. This adds to inflationary pressures at a time when many economies are still grappling with elevated price levels and slow-to-moderate growth.Long-term supply fragility is also emerging as a central concern. Countries heavily reliant on Gulf energy—particularly in Asia—face potential headwinds to growth, macroeconomic stability, and financial conditions if disruptions persist.

Impact on Key Importing Nations: India, China, Japan, and South Korea

India and China, both deeply dependent on Gulf oil, face significant vulnerabilities. For India, disruptions in Hormuz threaten nearly 40–50% of its crude inflows, raising import costs, widening the current account deficit, and putting pressure on the rupee. Inflation risks intensify as higher crude prices cascade into fuel, logistics, and industrial costs.

For China, prolonged supply uncertainty risks weakening economic momentum, heightening financial instability, and triggering energy-driven inflation. Meanwhile, Japan and South Korea—both reliant on crude shipped through Hormuz—are grappling with rising procurement costs and heightened exposure to global market volatility.

The crisis has also reached Europe, where attacks on QatarEnergy’s LNG facilities have contributed to a sharp spike in natural gas prices.

However, Asian importers are boosting strategic reserves, diversifying supplies toward Russia, the US, West Africa and Latin America, expanding long-term contracts, and securing alternative shipping routes to overcome the situation.

Outlook: Short-Term Shock, Medium-Term Uncertainty

While the current surge reflects a geopolitical shock, crude prices may stabilise once tensions ease and shipping flows resume. History shows that even temporary Hormuz-related disruptions can trigger volatility, but diversified supply chains and strategic reserves across key Asian importers help mitigate prolonged damage.

That said, the ongoing conflict-driven rise in crude prices poses broader threats to global growth. Higher energy costs risk squeezing corporate margins, slowing consumption, widening current account deficits, and pressuring currencies in energy-dependent economies. If disruptions persist, borrowing costs could rise, compounding financial stress.

In the near term, markets will remain highly reactive to geopolitical developments, with the trajectory of the conflict shaping crude’s direction. Over the longer term, the episode underscores the urgent need for diversified energy routes, enhanced strategic storage, and resilient supply chains to navigate an increasingly uncertain global energy landscape.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times.)

Nifty ended sharply lower on Friday amid broad-based selling pressure. Auto, financials and FMCG stocks were the key laggards, while the IT sector witnessed selective buying. The index has declined steeply after remaining below its key short-term moving average for three consecutive sessions.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, noted that the index has also slipped below the 200-day moving average (DMA), signalling continued weakness in the near term. “The RSI indicator has turned sharply bearish. In the short term, the index may remain under selling pressure, with rallies likely to be sold into. Immediate support is placed at 25,000 and 24,750, while resistance is seen at 25,370,” De said.

Here are 2 stock recommendations for Monday:

Buy RR Kabel at Rs 1,562 | Upside: 6%

Stop Loss: below Rs 1,515

Target: Rs 1,655

RR Kabel is showing a bullish continuation setup on the weekly timeframe. Price has broken above a multi-month consolidation zone near Rs 1,520–Rs 1,550, confirming a range breakout. The stock is trading above its 20/50/100/200 EMAs, indicating strong trend alignment and medium-term bullish structure. The 20 EMA has crossed above the 50 EMA, supporting positive momentum. RSI (14) is near 58–60, holding above the midline without being overbought, suggesting further upside potential. Volume expansion on breakout strengthens the move. Higher highs and higher lows confirm trend reversal from the previous corrective phase.(Drumil Vithlani, Technical Research Analyst, Bonanza Portfolio)

Buy Siemens at Rs 3,418 | Upside: 6%

Stop Loss: Rs 3,315 – Rs 3,330

Target: Rs 3,590 – Rs 3,620

Siemens Limited has given a fresh breakout on the daily chart, closing decisively above recent swing highs with strong bullish momentum. The price is trading above its 20/50/100/200 EMAs, indicating a well-established uptrend. RSI is hovering near the 65 zone, reflecting strengthening momentum without entering extreme overbought territory. Volume expansion on the breakout further validates buying interest. Traders can consider initiating fresh long positions at current levels, maintaining strict risk management as long as the price sustains above the breakout zone.

