The analysis, part of the Economic Report of the President, outlines both a political risk and a messaging opportunity for President Donald Trump, whose public approval has slumped because of concerns about his tariffs, the Iran war and his unfulfilled promises to slash inflation and unleash stronger growth.

Trump signed two executive orders in March directing federal agencies to reduce housing regulatory burdens and make it easier for smaller banks to provide mortgages but he’s been slow to take other steps that would show that high housing costs are a top priority for his administration.

The White House has been trying to focus on housing and other affordability issues for months to get ready for what’s expected to be a challenging midterm season for Republicans, but it has been thrown off course by a series of global issues. In January, a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that had been billed as focusing on housing turned into a showdown for Trump over control of Greenland.

Meanwhile, the Iran war has driven up the cost of buying homes, with average rates for 30-year mortgages jumping from just under 6% to 6.37%.

Trump also has argued in favor of keeping home prices high to protect values for existing owners. “I don’t want to drive housing prices down,” Trump told his Cabinet earlier this year. “I want to drive housing prices up for people that own their homes, and they can be assured that’s what’s going to happen.”

The report lays out a blueprint on housing

The housing chapter of the annual economic report, obtained by The Associated Press before its release, lays out a blueprint for how more home construction would help the middle class and the overall economy, setting up an argument that Trump could make to voters.

Put together by staff at the White House Council of Economic Advisers, it finds there would be 10 million more houses in the country if “homebuilding and the growth of the single-family housing stock had continued at their historical pace instead of falling dramatically” after the 2008 global financial crisis. That crisis was caused largely by a wave of defaults in the housing market, where prices had been fueled by problematic lending practices.

The analysis notes that home prices have risen 82% since 2000, while incomes are up just 12% — a mismatch that had been masked for a period by historically low mortgage rates. But when rates jumped with inflation in the aftermath of the pandemic, monthly mortgage costs also rose for buyers and affording a home, a signifier of middle class status, became a top concern for voters under 40.

The White House maintains that the executive orders in March, in addition to the plans to purchase mortgage-backed securities, show that the president is focused on housing issues.

The report says that various regulations on home construction, which it calls “the bureaucrat tax,” add more than $100,000 in costs to building. That cost includes changing the building codes over the past decade, compliance costs and zoning approval fees, among other expenses.

By the report’s estimates, a reduction in those regulatory costs could help spur construction of as many as 13.2 million homes. That could add on average 1.3 percentage points to annual economic growth over the next decade and support 2 million manufacturing and construction jobs, it argues.

Trump could decide to make federal funding to state and local governments contingent on reducing some of the regulations, according to an administration official, who insisted on anonymity to discuss the report before its release.

The report also attacks the green energy housing standards introduced during the Biden administration as a factor in increasing construction costs. Those steps gave preferences for more efficient air conditioning units and water heaters as well as higher standards for the related duct work.

But getting rid of some of those requirements could increase other costs for homeowners over the long run, such as utility bills.

The report relies on a 2021 analysis by National Association of Home Builders that says the standards could add up to $31,000 to the price of a new home, while it could take as many as 90 years for a homebuyer “to realize a payback on the added cost of the home.”

It is not clear how much savings would occur from rolling back Biden-era housing standards because of existing legal challenges regarding their enforcement and different practices by states. In March, a federal judge in Texas agreed with 15 states led by Republicans that said the standards for federally backed housing were unlawful.

Bitcoin (BTC) traders appear caught between caution and opportunity as Easter approaches and geopolitical tensions from the Iran conflict continue. A fresh analysis report from K33 Research highlights a surge in bearish bets that could signal either deeper trouble ahead or a setup for a sharp rebound once the holiday liquidity reduction eases. The report emphasizes how many traders have moved into short positions at levels rarely seen before, even as Bitcoin holds relatively steady compared to other cryptocurrencies and traditional assets affected by the same tensions and volatility. 

