Ethereum is consolidating around $2,300, holding a level that represents meaningful recovery from the February lows but still sitting well below the highs that defined the previous cycle. The price action is tentative — not breaking down, not breaking out — and the market is in the kind of cautious, assessing mode that tends to precede a decisive move in either direction. An Arab Chain report has just added a layer of order flow context that begins to explain what is happening beneath that surface stillness.

The Cumulative Volume Delta on Binance has registered a positive reading of approximately +48,400 — meaning buy orders have been outpacing sell orders in aggregate volume. The reading is not aggressive. It does not describe a market flooded with fresh demand or a surge of institutional conviction. What it describes is something more nuanced and arguably more significant: a gradual, quiet return of buying pressure in a market that recently had none.

The correlation coefficient between price and order flow sits at 0.66 — a moderately strong relationship that confirms price is beginning to respond to the underlying demand, but also reflects that other forces remain in play. Derivatives activity, external liquidity conditions, and the broader macro environment are all still influencing Ethereum’s price alongside the improving spot order flow.

The market is rebalancing. The demand is returning. Neither process is complete.

Buyers Are Back. They Are Just Not in a Hurry

The Arab Chain report places the CVD reading in the context that prevents it from being misread in either direction. A positive value of +48,400 confirms that buy orders are outpacing sell orders — that is the directional signal. But the magnitude is deliberately modest, and the report is precise about what that modesty means. This is not a surge of fresh institutional capital flooding into Ethereum. It is a gradual improvement in demand, consistent with a market that is healing rather than accelerating.

That distinction matters for how the current price recovery should be evaluated. Slow, steady demand improvement tends to build more durable price structures than sharp, aggressive inflows — the latter often reverse quickly when the momentum fades, while the former tends to accumulate into something more sustained. The pace of the CVD improvement mirrors the pace of the price recovery, which is exactly what a genuine rebalancing phase looks like rather than a dead-cat bounce.

The 0.66 correlation coefficient adds the honest caveat that spot order flow alone is not driving Ethereum right now. Derivatives positioning, external liquidity conditions, and macro factors are all contributing to price movement — a configuration the report identifies as typical of transitional phases where the market has not yet committed to a clear direction.

The forward picture the report presents is binary and appropriately honest. If the CVD continues improving and the correlation strengthens toward 1.0, the gradual demand return develops into a confirmed trend. If momentum stalls and the positive CVD reading plateaus, Ethereum remains range-bound until a catalyst arrives to break the equilibrium.

The data currently supports the first scenario as the more likely path — but not with the kind of conviction that removes the second scenario from consideration.

Ethereum is holding its ground as the broader market consolidates, with the price sitting just above $2,332 after modest gains of 1.66% over the past 24 hours and 3.35% over the past week. The moves are not dramatic, but the structure building beneath them may be more significant than the price action suggests. A GugaOnChain analysis is identifying a shift in institutional behavior that changes how the current consolidation should be read.

The analysis tracks three distinct address categories on Binance — accumulating addresses, stable whale addresses, and user deposit addresses — and the current alignment between them is unusually constructive. Accumulating addresses now number 2,434, having crossed above stable whale addresses at 2,410.

That crossover matters because it signals a behavioral migration: institutional participants who were previously holding stablecoins in a waiting posture are now actively executing — buying ETH and moving it into cold custody rather than keeping capital on the sidelines.

The deposit side of the equation completes the picture. Binance user deposit addresses — the metric that reflects how many addresses are sending ETH to the exchange with the intention to sell — stand at just 2,314, the lowest of the three figures. For every address positioning to sell, there are many more institutions either actively accumulating or positioned with capital ready to absorb any supply that does arrive.

Two Buyers for Every Seller — and the Clock Is Already Running

The ratio at the center of the GugaOnChain analysis is the number that reframes everything else. Combined buying pressure — active accumulation plus stablecoin-ready institutional capital — currently surpasses potential selling pressure at a ratio of 2.1 to 1. In practical terms, for every address sending ETH to Binance to sell, two institutional addresses are either actively buying or positioned to buy the moment supply appears.

The analysis describes the current $2,332 level as an armored glass floor — a price zone where the structural weight of institutional demand has become dense enough to absorb selling without giving ground.

