Bitcoin’s market cap stood at roughly $1.5 trillion as the sell-off unfolded, with daily trading volume climbing past $32 billion — a sign that traders were moving fast in response to a rapidly shifting news cycle.

A Fabricated Deal Sets Off The Selloff

The chaos started when Iranian state television reported that Tehran and Washington had agreed on a memorandum of understanding to ease months of conflict.

The draft reportedly called for restoring commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz within a month, a US troop pullback from Iran’s immediate surroundings, and the lifting of a naval blockade.

Iran’s broadcaster acknowledged the measure was still unofficial. Reports note that Tehran said it would not proceed without what it called “tangible verification,” and that a final agreement could be taken to the UN Security Council within 60 days if talks moved forward.

Markets Move On Mixed Signals

Bitcoin had been trading above $75,000 before the story broke. According to Coingecko data, prices slid to a daily low of $73,200 before clawing back slightly to around $75,115 — still down about 1% on the day.

The White House wasted no time dismissing the report. Officials said the MoU that Iranian state media released was “a complete fabrication,” and warned that nobody should take Iranian state media claims at face value.

US President Donald Trump went further, saying the US was not satisfied with any deal Iran had put forward. That statement landed hard on markets already rattled by conflicting signals from both sides.

Washington Shuts The Door

The broader backdrop feeding the market reaction involves months of conflict that have already disrupted shipping in the Gulf region, raising fears about energy supplies and financial stability globally.

Reports indicate the current tensions trace back to fighting between Iran and Israel earlier this year, which pulled US forces deeper into the region.

Any genuine ceasefire or trade corridor agreement would have carried real economic weight — which is why even an unverified report moved prices as sharply as it did.

The episode underscores just how sensitive crypto markets have become to geopolitical developments, particularly ones that touch global shipping and energy supply chains.

Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView

Data shows the Estimated Leverage Ratio has seen a sharp decline for Ethereum on Binance, a sign that traders have been pulling back on risk.

Ethereum Leverage Ratio Has Dropped To A Value Of 0.57

As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, speculative activity in the Binance Ethereum derivatives market has observed a cooldown recently. The indicator of relevance here is the “Estimated Leverage Ratio” (ELR), which tracks the ratio between the ETH Open Interest and Derivatives Exchange Reserve.

The former metric, the Open Interest, measures the total amount of positions related to the cryptocurrency that are currently open on a given centralized derivatives exchange. Meanwhile, the latter is the amount of the asset sitting in wallets connected to that platform. Since the ELR takes the ratio of the two, it essentially tells us about how much leverage investors are opting for against the average position.

When the value of the indicator is high, it means the Open Interest is significant compared to the Exchange Reserve. Such a trend suggests the average trader on the exchange is opting for a high amount of risk. On the other hand, the metric being low implies investors aren’t taking on much leverage on their positions, a potential sign that market interest in speculative activity is low.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Ethereum ELR for Binance over the last few months:

The value of the metric seems to have plunged over the last few weeks | Source: CryptoQuant

As displayed in the above graph, the Ethereum ELR for Binance surged to a high level back in March. This uptick in leverage usage coincided with a recovery run in the cryptocurrency. The rally failed to sustain, and with it, speculation also noted a cooldown. In April, the market again made a recovery, and while investors took some risks initially, the ELR interestingly ended up following an overall downtrend. This means that this new surge hasn’t been able to attract the more speculative traders to the cryptocurrency.

Today, the ELR is sitting at a value of 0.57, implying that the Open Interest is 57% of the Binance derivatives reserve. For comparison, the metric peaked at 0.76 back in March. While the decline in the indicator does signal that investors have become more risk-averse, it may not entirely be a bad sign for Ethereum. In the past, periods with extreme leverage usage in the derivatives market have often unwound with volatility.

Given that the ELR has calmed down recently, it’s possible that the market could show some stability in the near future. That said, it only remains to be seen how the metric will develop in the coming days.

ETH Price

At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading around $2,330, unchanged from one week ago.

Looks like the price of the coin has been consolidating recently | Source: ETHUSDT on TradingView

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Shares of Urban Company will be in focus heading into trade on Monday after it reported a sharp rise in consolidated net loss for the March quarter to Rs 161 crore, compared with Rs 2.8 crore in the same period last year, even as the company posted strong revenue growth.