Bitcoin Traders Pile Into Shorts Amid Easter Caution

Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33, has highlighted the aggressive caution in Bitcoin derivatives markets right now. Notably, leveraged short exposure through major Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has climbed sharply in recent sessions, reaching the second-highest level on record. This marks a 20% jump in just days, reflecting concentrated selling pressure from institutional and retail investors who are preparing for thinner trading volumes and liquidity during the Easter period. 

Lunde noted that such aggressive positioning typically occurs when sentiment turns very defensive, as people become more worried and fearful about current market conditions. He indicated that in the past, when similar behavior occurred, it often came right before the market changed direction, suggesting that this may be a bottoming signal. 

In addition to cautious sentiment, Lunde stated that funding rates in perpetual futures contracts have remained negative for more than a month, the longest streak since the brutal bear market in 2022. He suggested that persistent negative funding often indicates that shorts are paying longs to keep their positions open. He noted that this behavior could trigger a short squeeze if prices start rising and short traders rush to buy back their positions to avoid losses. 

Lunde also pointed out that the recent behavior of short traders, combined with Bitcoin approaching the Easter holiday at oversold levels, suggests that too many traders are expecting prices to fall. Because so many expect a drop, prices could rise suddenly once the holiday period ends and normal trading activity resumes.

What Easter And Geopolitics Mean For Long Or Shorts Bets

In the report, Lunde noted that Bitcoin has followed a predictable seasonal pattern around Easter for six straight years. During this holiday period, trading volumes drop noticeably and volatility compresses as big trading firms and banks in Europe get quieter or stop trading. 

However, the Bitcoin researcher highlights that this year might be different from past periods. He noted that the rising tensions in the Middle East might disrupt the usual quiet Easter trading period. Currently, there is a lot of talk and concern about oil facilities being at risk due to the ongoing conflict. As a result, investors are becoming more cautious even as they decide whether to go long or short. 

Based on the recent activities, two possible outcomes could emerge after the holidays. Because many traders are betting on prices falling, any major bad news could cause a sharp drop, especially when trading activity is low. However, when traders become extremely bearish, it often signals that sellers are exhausted and buyers may soon take over, signaling a possible trend shift. 

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Nifty ended with sharp gains on Wednesday, ending its two-session fall after the US President hinted at de-escalation in the Iran-Israel war. A positive divergence on the daily RSI indicates the possibility of short-term bullish momentum.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said the sharp rebound found support near the rising trendline on the daily chart, drawn from the June 2024 and April 2025 lows. The recent price action shows signs of fatigue, which is typical after a sharp move, as markets often consolidate before deciding the next direction, he said. “Although the broader trend still appears weak and tilted in favour of the bears, the index’s closeness to key support, along with the RSI divergence points to early signs of a potential recovery. On the upside, resistance is placed at 22,800, above which the index could move towards 23,000 and higher. On the downside, a decisive fall below 22,200 may revive bearish momentum,” De said.

Nifty ended with gains on Wednesday aided by strong action in IT and auto stocks though financials, FMCG and energy stocks capped the gains. It remained volatile through the session as sentiments of past few sessions weighed on the markets.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities said investors largely remained on the sidelines, as the index has spent the last two days trading broadly within the range of its 200-DMA (25,341) and 21-EMA (25,610). He expects the market to remain sideways until there is an improvement in investor confidence. De places immediate support at 25,300 and expects the rally to continue as long as this level is maintained. On the higher end, resistance is seen at 25,650–25,750.

Here are 2 stock recommendations for Thursday:

Buy Central Bank of India at Rs 40.25 | Upside: 6%

Stop Loss: Rs 39

Target: Rs 42.75

On a daily time frame, the Central Bank of India has given a breakout of Rectangle Pattern on the upside, indicating a positive trend in the stock. The Fast (21) EMA trading above the Slow (50) EMA indicates a positive trend with price trading above both the EMA indicating strength on the upside. On the Directional front, DI+ is trading above DI- indicating a positive trend and ADX trading on the northern direction indicates strength in the move.(Virat Jagad, Technical Research Analyst, Bonanza Portfolio)

Buy Colgate Palmolive at Rs 2,270.4 | Upside: 4%

Stop Loss: Rs 2,230

Target: Rs 2,350

Colgate-Palmolive (India) Ltd has signaled a strong bullish breakout after moving above its recent consolidation range. This suggests the stock is entering a new upward phase. The 21-day EMA is trending above the 50-day EMA, with the price holding firm above both—a classic sign of short-term strength. The Directional Index (DMI) shows buyers are in control, while a rising ADX confirms the trend is gaining significant momentum.