The forward assessment the report makes is specific and confident. With the convergence index above 2.0, GugaOnChain assigns a 92% probability to a breakout scenario — citing historical precedent that when deposit addresses fall below accumulation addresses at this ratio, price expansion has consistently followed within 72 to 120 hours. The institutional market, as the report frames it, is actively draining Binance’s available ETH liquidity. When that process reaches its natural conclusion, the supply available to resist upward price movement simply runs out.

The risk scenario that would invalidate the setup is equally specific. A spike in Binance user deposit addresses above 2,600 — crossing above the stable whale line — would signal mass profit-taking and trigger a reversal alert. That threshold has not been approached.

What the data describes, taken in full, is a supply shock already in motion. The accumulation is real, the stablecoin positioning is real, and the selling pressure is outnumbered. The 72 to 120-hour window the analysis references has already started.

The market is consolidating. But underneath it, the balance of intent is shifting.

Domestic markets ended marginally lower after a choppy session as markets turned stock-specific amid the ongoing earnings season. Analysts expect markets to trade sideways, with investors looking at ongoing earnings, developments on the India-US trade deal front, and cues on the upcoming Budget.

STATE OF THE MARKETS
GIFT Nifty (Earlier SGX Nifty) signals a muted start
GIFT Nifty on the NSE IX traded lower by 4 points, or 0.02 per cent, at 25,781, signaling that Dalal Street was headed for a muted start on Friday.

• Tech View: The index is expected to regain momentum once it decisively reclaims the 59800 level. Until then, the index is likely to trade in a broad range of 59000–59800, where 59200–59150 acts as a crucial support zone near the 50-day SMA, while 59800 will continue to act as the immediate range resistance.
• India VIX: India VIX, which is a measure of the fear in the markets, rose 1.09% to settle at 11.32 levels.

US stocks gain
U.S. stocks rose on Thursday after two days ⁠of declines as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs shares shot up following upbeat quarterly results, while Taiwan-based chipmaker TSMC’s blockbuster results boosted shares of U.S. chipmakers.

• Dow up 0.6%,
• S&P 500 rises ‍0.3%,
• Nasdaq gains 0.3%

Asian shares mixed
Asian stocks are set for their longest weekly winning streak since May, with a regional gauge of technology shares climbing to a record as investors step up bets on artificial intelligence. Regional shares were mixed Friday with losses in Japan, and gains in AI posterchild South Korea.

• S&P 500 futures rose 0.1% as of 9:33 a.m. Tokyo time
• Hang Seng futures rose 0.8%
• Nikkei 225 futures (OSE) fell 0.4%
• Japan’s Topix fell 0.3%
• Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.2%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures fell 0.4%

Dollar gains
The dollar was poised for a third weekly gain on Friday after positive ‍U.S. economic data lowered expectations for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve anytime soon.

Stocks in F&O ban today
SAIL
Sammaan Capital

Securities in the ban period under the F&O segment include companies in which the security has crossed 95% of the market-wide position limit.

FII/DII action
Foreign portfolio investors net sold shares worth Rs 4,781 crore on Wednesday. DIIs, meanwhile, were net buyers at Rs 5,281 crore.

Rupee
The rupee pared initial gains and settled for the day 11 paise lower at 90.34 against the US dollar on Wednesday, as the likely central bank intervention was negated by a strong dollar, foreign outflows from capital markets, and elevated crude oil prices.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

Benchmark indices were volatile on expiry day as Nifty ended 58 points lower, while the Sensex was down by 250 points. Analysts say the intraday market texture is non-directional and hence, levels-based trading would be the ideal strategy for day traders.

STATE OF THE MARKETS
GIFT Nifty (Earlier SGX Nifty) signals a muted start
GIFT Nifty on the NSE IX traded lower by 25.50 points, or 0.10 per cent, at 25,752, signaling that Dalal Street was headed for a muted start on Wednesday.

• Tech View: From a technical standpoint, the index continues to attract buying interest near lower levels, as reflected by its ability to reclaim and hold the 25,700 demand zone. The formation of consecutive candlesticks with long lower shadows near support indicates dip-buying activity, suggesting that bullish participants have not entirely exited the market.
• India VIX: India VIX, which is a measure of the fear in the markets, fell 1.5% to settle at 11.20 levels.

Asian shares gain
Asian shares posted a modest gain at the open, while Japanese equities extended their record-breaking run fueled by a weaker yen.

• S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 9:27 a.m. Tokyo time
• Hang Seng futures rose 0.2%
• Japan’s Topix rose 0.5%
• Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was little changed
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.2%

US stocks end lower
U.S. ⁠stocks ended lower on Tuesday, led by a drop in financial shares as comments from JPMorgan executives added to worries about U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent proposal for a cap on credit-card rates.

