After Nepal’s historic youth-led uprising last September killed 77 people and forced then-Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli to resign, a 35-year-old rapper-turned-politician posted a typically terse message to millions of followers on social media.

“Dear Gen Z, the resignation of your killer has come,” Balendra Shah – popularly known only as Balen – wrote. “Now your generation will have to lead the country. Be prepared.”

Five months on, the musician who cut his political teeth in 2022 when he became the mayor of the capital Kathmandu, is poised to become Nepal’s next prime minister following the country’s first election since the September uprising.

Shah’s Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) was leading in around 100 seats, far ahead of its main rivals, early counting trends from the election commission showed on Friday.

Final results, covering 165 seats decided by direct vote and 110 through proportional representation, are expected within days.

The Nepali Congress, currently in second place, has already conceded defeat, and analysts said the RSP’s dominant showing means it will likely form the next government.

“Balen Shah is so popular that now buses coming to Kathmandu have stickers on them saying, ‘Headed to Balen’s city’”, said Bipin Adhikari, a constitutional law ⁠expert who teaches at Kathmandu University.

If Shah is able to take power, it would cap a dramatic rise for a man who entered the public spotlight with rap music critical of the establishment and parleyed his popularity to ascend to high political office.

It would also potentially reshape the politics of Nepal, a small Himalayan nation wedged between China and India, that has long been dominated by a handful of established parties.

‘NOT A CAKEWALK’

Some of Shah’s nationwide appeal is driven by the work he has done as the mayor of Kathmandu, where he focused on improving the urban infrastructure, such as waste management, and ensuring the delivery of services like healthcare.

He has also faced criticism, including from Human Rights Watch, for allegedly using police to seize the properties of street vendors and landless people.

Shah – who resigned as mayor in January to contest the general election – did not respond to requests for an interview and questions from Reuters sent via email.

Unlike much of Nepal’s political elite comprising veterans from older generations, Shah has made it a habit to largely shun the mainstream press.

Instead, it is his prolific social media presence, with over 3.5 million followers on platforms like Facebook, that enables him to connect directly with young Nepalis.

“What makes Balen special is that he stays connected with ⁠the youth through his short messages on social media, but it would not be a cakewalk for him after becoming prime minister,” said independent political analyst Puranjan Acharya.

‘LET ME SPEAK’

Born to a father who practiced traditional Ayurvedic medicine and a homemaker mother, Shah showed an early inclination towards poetry that evolved into a love of rap music, influenced by American artists including Tupac Shakur and Curtis “50 Cent” Jackson, according to an aide.

After securing an undergraduate degree in civil engineering in Nepal, Shah went on to study for a master’s degree in structural engineering in southern India – by which time he had already emerged as a rap star in his home country.

His songs, often taking on Nepal’s ⁠ruling class, struck a chord with many in a country where about 20% of the 30 million population live in grinding poverty.

Released in 2019, one of Shah’s best-known songs, “Balidan” – or sacrifice in the Nepali language – has over 12 million views on YouTube.

Its lyrics read:

“Let me speak, sir, it is not a crime,

Let me open the mind, I am not a curse to the palace,

My mind is not bad, it is not afraid to speak the truth.”

‘WOOD ATTACKED BY TERMITES’

Last ⁠December, Shah joined the RSP, led by former TV host-turned-politician Rabi Lamichhane, as its prime ministerial candidate.

In its manifesto, Shah’s RSP has vowed to create 1.2 million jobs and reduce forced migration, in an effort to tap into frustration over unemployment and low wages that have pushed millions of Nepalis to search for work overseas.

The party has also pledged to raise Nepal’s per capita income from $1,447 to $3,000, more than double the ⁠nation’s economy to $100 billion GDP and provide safety nets such as healthcare insurance for the entire population – all within five years.

At the national level, analysts foresee that if he is elected, much of Shah’s success will depend on the talent he surrounds himself with to overhaul a moribund administrative system, riven by corruption.

“It needs a team, experts and support,” Acharya said, “Under the existing state apparatus, he can’t perform and he will be finished like wood attacked by termites.” 

Source: Reuters 

–Agencies 

Markets extended their winning streak for a third straight week, reaching new record highs on the back of improving global risk sentiment and supportive domestic factors. While early sessions were marked by bouts of profit-taking, a strong rebound midweek helped revive bullish momentum, followed by a phase of healthy consolidation. By the week’s close, the Nifty rose 0.52% to end at 26,202.95, while the Sensex added 0.56%, settling at 85,706.67.