Revenue from operations for Q4FY26 rose 43% year-on-year to Rs 426 crore from Rs 298 crore a year ago. On a sequential basis, revenue grew 11% from Rs 383 crore reported in the October-December quarter of FY26. The company’s losses also widened sharply quarter-on-quarter, increasing nearly eightfold from Rs 21 crore in Q3FY26.

The professional services platform reported a 42% year-on-year rise in net transacting value (NTV) to Rs 1,148 crore during the quarter, the highest level in the last 15 quarters.

Adjusted EBITDA loss for Q4FY26 stood at Rs 98 crore, while adjusted EBITDA excluding InstaHelp came in at Rs 22 crore. The company also reported a 160-basis-point improvement in margins.

For the full financial year, NTV increased 31% year-on-year to Rs 4,290 crore, while revenue from operations rose 36% to Rs 1,556 crore. According to the company’s filing, both NTV and revenue growth accelerated for the second consecutive year.

Among key business segments, India Consumer Services excluding InstaHelp posted 26% year-on-year NTV growth in Q4FY26, marking the strongest growth in 11 quarters. International operations across the UAE and Singapore recorded 84% year-on-year growth in NTV during the quarter.

The company said both India Consumer Services, excluding InstaHelp and the international business remained profitable in Q4FY26 while also improving margins on a yearly basis.Native NTV rose 67% year-on-year in the March quarter, while revenue from the segment increased 75%.

InstaHelp delivered 2.7 million orders and recorded Rs 40 crore in NTV in Q4FY26, compared with 1.6 million orders and Rs 28 crore in NTV in Q3FY26. March alone saw over 1.1 million orders.

Sensex, Nifty today: Catch all the LIVE stock market action here
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Ethereum is experiencing a notable shift in derivatives positioning as high-leverage long positions decline sharply across the market. The reduction suggests that many overly aggressive bullish trades have either been closed voluntarily or forced out through recent liquidation events.

Could Ethereum Be Preparing For A Short Squeeze Next?

Crypto investor and data analyst known as CW on X pointed out that Ethereum is going through a significant deleveraging phase as high-leverage long positions continue to decline significantly across the market. At the same time, short positions have increased slightly, indicating that the market is not yet heavily crowded on the bearish side. 

Related Reading

The overall scale of high-leverage exposure remains relatively low, suggesting reduced systemic risk compared to earlier phases. Furthermore, most of the greedy long positions have already been liquidated, with the next attention now shifting toward short position liquidations. 

Amid this market phase, Ethereum whales are showing a behavior not seen in over a year, potentially signaling a major shift in market dynamics. An analyst known as Ali Charts has revealed that since October 6, 2025, wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 ETH have undergone a significant regime change in their market behaviour.

Before this shift, this cohort was in a steady accumulation regime. Between April and October 6, 2025, their holdings climbed from approximately 12.95 million ETH to nearly 15.95 million ETH. However, that trend has now reversed sharply. 

Since October 6, holdings for these mid-tier whales have decreased from 15.95 million ETH to roughly 12.52 million ETH, representing a 21.5% decline in their total position.

With a sizable amount of supply entering the market through whale distribution, any sustained move toward the $3,000 level may now depend on a fresh wave of institutional or retail demand capable of absorbing that selling pressure.

Ethereum Relative Weakness To Bitcoin

Ethereum continues to show signs of weakness relative to Bitcoin, with recent market action reinforcing a more fragile short-term structure. Crypto trader KriptoHolder has also noted that selling pressure on ETH has intensified, pushing price action lower toward the $2,273 region.

Related Reading

At the same time, retail traders remain heavily skewed to the long side, with approximately 73.19% positioned bullish, while short holding positions at around 26.80%, reflecting a crowded trade that often becomes vulnerable during downturns. However, the Whales vs Retail Delta currently sits at -22.01, showing that the whale-side continues to apply significant selling pressure.

According to KriptoHolder, ETH would likely need to see two major shifts: a reduction in aggressive whale-side selling and the return of meaningful spot market buying support, before a stronger rebound to the upside becomes possible. For now, ETH appears stuck in a more vulnerable position, with market internals showing less resilience than BTC.

Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

A 47-year-old resident of Balapitiya was reportedly attacked to death using a sharp weapon following an escalation of a dispute within the Ambalangoda Police Division.

Ambalangoda Police initiated investigations after receiving information that the victim had succumbed to injuries sustained in a sharp-weapon attack while receiving treatment at Ambalangoda Hospital.