(Virat Jagad, Technical Research Analyst, Bonanza Portfolio)

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

Walmart said Thursday that holiday-quarter sales rose nearly 6% and its quarterly earnings and revenue surpassed Wall Street’s expectations as gains in e-commerce, advertising and its third-party marketplace boosted its business.

For the full current fiscal year, Walmart said it expects net sales to increase by 3.5% to 4.5% and adjusted earnings per share to range from $2.75 to $2.85. That earnings outlook fell short of Wall Street’s expectations of $2.96 per share, according to LSEG. 

In an interview with CNBC, Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey said speedy deliveries from stores are helping Walmart attract more shoppers, particularly those with higher incomes. 

“Our ability to serve customers at the scale that we have, combined with the speed that we now have, is really translating into continued market share gains,” he said.

Rainey said the company’s market share gains cut across all incomes, but were larger among upper-income households. For example, with fashion, a category that grew by a mid-single-digit percentage in the fourth quarter, almost all of that increase came from households with an annual income over $100,000, he said.

In the coming months, Rainey said he expects price increases from inflation and President Donald Trump’s tariff hikes to ease. Inflation at Walmart in the U.S. in the fourth quarter was just above 1%, with slightly lower inflation for food and slightly higher for general merchandise, he said.

“It seems to be a little bit more of a normalized price environment,” he said. “I think we have, largely as a retail industry, absorbed or seen the brunt of the impact from tariffs.”

While that comment is welcome news to many U.S. shoppers who buy at the country’s largest grocer, it may be too early to say what pricing trends at the retailer mean for the rest of the economy. Though Walmart is viewed as a key barometer for the wider retail industry, it traditionally has had more power than its competitors to keep prices low in part because of its scale.

Here is what the big-box retailer reported for the fiscal fourth quarter compared with Wall Street’s estimates, according to a survey of analysts by LSEG:

• Earnings per share: 74 cents adjusted vs. 73 cents expected
• Revenue:  $190.66 billion vs. $190.43 billion expected

Shares of Walmart were up about 2% in morning trading Thursday.

Yet as of Wednesday’s close, shares of the company have climbed about 22% over the past year and roughly 14% so far this year. That’s outpaced the S&P 500′s 12% gain over the past year and less than 1% rise year to date.

Walmart’s results Thursday also show an inflection point in the industry. For the first time, Amazon topped Walmart as the largest company by annual revenue, as the company posted $716.9 billion in sales for its most recent fiscal year compared with $713.2 billion for Walmart.

The companies aren’t an exact comparison, as Amazon gets a sizeable piece of its revenue from cloud computing and other tech services. Yet it underscores the competition between the two rivals, particularly as Walmart follows a similar playbook by growing revenue streams outside of brick-and-mortar retail, like from ads and its marketplace.

In the three-month period that ended Jan. 31, Walmart’s net income decreased to $4.24 billion, or 53 cents per share, compared with $5.25 billion, or 65 cents per share, in the year-ago period.

Excluding one-time items like investment gains and losses, legal settlements and business reorganization, Walmart’s adjusted earnings per share were 74 cents.

Revenue rose from $180.55 billion in the year-ago quarter. 

Comparable sales jumped 4.6% for Walmart’s U.S. business and 4% for Sam’s Club in the fourth quarter, excluding fuel, compared with the year-ago period. The industry metric, also called same-store sales, includes sales from stores and clubs open for at least a year.