The gains were largely underpinned by rising expectations of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in December, which lifted global sentiment. Hopes of progress in Russia–Ukraine negotiations also buoyed risk assets on expectations of easing crude prices. On the domestic front, positive growth projections and sector-specific resilience continued to bolster investor confidence, although ongoing concerns around weak export performance limited the overall upside.

With this, analyst Sudeep Shah, Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, interacted with ET Markets regarding the outlook for the Nifty and Bank Nifty, as well as an index strategy for the upcoming week. The following are the edited excerpts from his chat:

With markets cherishing Nifty’s all-time high, what are your thoughts on the same?

Markets have turned a historic page — Nifty has broken past its 14-month ceiling to hit a fresh all-time high. Not just that, it has delivered its highest-ever weekly and monthly closing, giving the bulls a reason to celebrate louder. The strength wasn’t confined to the benchmark alone — Nifty Bank, Nifty Private Bank, Nifty Financial Services, Nifty Auto, and Nifty Infra all joined the record-high club, signalling that leadership sectors are still marching with confidence and purpose.

However, beneath the headline celebration, the broader market still appears hesitant. The Nifty Midcap 100 managed to hit a new all-time high, indicating continued institutional interest in quality mid-sized names. On the other hand, the Nifty Smallcap 100 declined for the second consecutive week and remains below its 20, 50, and 100-day EMAs, which highlights selective participation and underlying caution in the smallest segment of the market.

The million-dollar question now is, will the broader market join the party? Considering the current chart structure of broader indices, meaningful participation from small caps looks uncertain in the immediate term. The rally is therefore expected to remain selective, where sector rotation and stock-specific action may continue to support higher levels. Going ahead, we believe Nifty is likely to extend its upward trajectory and test 26,500, followed by 26,800 in the short term. On the downside, the 20-day EMA zone of 25,950–25,900 is likely to provide a cushion in case of any immediate decline.

What are the near-term views on Bank Nifty with the RBI MPC outcome just around the corner?

Bank Nifty continues to dominate the market narrative with its exceptional outperformance. The index not only touched a fresh all-time high last week but also closed in the green for the fourth consecutive week, reinforcing the strength of the ongoing bullish trend in the banking space.

Technically, the momentum remains robust. The RSI across all major timeframes is firmly positioned in the super-bullish zone and continues to rise, signalling strong buying interest. On the weekly chart, Bank Nifty has managed to close above the upper Bollinger Band—a rare and powerful indication of sustained upside momentum. Other key indicators mirror this bullish setup, leaving little doubt about the prevailing strength.

Going ahead, the index appears poised to extend its northward journey, with immediate targets at 60,300, followed by 61,000 in the short term. On the downside, the 58,800–58,700 zone, which aligns with the 20-day EMA, will serve as a critical support area in case of any pullback. Considering the technical chart structure firmly in favour of the bulls, Bank Nifty is likely to remain the driving force behind the market’s upward trajectory.

Any banking sector stocks that look attractive?

Yes, a few banking stocks look attractive at current levels. The Bank Nifty/Nifty ratio chart has given a horizontal trendline breakout, indicating potential outperformance of Bank Nifty relative to Nifty. A rising ratio line and the 20-EMA acting as dynamic support add to the positive outlook. In the PSU banking space, most stocks have rallied sharply and trade near their highs, making the risk–reward less favourable. However, one name from the PSU banking space that can continue its northward journey is Canara Bank. The stock continues to outperform its own index and shows sustained relative strength. Among private banks, Federal Bank, AU Bank, Kotak Bank and HDFC Bank look promising. These stocks recently broke above their swing highs and have been trading sideways for the last two days and any follow-through move above the recent highs could fuel further upside.

Despite all the optimism, FIIs are still sellers of Indian equities. What do you think is causing that now? Why is the confidence not returning?

Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have remained net sellers in Indian equity markets through a prolonged cycle. Historically, since 2015, FPIs have turned net buyers in the secondary market during only two calendar years — 2019 and 2020.