Preliminary investigations have revealed that the murder was committed last afternoon (08) after a dispute between the deceased and another individual intensified, resulting in the victim being assaulted with a weapon.

The suspect has fled the area, and the Ambalangoda Police are conducting further investigations to apprehend him.

Over 300,000 Bitcoin have quietly moved into long-term holder wallets in the past 30 days — a shift that analysts say reflects growing conviction among serious investors even as broader market mood remains fragile.

Sentiment Index Climbs To Highest Point Since January

That accumulation is happening against a backdrop of improving, if still cautious, market sentiment. The Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index surged 14 points in a single day to reach a score of 46 out of 100 — the highest reading since January 18 and the biggest one-day jump in more than three months.

Bitcoin supply is moving into stronger hands.

Over the last 30 days:
• Long Term Holder Supply: +303K BTC
• ETF Netflows: +16.8K BTC
• Strategy: +53.0K BTC

And meanwhile:
• Short Term Holder Supply: -290K BTC pic.twitter.com/LeoKkZ3MMq

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) April 22, 2026

The score remains in the “Fear” zone, where it has been stuck since mid-January, but the speed of the move caught attention across trading circles. Bitcoin itself held near $78k after briefly climbing to $79,500, a gain of roughly 5% over a 20-hour window.

The index score of 46 sits just below the neutral threshold of 50. Getting there matters, but the market still has ground to cover.

Futures Market Leads The Push

Not all of the momentum behind Bitcoin’s rise came from the same place. According to CryptoQuant’s analysis, the rally was driven entirely by demand in the perpetual futures market.

Spot demand — buying on actual exchanges rather than through derivatives — has been contracting, albeit slowly. CryptoQuant flagged that a price correction could follow if traders begin taking profits while spot interest remains weak.

Speculative rally: The recent Bitcoin price increase is completely driven by demand in the perpetual futures market. Meanwhile, spot demand is still contracting (although at a slower pace).

The same happened on January, when Bitcoin peaked at $98K.

There are risks of a… pic.twitter.com/HDt157QJwJ

— Julio Moreno (@jjcmoreno) April 22, 2026

Perp-driven moves without matching spot activity have historically been short-lived, and that pattern is worth watching here.

Strategy, the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, has been among the most aggressive buyers, snapping up 53,000 Bitcoin over the past month alone.

Reports from CryptoQuant indicate the broader supply shift points to coins moving from short-term to long-term holders — a sign, analysts say, that the asset is finding a more stable base of ownership.

Retail Traders Yet To Return In Force

One notable gap in the recovery is retail participation. Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan has said publicly that everyday traders have not returned to the market at the same volumes seen in previous cycles.

That matters because the Fear & Greed Index draws heavily from retail-driven data points — Google search volume and social media activity related to crypto. Without a pickup in those signals, the index faces a ceiling.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView

HDFC Bank’s American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) on New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) fell another 4%, indicating extending of losses after the stock’s sharp correction on Thursday that saw it shed about 5% and briefly erase nearly Rs 1 lakh crore in investor wealth. The continued weakness in ADRs reflects lingering investor concerns following the abrupt resignation of former chairman Atanu Chakraborty, even as the bank’s management and board have sought to downplay the development.

On Thursday, the stock witnessed heavy selling pressure, with market cap erosion at one point touching around Rs 1 lakh crore. The selloff was triggered after Chakraborty stepped down, citing that certain “happenings and practices” within the bank over the past two years were not aligned with his personal values and ethics. However, the absence of specific details has added to uncertainty.

HDFC Bank chief executive and managing director Sashidhar Jagdishan said the board had urged Chakraborty to reconsider his resignation and elaborate on the concerns. “Every board member” attempted to persuade him to withdraw or clarify his remarks, but he declined, Jagdishan said.

Board members also indicated they were “baffled” by the move, noting that no specific issues were formally raised during discussions. Despite the sharp market reaction, analysts are increasingly viewing the correction as an opportunity rather than a signal of deeper concerns.

Deven Choksey said the fall has pushed the stock into a “deep value” zone, though he acknowledged that valuations may now reflect a discount due to recent developments.

Ishan Tanna of Ashika Capital said the situation appears tactical rather than structural. “The recent resignation of the Chairman looks more like a buy-on-dips opportunity rather than a structural concern,” he said, adding that the bank’s long-standing track record of strong processes provides comfort.