(Drumil Vithlani, Technical Research Analyst, Bonanza Portfolio)

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

Indian benchmark index Nifty ended the week flat, although the bias remained mildly negative. When markets resume trading on Monday, a host of key domestic and global events lined up for the week are likely to influence sentiment.

On Friday, the Nifty closed 152.70 points, or 0.59%, higher at 26,186.45.

Commenting on the trend, Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer at Master Capital Services, said the sharp surge on Friday reaffirmed the strength of the prevailing uptrend. He added that the market structure remains bullish, supporting a buy-on-dips strategy for a constructive medium-term outlook.

“The daily RSI at 63 reflects healthy buying momentum, while the MACD staying in positive territory supports continued trend strength. On the technical front, resistance is placed near 26,350, and a decisive breakout above this zone could extend the move toward 26,600,” Singh said.

Factors likely to drive market movement when trading resumes this week:

1. Fed FOMC

Global markets will train their guns on the US Federal Reserve’s policy outcome this week as the rate-setting committee meets on December 9 to decide whether to deliver a 25 bps rate cut. Investors will also track the central bank’s commentary on the economy, labour market, and the likely rate trajectory going forward.

The two-day meeting will conclude on December 10, followed by a press briefing from Chair Jerome Powell.

2. US markets

Major indices on Wall Street ended higher on Friday, supported by favourable economic data and expectations of a rate cut.

Consumer spending rose 0.3% in September, in line with Street estimates, Reuters reported. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index also increased 0.3%, matching the previous month’s rise. On a year-on-year basis, the PCE Price Index advanced 2.8% in September after a 2.7% increase in August, with both readings aligning with forecasts.

Buoyed by these developments, the Nasdaq Composite closed at 23,578.10, up 72.99 points or 0.31%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended at 47,955, gaining 104.05 points or 0.22%, while the S&P 500 settled at 6,870.40, up 13.28 points or 0.19%.

Domestic and global markets are likely to take their cues from US market trends.

3. IPO watch

It will be an action-packed week for the primary market, with five mainboard IPOs and seven SME IPOs hitting D-Street. Together, these companies aim to raise Rs 13,807 crore.

The biggest newsmaker is the public issue of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company, in which promoter entity Prudential Corporation Holdings Limited will sell up to 48,972,994 equity shares. The OFS size stands at a hefty Rs 10,603 crore. The IPO will open on Friday, December 12.

Read more: ICICI Prudential AMC sets Rs 2,061–2,165 price band for its Rs 10,603 crore IPO

The other mainboard IPOs opening this week are Corona Remedies, Wakefit Innovations, Park Medi World and Nephrocare Health Services. The SME issues include Riddhi Display Equipments, Prodocs Solutions, K. V. Toys India, Shipwaves Online, Unisem Agritech, Pajson Agro India and Ashwini Container Movers.

Five additional SME IPOs will close during the week, Western Overseas Study Abroad, Luxury Time, Flywings Simulator Training Centre, Encompass Design India and Methodhub Software.

On the listings front, Vidya Wires, Aequs and Meesho are set to debut in the mainboard category. Nine SME companies will also make their market debut this week.

Also Read: IPO Calendar: ICICI Pru AMC, Wakefit to anchor Rs 13,000 crore pipeline next week

4. FII/DII action

Foreign institutional investors’ (FIIs) activity remains a critical factor for domestic markets, influencing not just equities but also the rupee. FIIs turned net sellers on Friday, offloading Indian equities worth Rs 439 crore. Meanwhile, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers, purchasing shares worth Rs 4,189 crore.

Also Read: FIIs sell Rs 11,820 crore worth of Indian equities in first week of December. Can RBI liquidity be a succor?

5. Technical Factors

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said the sharp post-policy upmove in the Nifty has reinforced a positive trend, with the index comfortably holding above its 21-EMA. Decoding the charts, he noted that the index has broken out of its recent consolidation on the hourly chart, signalling rising optimism.

“The RSI has reclaimed a bullish crossover, pointing to strong momentum. In the short term, the trend may remain firm, with the Nifty likely to move toward 26,300–26,440. Support is placed at 26,060–26,000. Buying on dips may be favoured as long as the index sustains above 26,000,” De said.