Despite major indices delivering largely flat year-on-year returns, Indian equity valuations continue to remain elevated. The ongoing up-move in benchmark indices has lacked broad-based participation, with gains being disproportionately driven by a handful of large index heavyweights, lifting the headline index toward lifetime highs while the underlying market remains relatively subdued.

For global investors, India represents one of several competing opportunities within the broader international asset allocation spectrum. Meanwhile, India has clearly lagged in the semiconductor and advanced chip manufacturing race, with South Korea and Taiwan emerging as leaders in Asia’s tech-led momentum surge.

FPIs, traditionally momentum-driven allocators, are currently channelling capital toward global markets that are benefitting from the AI and semiconductor theme, as liquidity increasingly gravitates toward the AI trade. With capital flows favouring momentum plays, near-term allocations reflect a clear tilt toward AI-linked narratives, as emerging markets align with the ongoing technology cycle.

Do you think there are any other factors yet to be priced in that may cause a significant movement in our markets? Any macro or micro factors?

Over the next few months, several macro and micro factors could influence Indian markets. Domestically, growth momentum, favourable inflation trends and the possibility of a more accommodative RBI stance may support equities. Globally, rising Japanese bond yields and potential BoJ policy shifts could tighten liquidity, while the Fed’s rate-cut trajectory will directly impact global risk appetite and FII flows. Additionally, progress on the India–US trade deal, a major overhang, may boost sentiment and benefit export-oriented sectors. Together, these factors could shape market direction in the near term.

So, which sectors would you think one can bet on now?

Technical indicators suggest that several key sectors are likely to maintain their leadership in the near term. Nifty Private Bank, PSU Banks, Financial Services, Capital Market, Automobile, Infrastructure, IT, and Pharma are showing strong bullish setups across multiple timeframes, supported by rising momentum indicators and favourable chart patterns. These sectors have been driving the recent rally and are expected to continue their outperformance in the short term.

On the flip side, some pockets of the market may struggle to keep pace. Nifty Media, Realty, PSE, FMCG, and India Defence are exhibiting signs of weakness and are likely to remain under pressure, extending their underperformance in the coming sessions.

Any stocks within those?

Technically, several stocks are showing strong setups and look promising in the near term. Among them, Laurus Labs, LTIMindtree, Mahindra & Mahindra, Paytm (One 97 Communications), 360 ONE WAM, Adani Ports & SEZ, Cummins India, Escorts Kubota, Cholamandalam Investment & Finance (CHOLAFIN), Coforge, and Housing & Urban Development Corporation (HUDCO) stand out with favourable chart structures and momentum indicators pointing towards potential upside.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Indian equities continued their winning streak, closing in the green for the second consecutive week, as investors found comfort in easing FPI selling pressure and renewed momentum in domestic markets.

Despite lingering global uncertainties, the sentiment improved notably during the week, setting a constructive tone for the near term.

The most encouraging sign came from the foreign institutional investors (FIIs), who had been net sellers for several months but turned net buyers in the cash market. The total FII net buying figure stood at Rs 3,289 crore over the last four trading sessions, suggesting that global investors may be regaining confidence in Indian equities.

This moderation in outflows has provided much-needed stability to the broader market, particularly after a volatile start to October.

In our previous weekly outlook, we had highlighted October 6, 7, and 9 as key dates likely to bring elevated volatility—and that prediction played out well. This kind of price action reinforces the importance of time-based analysis in identifying potential turning points in market momentum.

Key Time Clusters for the Week (Oct 13 – 17, 2025)

As we move into the coming week, traders should watch for the following intraday time clusters, which often coincide with short-term market reversals or momentum shifts:

Monday, Oct 13: 9:20 am – 11:10 am · 12:35 pm · 2:40 pm

Tuesday, Oct 14: 10:35 am – 1:05 pm · 3:00 pm

Wednesday, Oct 15: 10:30 am – 12:10 pm · 1:30 pm · 1:55 pm

Thursday, Oct 16: 9:45 am – 10:35 am · 12:30 pm · 2:05 pm

Friday, Oct 17: 11:10 am · 1:20 pm

These time clusters are derived from cyclical studies and have historically indicated potential zones of intraday reversals or directional accelerations.

Nifty (Spot) Support & Resistance Levels

Resistance: 25,322 · 25,434 · 25,566 · 25,710
Support: 25,145 · 25,080 · 25,035 · 25,001 · 24,856 · 24,806 · 24,688

Trading Outlook for the Week

The upcoming week could witness heightened momentum, particularly around Friday, October 17, as key time cycles converge.