Walmart’s e-commerce sales in the U.S. rose 27% compared with the year-ago period, fueled by store-fulfilled pickup and delivery of online orders, along with the retailer’s third-party marketplace. That marked the company’s 15th straight quarter of double-digit digital gains. Global e-commerce sales increased 24% year over year.

For the company’s U.S. business, e-commerce accounted for 23% of sales – a record high for Walmart. The digital growth in the quarter included an approximately 50% gain in store-fulfilled deliveries and a roughly 41% increase in sales from Walmart Connect, its advertising business, the company said.

While Walmart is gaining ground, its growth is not evenly distributed across income groups.

In the interview with CNBC, Rainey said the company does “see some pressure on the lowest income cohort.” He said Walmart has tracked year-over-year spending trends by income group. Like in the prior quarter, he said it saw that spending among the highest earners compared to lower-income groups “had gapped out a little bit.”

The trend he described reflects what some economists have called the “K-shaped economy.”

Walmart’s quarterly report marked the first under its new CEO, John Furner. Furner, the former Walmart U.S. CEO and a more than three-decade company veteran, succeeded Doug McMillon as Walmart’s top executive on Feb. 1.

Investors largely expect Furner to focus on similar priorities as his predecessor McMillon, such as increasing Walmart’s online business, attracting more customers across incomes, and ramping up higher-margin businesses like its third-party marketplace and advertising.

Along with getting a new CEO, Walmart has hit other milestones lately. Its stock switched to the tech-heavy Nasdaq in December and its market value hit $1 trillion earlier this month.

Along with its results Thursday, Walmart also announced a new $30 billion share repurchase authorization, replacing a $20 billion buyback program approved in 2022.

Nifty ended with gains for the second day in a row on Wednesday, though IT stocks dealt a severe blow to the markets even as most other sectors pitched in continuing their Tuesday momentum aided by the India-US trade deal. The RSI stands at 54.61 and is in uptrend while remaining below the strong bullish zone.

Commenting on the current trends, Hitesh Tailor, Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking said that index’s gap-down opening and later a sideways trade indicates initial hesitation and lack of strong directional conviction among participants. But the index staged a recovery in the latter half of the session and finally closed around 25,776, reflecting buying interest at lower levels and underlying resilience, he said, placing immediate resistance at 25,900–25,950, while support is at 25,600–25,650.

Here are 2 stock recommendations for Thursday:

Buy Blue Star at Rs 1,840-1,860 | Upside: 5%

Stop-loss: Rs 1,800
Target: Rs 1,950

Blue Star is showing a strong bullish breakout on the daily chart, so buying in the Rs 1,840–Rs 1,860 zone looks favorable, especially on a mild pullback toward the breakout area that has now turned into support; the stop loss should be kept at Rs 1,800 to protect against a false breakout and a drop back below the structure base, while upside targets come in at Rs 1,950 as the first resistance zone and Rs 2,000 as the next psychological and technical

level, supported by strong volume expansion, price moving above key moving averages, and RSI holding above 60, indicating momentum is with the bulls, and traders can trail the stop loss higher once the first target is achieved to lock in gains while riding the trend.

(Drumil Vithlani, Technical Research Analyst, Bonanza Portfolio)

Buy Kirloskar Oil a Rs 1,220-1,240 | Upside: 5%

Stop-loss: Rs 1,160
Target: Rs 1,300

Kirloskar Oil Engines is showing a fresh bullish breakout from a falling trend line on the daily chart, backed by an improving RSI near the 60 zone and price reclaiming short-term moving averages, indicating momentum is shifting upward. buying around Rs 1,220–Rs 1,240 looks favorable, preferably on a small dip toward the breakout zone, with a stop loss at Rs 1,160 below the recent swing support and moving average cluster to manage risk, while upside targets come at Rs 1,300 as the first resistance from the prior supply area and Rs 1,360 as the next level if momentum sustains, and traders can trail the stop higher once price sustains above Rs 1,300 to protect gains as the structure starts forming higher lows again.