6. Rupee Vs Dollar

The rupee on Friday gave up its initial gains and ended 6 paise lower at 89.95 against the US dollar, after the Reserve Bank cut the key benchmark interest rate for the first time in six months.

Forex traders said the RBI’s rate cut is likely to weigh on the rupee, but the central bank’s decision to purchase government bonds worth up to Rs 1 lakh crore through open market operations (OMO), along with a USD 5 billion buy-sell swap, will provide support to the local currency.

“Beyond the rate cut, RBI’s decision to purchase government bonds worth up to Rs 1 lakh crore through OMO, combined with a USD 5 billion buy-sell swap, marks a decisive effort to restore durable liquidity and stabilise currency markets after the rupee’s sharp depreciation,” said Sachin Bajaj, Executive Vice President & Chief Investment Officer, Axis Max Life Insurance.

7. Corporate Action

A clutch of stocks will be in focus this week on account of corporate actions. Tuesday, December 9, is the record date for the rights issue of Deccan Gold Mines.

Friday will be the record date for the 5:1 stock split of Mrs. Bectors Food Specialities. It will also be the record date for the 1:1 bonus issue and 5:1 stock split of Bharat Rasayan. Additionally, Nureca and VLS Finance have set Friday as the record date for their share buybacks.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

India’s retail investors are staging a dramatic exodus from the stock market’s secondary segment, offloading Rs 4,729 crore worth of shares in FY26 so far, marking their worst selling streak since FY19, even as they pump a staggering Rs 30,000 crore into the booming IPO market during the same period.

The stark divergence reveals a fundamental shift in retail behavior: individual investors are selling existing holdings to chase listing gains and ignore concerns around startup founders and companies tapping into the IPO frenzy at rich valuations.

NSE data shows retail traders turned net sellers in four of the first seven months of FY26, with October 2025 recording the steepest monthly outflow of Rs 12,061 crore. This came after three consecutive months of net buying, indicating a sharp reversal in sentiment. Retail traders’ investment of Rs 29,370 crore in primary issuances during the current fiscal suggests that a significant portion of funds pulled out from existing stocks has been redirected to IPO subscriptions.

India’s IPO market has sustained remarkable buoyancy for the second consecutive year. Capital raised has already exceeded Rs 1.5 lakh crore in CY2025, placing it among the strongest years on record. With multiple issues lined up for December, 2025 is poised to surpass 2024 in total primary market mobilization. The number of IPOs has climbed steadily as well, rising from 57 in 2023 to 86 in 2024, and 93 in 2025, according to YES Securities.

But a troubling pattern has emerged beneath the surface. “A concerning structural trend is the rising share of Offer for Sale (OFS) transactions. In CY2025, OFS accounted for nearly 63% of total IPO proceeds, underscoring that promoters and private equity investors are increasingly monetising valuations. Excluding LIC (which distorts CY2022), the OFS share has been on a persistent upward trajectory, raising questions around the extent of fresh capital being infused into businesses,” said Hitesh Jain of YES Securities.

This means that nearly two-thirds of the Rs 1.5 lakh crore raised isn’t going into company coffers for expansion or operations but flowing into the pockets of existing investors looking to exit at peak valuations.

IPO flipping strategy

Market veteran Dipan Mehta acknowledges the dichotomy in the IPO space. “Not all IPOs are bad. Some of the venture capital funded IPOs, they are coming in a bit earlier than they would have and that is causing some amount of concern amongst investors, especially value investors that they are trading at extremely high valuations,” he said.

Mehta pointed to recent disappointments, noting that companies like Ola Electric, Urban Company, and Lenskart have corrected significantly post-listing. “But by and large for every two or three overvalued IPOs, one or two IPOs do come which are very reasonably valued, which have businesses which are making solid profits as well,” he added.

Critically, Mehta highlighted the driving force behind the IPO boom: “There is a whole class of investors who are totally focused on IPO. They apply IPOs in multiple names or through leverages and then they are flipping it on listing and that particular strategy, that particular activity is still generating very-very good returns.”

He emphasized that as long as this flipping opportunity exists, IPOs will continue to succeed in the market. “There is more than enough capital waiting in the country to be invested as well and these activities are giving very good returns, so it is just causing more and more investors to come into this particular market,” Mehta said.