Traders are advised to remain vigilant and flexible, adjusting positions dynamically in response to the unfolding price action. As intraday volatility may expand toward the weekend, managing risk through stop losses and position sizing will be crucial.

Overall, the technical structure of the market remains positive, with dips likely to attract buying interest.

Sustained FII inflows and strong domestic participation could help Nifty move toward higher resistance levels in the coming sessions.

(Analyst Disclaimer: Harshubh Mahesh Shah is Director at Wealthview Analytics Pvt Ltd. SEBI Registration – INH000009676)

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)

In a rare and high-stakes move, the Centre has sent a powerful message to one of India’s most influential business houses — Tata Trusts must stay stable, or the consequences could be serious.In this video, we break down what really happened behind closed doors when Home Minister Amit Shah and Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman met N Chandrasekaran, Noel Tata, and other senior Tata leaders. What’s at stake for Tata Trusts Why the government intervened now How internal rifts could impact Tata Sons and the Indian economyWatch till the end to understand why, for Tata, unity isn’t optional — it’s essential.

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Indian equities extended their winning streak, with the Nifty50 rising 0.8% in the week ended September 19, 2025, marking the third consecutive week of gains. The market’s resilience came despite persistent foreign investor selling, supported by positive global cues and optimism around India-US trade talks.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remained net sellers, withdrawing ₹10,962 crore in September so far. However, supportive domestic flows and sectoral resilience kept sentiment buoyant.

Adding to the momentum, the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points-the first reduction this year—bringing its policy rate to the 4%–4.25% range. The move reinforced hopes of easier global liquidity and improved risk appetite for emerging markets like India.

Performance Review (Sept 15–19, 2025)

Last week, we highlighted September 18–19 as crucial dates for traders, and market action validated that view. On September 18, the Nifty opened with a sharp gap-up, hitting the weekly high. Profit-booking followed post-September 18, dragging the index lower as traders locked in gains.

Key Time Clusters (Sept 22–26, 2025)

For the upcoming week, the following time clusters could act as inflection points, bringing intraday volatility and possible trend shifts:Monday, Sept 22: 9:30 am – 1:00 pm
Tuesday, Sept 23: 11:15 am – 1:15 pm

Wednesday, Sept 24: 10:15 am – 11:15 am, 12:45 pm – 2:15 pm
Thursday, Sept 25: 10:15 am – 2:35 pm
Friday, Sept 26: 9:30 am – 10:35 am, 11:15 am

Traders should keep these windows in mind for short-term opportunities.

Nifty Spot Support & Resistance Levels

Resistance: 25,440 / 25,566 / 25,739 / 26,010
Support: 25,322 / 25,145 / 25,080 / 25,030 / 24,978 / 24,856

These levels can guide positional trades and risk management strategies.

Trading Outlook

September 21 and September 24 emerge as key reversal dates where short-term trend changes could play out. Traders should remain nimble, using the above support-resistance bands for tactical positioning.

Given the Fed rate cut and ongoing FII outflows, volatility may remain elevated, offering both risks and opportunities for active participants.

The coming week sits at the intersection of technical inflection points and global policy shifts. Investors and traders would do well to stay alert, manage positions actively, and align with market signals.

(The author, Harshubh Mahesh Shah, is Director at Wealthview Analytics Pvt Ltd. SEBI Registration – INH000009676)

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)

Foreign investors may be retreating from Indian equities, but Kotak Mahindra AMC’s Nilesh Shah says the priority for India Inc. should remain growth and governance. In a post on microblogging site X (formerly Twitter) on Friday, Shah posed a series of rhetorical questions on the market’s shifting dynamics.

“Since FPIs are underweight, will they campaign to unnerve DIIs? (Everything is fair in love, war and the money-making business),” he wrote. “Will the DIIs campaign to unnerve FPIs? … Will retail investors withstand higher volatility and negative returns in the short term and moderate returns in the long term?”

Shah said there are “many questions but very few answers.” What matters most, he argued, is that Indian companies continue to deliver double-digit earnings growth and return on equity, underpinned by the “2 Gs of Growth and Governance.” He noted that the “third G of Green is on the back foot.”