(Drumil Vithlani, Technical Research Analyst, Bonanza Portfolio)

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

A recent post by crypto analyst Stockmoney Lizards on X suggests that the current Bitcoin structure is giving bears “the perfect opportunity” to short the market down to $40,000. His message was paired with a chart showing Bitcoin falling below an important resistance ever since it broke below $100,000, creating what appears to be a clean continuation setup for traders expecting deeper losses. 

However, although the chart highlights a similar bearish structure in 2022, the analysis behind his post points to a more layered interpretation of what may come next for Bitcoin.

The Setup Bears Believe Is Finally Here

In the chart he shared, Stockmoney Lizards showed how Bitcoin’s latest breakdown resembles the 2022 pattern, when the price action rejected a major resistance level and fell sharply into what later became a large accumulation zone.  The current structure shows a similar rejection just above the $100,000 zone, followed by a drop below the weekly EMA50. This move has brought Bitcoin into a region that is similar to the range where accumulation formed in the earlier cycle. 

An overlay of the new price action on top of the previous one shows the path downward seems almost predetermined, creating the impression that the Bitcoin price is setting up a natural decline to as low as $40,000 in the coming weeks and months. Bitcoin is currently trading at $90,240. A crash to $40,000 would mean wiping out roughly 55% of its value from here, effectively erasing the entire progress it has built over the past two years.

Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @StockmoneyL On X

Why The Perfect Short Is Not The Analyst’s Real Message

After the post gained traction, Stockmoney Lizards stepped in to clarify that his message had been taken too literally. His invitation for traders to short down to $40,000 was intentionally exaggerated, and the market does not behave this way. 

He clarified that he does not foresee a collapse into a deep bear market. Instead, he believes Bitcoin may consolidate, possibly sweep local lows, but not have a prolonged breakdown. Furthermore, he noted that the worst-case scenario would be a touch of the weekly EMA200, and this is not a place where bull markets end. The real midterm prediction is a higher move for the Bitcoin price.

Before posting the supposedly bearish prediction, Stockmoney Lizards had shared another analysis describing Bitcoin as being close to the endboss at the weekly EMA50 indicator. 

Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @StockmoneyL On X

That earlier chart offered a clearer view of his actual stance. In it, he predicted that Bitcoin was approaching a major technical pivot and that he expected upward movement into the end of December and Q1 2025. Therefore, the weekly EMA50 is the barrier that Bitcoin needs to reclaim in order to launch its next phase of bullish momentum.

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

“The Big Short” fame investor Michael Burry took aim at electric automaker Tesla in a blog post, saying the Elon Musk-led company is “ridiculously overvalued”, days after he voiced concerns about the current AI boom.

Burry estimated that Tesla dilutes its shareholders at about 3.6% per year with no buybacks, and Musk’s record-breaking pay package will continue the dilution.

“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry wrote in his Substack newsletter ‘Cassandra Unchained’ on Sunday.

The pay package could get the Tesla CEO as much as $1 trillion in stock over the next decade, provided Musk, already the world’s richest man, ensures the company achieves a series of milestones.

Tesla’s stock traded around 209 times its forward earnings as of last close, well above its own five-year average of 94. The S&P 500, meanwhile, trades at around 22 times its forward earnings, according to data compiled by LSEG.

Tesla did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

The bearish view against Tesla is not Burry’s first. Scion Asset Management disclosed a large bearish bet via options on Tesla in May 2021.

He later told CNBC in October 2021 that he was no longer betting against the company and that his position was just a trade.

Burry’s short position against subprime mortgage securities during the housing market crash was chronicled in Michael Lewis’s book “The Big Short” and its film adaptation.

Recently, Burry has stepped up criticism of technology heavyweights such as Nvidia and Palantir Technologies, questioning the cloud infrastructure boom and accusing major providers of using aggressive accounting to inflate profits from their massive hardware investments.

Burry launched ‘Cassandra Unchained’ in November, saying that the paid newsletter had his “full attention” after he closed his hedge fund Scion Asset Management and returned capital to investors.