Tanna also highlighted that management commentary points to differences in value systems rather than any regulatory or compliance issues. “It seems to be more about differences in value systems, and not related to any regulatory or compliance problems,” he said.This view is broadly echoed by market participants. According to sources cited by ET Now, the resignation was not linked to any concerns raised by the Reserve Bank of India but stemmed from prolonged differences over certain practices.

Paresh Bhagat, CIO at Veer Growth Fund, said the development does not materially alter the bank’s fundamentals. “The absence of any stated business or financial concerns reinforces that this is not an operational signal,” he said, adding that leadership continuity at the CEO level remains intact.

While near-term sentiment remains cautious, the Street appears to be focusing on valuations and long-term fundamentals, even as clarity on the developments surrounding the resignation remains limited.

GIFT Nifty was trading nearly 807 points lower on late Tuesday, or 3% lower, indicating a weak start for Indian equities on Wednesday when markets reopen after the Holi holiday. Domestic markets were shut on Tuesday, leaving investors to digest fresh geopolitical developments and US President Donald Trump’s comments that the conflict with Iran could last up to four weeks.

When Indian equities last traded on Monday, they had already come under heavy pressure. The BSE Sensex had plunged over 2,700 points in early trade before recovering some ground to close 1,048 points lower at 80,238, down 1.29%. The Nifty ended near 24,850 after a volatile session. Investor wealth eroded by nearly Rs 6.6 lakh crore as risk aversion intensified.

The weakness in GIFT Nifty tracks a soft session on Wall Street. US stocks opened lower on Monday as the conflict in the Middle East widened and oil prices jumped. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7% to 48,661.35 in early trade, while the S&P 500 declined 0.5% to 6,845.44 and the Nasdaq slipped 0.4% to 22,575.52.

The Israeli military said it had launched a fresh broad strike on Tehran, while Gulf monarchies signalled possible retaliation, and tankers were attacked near Oman.

Higher crude prices are a key concern for India, which relies heavily on oil imports. Analysts say a sustained spike could fuel inflation, pressure the rupee and complicate the interest rate outlook.

Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said Monday’s selloff reflected a pronounced risk-off move. Markets reacted to US and Israeli strikes on Iran and regional retaliation by shifting towards safer assets, he noted.

Also read: After a brutal Monday crash, Trump says Iran war may last four weeks. How will the stock market react on Wednesday?Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, said rising crude prices and a weakening rupee signal concerns about potential supply disruptions. He warned that higher oil prices could lift inflation, impact government finances and strain margins for sectors dependent on energy and chemicals. He added that the India VIX has moved higher, pointing to increased uncertainty, while foreign institutional investor selling has intensified.

From a technical standpoint, the market remains under pressure but appears oversold.

Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, said benchmark indices are trading below key short-term and medium-term averages, with intraday charts showing a weak formation. However, he said a technical bounce cannot be ruled out, given the extent of recent losses.

Analysts see 24,750 on the Nifty and 80,000 on the Sensex as important support levels. As long as these levels hold, a pullback toward 25,000–25,075 on the Nifty is possible. A decisive break below 24,750, however, could open the door to 24,650-24,500.

Gaurav Udani, Founder of Thincredblu Securities, sees immediate resistance near 25,100 and support in the 24,550–24,600 band. He cautioned that a sustained breach of support could extend the downside, while reclaiming resistance is necessary for short-term stabilisation. Given the heightened geopolitical uncertainty, he advised traders to avoid aggressive leveraged positions.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

Shares of Tejas Networks surged as much as 15% to hit the day’s high of Rs 503 on the BSE on Monday, marking their fourth consecutive session of gains. With today’s rally, the stock has delivered an impressive 60% surge over the same period.

Volumes were strong in today’s session as 7 crore shares changed hands, significantly higher than the 1 week and 1 month average of 4 crore and 1 crore shares, respectively.

Last week, the company announced that it has signed an agreement with NEC Corporation to manufacture and supply 5G massive MIMO radios. With today’s rise, the stock has snapped a 4-day losing streak.

MIMO (Multiple-Input Multiple-Output) is a wireless technology that boosts data speed and signal reliability by using multiple antennas at both the transmitter and receiver, rather than just one.

Tejas Networks is a leading manufacturer and supplier of a versatile mobility product suite comprising 4G and 5G radio access network (RAN) offerings, including high-capacity 32TR and 64TR massive MIMO radios that comply to both 3GPP and O-RAN standards.