FPI share at 13-year low

Shah’s comments come as foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) cut their holdings in Indian stocks to a 13-year low in August. Data from the National Securities Depository Ltd show their share in NSE-listed companies dropped to 15.85%, with portfolio value falling to Rs 70.33 lakh crore from Rs 71.97 lakh crore in July, a 2.3% decline.

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Overseas investors pulled out Rs 34,993 crore from equities in August, the sharpest monthly outflow this year, pushing year-to-date withdrawals past Rs 1.3 lakh crore. Since January, FPIs have pared nearly Rs 1.7 lakh crore from Indian markets.

India slips in EM rankings

Nomura said 71% of emerging-market funds were underweight India at the end of July, up from 60% earlier, making the country the largest underweight market in EM portfolios.

BofA Securities said India has fallen to “the bottom of emerging market preferences” following U.S. tariff shocks, even as North Asian markets benefit from the AI cycle.

Domestic resilience

Despite foreign selling, India’s benchmark indices have advanced nearly 4% in 2025, buoyed by domestic inflows. Jefferies said FPI allocations are at “decadal lows” but pointed to strong local flows as “big downside protection and a sentiments booster.”

India’s economy has also surprised on the upside, with GDP growth accelerating to 7.8% in the June quarter, compared with consensus expectations of 6.7%. Growth was led by manufacturing and financial services, according to BofA Securities.

GST overhaul in focus

Shah welcomed the government’s move toward GST slab rationalisation and rate reduction, calling it “a step in the right direction.”

Brokerages, including Emkay Global, have described GST reform as a “growth-accretive, big-ticket” measure that could help offset weak earnings and draw foreign investors back.

“As Mr. Buffett said, stocks are slaves of earnings,” Shah said, adding that what looks expensive on a one-year basis could appear cheap over five years.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)

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Indian equity markets closed lower for the third straight week, with the Nifty50 slipping 0.7% to end below the 25,000 mark for the week ending July 18, 2025.

A sharp uptick in foreign institutional investor (FPI) selling has amplified the weakness. According to NSDL data, FPIs have offloaded Indian equities worth Rs 10,775 crore so far in July.

Yet, beneath the surface of price action, a subtler force is at work: time.

July 15–19: Time Levels Guide Market Moves
In our previous analysis, we highlighted July 15 as a pivotal date—and the market respected this projection. On Friday, July 19, once the low of July 15 was breached, the Nifty witnessed aggressive selling.

Even the high made on July 15 proved significant: a failed breakout attempt near that level on July 16 triggered fresh declines.

Critical support zones worked well last week:
24,978 acted as a crucial support level before Friday’s pause.The 25,085 mark (July 15’s low) also played a vital role, as its breach led to a steep sell-off.Once again, the market demonstrated that both price levels and time zones matter in short-term trading decisions.

Precision in Time-Based Analysis: Intraday Accuracy Unmatched
Throughout the week, time analysis proved its merit with remarkable precision. Specific intraday time slots consistently aligned with swing highs, lows, and key reversals:

July 14:

• 10:20 AM – Swing high, followed by a downtrend
• 11:30 AM – Day’s low formed near this time

July 15:

• 9:45 AM – Day’s low formed
• 2:45 PM – Swing low marked with precision

July 16–18:

• Multiple intraday pivots around key time slots like 10:45 AM, 12:30 PM, and 2:45 PM

Such consistency confirms that Time Analysis, when combined with Price Action, can provide traders with clear, actionable insights.

Outlook for July 21–25: Big Moves Expected
Key Support Zones:
24,978 / 24,850 / 24,676 / 24,538 / 24,450

Key Resistance Levels:
25,080 / 25,147 / 25,320 / 25,434 / 25,566 / 25,600

Intraday Time Slots to Watch:

ETMarkets.com

Key Dates to Track
July 22–23: Expect swift intraday moves — ideal for short-term traders and scalpers.

July 24–25: Watch for a potential top or bottom formation. Positional traders should stay alert.

Conclusion
While many traders focus solely on chart patterns, indicators, or news flow, the underlying rhythm of Time remains a powerful yet underappreciated tool.

The coming week holds key signals hidden in specific time windows. Stay prepared — sharp moves could catch the unprepared off-guard.

(The author is Director, Wealthview Analytics Pvt Ltd. SEBI Registration – INH000009676)

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)