Market expert Sandip Sabharwal struck a more cautious note, highlighting a valuation disconnect. “Most of the IPOs are tricky. Unfortunately, the valuations at which they are coming are too high and there are two different markets today – one, IPO market where small and medium companies are getting exits or are able to IPO at high valuations and there is a listed space of small and midcaps of very established companies which are actually cheaper than those companies,” he said.

Sabharwal made his preference clear: “For discerning investors it is very clear where you should be investing in. So, I am largely not enthused about the IPO. So, the last IPO which looked okay to me was LG and nothing after that.”

The retail frenzy for IPOs comes at a time when the Nifty is near all-time high but portfolios aren’t because smallcap and microcap indices are still down 9-12% from 52-week high levels.

Over the last five years, individual investors had been stalwart supporters of India’s secondary markets, accounting for more than 35% of total trading activity and registering cumulative net equity inflows of Rs 3.82 lakh crore. Including primary market investments, their total commitment to Indian equities exceeded Rs 5 lakh crore during this period, according to NSE.

The sustained participation in equities over the past five years has aligned with the broader market rally, supported by ample domestic liquidity, a stable macroeconomic backdrop, and continued confidence in long-term growth prospects. It also underscores deeper financialization of household savings and growing recognition of equities as a reliable avenue for wealth creation.

Cautious optimism for 2026

Looking ahead, market strategists recommend a measured approach. Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research at SAMCO Securities, suggests a diversified portfolio allocation: “I would prefer to keep a healthy mix of 40:30:10 in equity, precious metals and debt respectively. The remaining 20% will be kept in cash for better entry opportunities in equities at the time of corrections.”

Sheth recommends deploying this cash reserve strategically—10% of capital when the index falls 10% from current levels, and the remaining 10% on a further 10% decline.

Despite the current retail selling pressure, Sheth remains optimistic about market prospects. “With rising liquidity all around, I believe there is a chance of the Nifty surprising us on the upside. I expect it to trade in the range of 24,500-27,500 in 2026,” he said.

The question now is whether retail investors’ bet on IPOs will pay off better than holding onto secondary market positions or whether this represents a classic case of chasing performance at the wrong time, with promoters and PE firms smartly booking profits while retail money pours in.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Binance founder and former CEO Changpeng Zhao has shaken up the crypto community again with a new post about Bitcoin on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter). The founder, who many believe has called the top and bottom of the market various times, holds significant sway over the market, triggering major movements. Thus, it is no surprise that his latest post, talking about his participation in the crypto market in the past, is being interpreted by many as bullish.

Binance Founder Shows Where The Market Was In The Past

The post shared by the crypto founder shows what looks to be the price of Bitcoin sitting as low as $4,300. He highlights that this was from eight years ago in 2017, showing where the market was for the month of September and what happened after.

At the time, the market looks to be coming out of another bearish September, with the Bitcoin price trading below $5,000. However, the next few months, which were the last quarter of the year, turned out to be incredibly bullish for the Bitcoin price.

After September drew to a close, the month of October 2017 was significantly bullish, with the price quickly crossing the $5,000 threshold. In the next few months, the Bitcoin price ended up rising by over 200%, to reach a new all-time high of $19,000 before the 2018 bear market began.

Community Members Expect A Bitcoin Bull Run

Even though the post by the Binance founder read: “Not predicting the future. And don’t get too excited. A September in a past (my first) crypto cycle. Just data,” it did little to stop the speculation that followed. So far, the tweet has garnered more than 1 million views and 3,000 comments and quotes, with most predicting that the former Binance CEO is predicting a bull run.

One analyst points out that CZ had previously marked the local top and bottom and believes that the post is pointing out the concept of seasonality in the market. With CZ posting a chart that showed the Bitcoin price before it went on a bull run, the analyst believes that this could be the start of another run.

Another community member, Stygian, claims that CZ has been the one steering the market up or down, and that people can see it. However, another response goes against the grain, saying that what is happening now is simply wealth transfer and not the kind of rally that retail is expecting.

Despite the conversations that the post has triggered, the market continued to trend low, with Bitcoin skirting around $113,000 at the time of the post. With the opening of the new month, investors continue to anticipate a bullish rally for Bitcoin and the entire market.

Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s performance in recent days has been nothing short of notable with an impressive rally. The leading cryptocurrency has managed to surge past $124,000 this week to register a new all-time high of $124,128 in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data. Interestingly, technical analysis from a crypto analyst known pseudonymously as Stockmoney Lizards predicts that Bitcoin is now approaching a critical phase that will send its price over $300,000 by 2026.

Bitcoin Reaches Pivotal Phase In Long-Term Trend

Stockmoney Lizards shared a long-term Bitcoin macro chart that combines a price channel with a momentum oscillator in a post on the social media platform X. The analysis, which was done on the 2-week candlestick timeframe chart, shows that Bitcoin has been trading upwards within a rising parallel channel since 2012, with major cycle tops touching the channel’s upper resistance line.

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Recent price action has seen the Bitcoin price climbing toward the midline of the channel. According to the analyst, this is the most critical phase, and the current movement suggests it is about to repeat impulsive waves to the upside like both the 2018 and 2021 bull runs. 

Furthermore, the analyst pointed to a bounce on the oscillator at the bottom of the chart, much like it did in 2017 and 2020 before the rallies in the subsequent year. This oscillator, combined with recent technical factors, has led the analyst to forecast a potential base Bitcoin price target of $180,000 to $200,000 by early 2026, while leaving open the possibility of an even stronger rally.

Path To A $300,000 Bull Case

Although Stockmoney Lizards noted that Bitcoin has matured and its market behavior is no longer a perfect mirror of past cycles, the market still has room for a “my-neighbor-just-asked-me-about-Bitcoin” type of frenzy phase. This stage, which is going to be characterized by a surge in mainstream retail interest, will be the one to generate the needed parabolic price surge for the bigger bull case. 

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If such a scenario unfolds, the analyst projected that Bitcoin’s bull case could extend beyond $300,000 before the current macro cycle peaks. Interestingly, the chart projection shows a price target as high as $350,000. 

Bitcoin is already up by about 107% in the past year. Its rally in the past weeks is based on a few factors ranging from expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts to regulatory green lights for cryptocurrencies in retirement plans. A surge to $300,000 and $350,000 by 2026 would translate to another 145% and 188% increase, respectively, from the current price level.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $121,685, up by 1.8% in the past 24 hours. It has retraced by 1.9% from its new all-time high of $124,128 about seven hours ago.

Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Shares of Berkshire Hathaway have remained under pressure since Warren Buffett unveiled his succession plans, falling more than 12% and underperforming the broader U.S. market. The stock is now heading toward its longest losing streak in three years, as investors grow increasingly uneasy about the conglomerate’s post-Buffett trajectory.

Since May 3, when Buffett revealed his intention to hand over the reins of the Omaha-based investment group, Berkshire’s Class B shares have shed more than a tenth of their value. The decline has pared year-to-date gains to just 4.5%, falling short of the S&P 500’s 7% advance over the same period.

The slump has extended into the summer months, with the stock logging losses in six of the past seven weeks. Should it finish July in negative territory, it would mark Berkshire’s third consecutive monthly decline, its longest such stretch since June 2022.

Market rethinks post-Buffett future

The sell-off highlights market unease over the company’s future in the absence of its long-standing leader. Buffett, who transformed Berkshire from a struggling textile firm into a sprawling conglomerate over six decades, has been a singular presence in global investing. His departure raises questions about whether the group’s next generation of leaders can maintain the same performance edge.Still, Buffett has long sought to temper expectations about Berkshire’s future returns.

“With our present mix of businesses, Berkshire should do a bit better than the average American corporation and, more important, should also operate with materially less risk of permanent loss of capital,” he wrote in his 2023 annual letter. “Anything beyond ‘slightly better,’ though, is wishful thinking.”

He also acknowledged the difficulties of deploying Berkshire’s vast cash pile, noting that the scale of the company makes it harder to find investments capable of moving the needle.

Legacy remains intact

Despite recent weakness, Buffett’s long-term record at Berkshire remains unmatched. Since taking control in the 1960s, he has delivered a cumulative return of 5,502,284%, more than twice the average annual gain of the S&P 500 over that period.Even so, as the conglomerate adjusts to a future without Buffett at the helm, the stock’s underperformance suggests that markets are beginning to recalibrate their expectations, not just for earnings, but for the intangible value of the Buffett brand itself.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)