Sanjay Malik, Chief Strategy and Business Officer of Tejas Networks said, “We are delighted to win this deal in partnership with NEC as we expand our business internationally. We are looking forward to building on this momentum and replicate this success in other 4G/5G mobile networks across emerging and established markets.”

Tejas Networks Q3 snapshot

The domestic telecom equipment maker reported a consolidated loss of Rs 196.55 crore for the October–December quarter, marking its second consecutive quarterly loss. The weak performance was largely driven by a sharp decline in sales, including the deferment of purchase orders from state-owned Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL). In the same quarter last year, the company had posted a profit of Rs 165.67 crore.

Consolidated revenue from operations fell sharply by about 88% year-on-year to Rs 307 crore in the December 2025 quarter, compared with around Rs 2,642 crore reported in the December 2024 quarter.

During the reported quarter, around 85% of the company’s revenue mix, excluding operating revenue, came from the domestic market, while the remaining 15% was contributed by international operations.

The company said it maintained inventory worth Rs 2,363 crore as of the December 2025 quarter, which it expects to convert into finished goods and ship over the coming months. Cash balances stood at Rs 537 crore during the quarter.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)

Volatility in IBM shares highlights how quickly market narratives can shift when disruptive forces like artificial intelligence collide with established business models. Investors have been actively repricing the stock amid concerns that AI-driven tools could accelerate the modernisation of legacy systems, potentially reshaping long-term revenue visibility. Coverage across financial media, including Investing.com, MarketWatch and Reuters, has underscored a growing debate over whether AI poses a headwind or serves as a catalyst for IBM’s core businesses.

Market Reaction: Sharp Repricing Followed by Bargain Hunting

IBM witnessed a steep selloff of roughly 13% in a single session — one of its largest declines in decades — as traders rushed to adjust positions amid fears of AI disruption. The move wiped out significant market capitalization and reflected a classic risk-off reaction, with investors questioning earnings durability and future growth assumptions.

The following session saw a rebound as value-oriented buyers and long-only funds stepped in, suggesting that some participants viewed the decline as an overreaction rather than a structural shift.

Narrative vs Fundamentals: The Mainframe Debate

At the heart of the volatility is the market’s ongoing debate about whether AI could weaken IBM’s competitive moat. Automation tools that reduce the cost and time required to modernize legacy applications have raised concerns about consulting revenue streams and long-term demand visibility.

However, many analysts cited by financial media argue that the installed base — particularly in highly regulated industries like banking and government — creates sticky revenue, limiting the risk of rapid displacement. From a market perspective, this has turned into a tug-of-war between structural bears and long-term bulls.

Analyst Commentary Shapes Sentiment

Broker commentary following the decline emphasized that key profit pools — including transaction processing and infrastructure — remain resilient. Several analysts suggested that valuation multiples after the drop reflect elevated uncertainty rather than deterioration in underlying cash flows.

Such commentary often acts as a stabilizing force in markets, helping anchor expectations during periods of narrative-driven volatility.

AI as a Strategic Lever, Not a Threat

IBM’s positioning of AI as a tool to enhance — rather than cannibalise — its offerings has become central to the investment thesis. By integrating AI into development platforms and hybrid cloud solutions, the company aims to deepen enterprise relationships and extend lifecycle revenues, a factor closely watched by institutional investors.

Valuation Reset Sparks Opportunity Debate

The pullback has triggered discussions among market participants about whether the stock now offers a tactical entry point. Some investors see the correction as a sentiment-driven reset, while others remain cautious, waiting for clearer evidence that AI initiatives translate into measurable revenue acceleration.

Long-Term Investment Case Remains Intact — For Now

Supporters of the stock point to recurring enterprise contracts, strong client retention, and growth in software and cloud segments as pillars that could support earnings through cycles. In equity markets, such predictable cash flows often command premium valuations, especially during periods of macro uncertainty.

Bottom Line for Investors

IBM’s recent price action highlights a familiar market dynamic: stocks tied to transformative technologies often experience sharp swings as investors recalibrate expectations. The key question for the market is whether AI ultimately strengthens IBM’s competitive positioning or compresses its legacy advantage.

If execution matches strategic messaging, the current volatility could be remembered as a phase of repricing rather than the start of a structural decline — a distinction that long-term investors will watch closely.