• Dow down 0.8%,
• S&P 500 dips 0.2%,
• Nasdaq falls 0.1%

Dollar rebounds
The U.S. dollar recovered ground to near a one-month high in ⁠early Asian trade on Wednesday after U.S. CPI data that was broadly in line with estimates, firming up expectations that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold later this month despite unprecedented pressure from the White House to lower interest rates.

Stocks in F&O ban today

SAIL
Sammaan Capital

Securities in the ban period under the F&O segment include companies in which the security has crossed 95% of the market-wide position limit.

FII/DII action
Foreign portfolio investors net sold shares worth Rs 1,500 crore on Tuesday. DIIs, meanwhile, were net buyers at Rs 1,182 crore.

Rupee
The rupee declined 6 paise to close at 90.23 against the US dollar on Tuesday, as a rebound in crude oil and high metal prices, coupled with a cautious market environment, dented investor sentiments.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

Indian equity benchmarks recovered sharply from the Monday lows to end in green. Analysts expect markets to remain sideways, with stock-specific action as we enter the first leg of the earnings season.

STATE OF THE MARKETS
GIFT Nifty (Earlier SGX Nifty) signals a positive start
GIFT Nifty on the NSE IX traded higher by 58 points, or 0.22 per cent, at 25,917, signaling that Dalal Street was headed for a positive start on Tuesday.

• Tech View: This half session buying is not expected to change overall market sentiment. We would remain watchful, as the Nifty faces resistance in the 26000–26100 zone, where selling pressure may re-emerge. On the lower end, immediate and crucial support is placed at 25650.”
• India VIX: India VIX, which is a measure of the fear in the markets, rose 4% to settle at 11.37 levels.

US stocks end higher
The ⁠S&P 500 and Dow registered record closing highs on Monday, with shares of technology companies and retailer Walmart gaining and as investors mostly brushed aside concerns about the U.S. Justice Department’s criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chair ‌Jerome Powell.

• Dow ‍up 0.2%,
• S&P 500 rises 0.2%,
• Nasdaq gains 0.3%

Asian shares gain
Asian shares climbed to near a record, buoyed by optimism over earnings and regional economic growth as investors broadened their focus beyond US markets.

• S&P 500 futures fell 0.1% as of 9:21 a.m. Tokyo time
• Japan’s Topix rose 2.1%
• Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.8%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.3%

Dollar wobbles
The dollar held to its losses on Tuesday after the Trump administration opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve ⁠Chair Jerome Powell, a move that threatens the central bank’s independence and faith in U.S. assets.

Stocks in F&O ban today

SAIL
Sammaan Capital

Securities in the ban period under the F&O segment include companies in which the security has crossed 95% of the market-wide position limit.

FII/DII action
Foreign portfolio investors net sold shares worth Rs 3,638 crore on Monday. DIIs, meanwhile, were net buyers at Rs 5,839 crore.

Rupee
The rupee recovered from low levels and settled 1 paisa higher at 90.16 against the US dollar on Monday on weak American currency and sliding crude oil prices.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

Ethereum has retraced below the $3,200 level following the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, a move that initially sparked volatility across the crypto market. While many expected a stronger reaction from Ethereum, the asset instead slipped lower as traders reassessed the macro environment and the implications of a potential shift toward stagflation. Despite this pullback, on-chain data suggests that the underlying market structure may be quietly improving.

According to new insights from CryptoQuant, Ethereum’s Net Taker Volume (30-day moving average) is showing a clear upward trend in its lows. This metric tracks the balance between aggressive buyers and sellers in the derivatives market. Although ETH remains under selling pressure, the data reveals that the intensity of aggressive selling has been weakening steadily over the past several weeks. Each subsequent negative low is forming higher than the previous one, signaling that sellers are losing dominance.

While the broader sentiment remains cautious, subtle improvements in Net Taker Volume suggest that ETH’s current weakness may be masking the early stage of a larger structural shift.

Net Taker Volume Signals a Potential Structural Shift

According to CryptoQuant’s CoinCare, Ethereum may once again be approaching a pivotal turning point. The report highlights that a similar Net Taker Volume structure appeared earlier this year. After forming a clear bottom in January 2025, the metric began to trend upward—even while remaining in the negative zone—indicating that aggressive sellers were gradually losing strength.

By April, Net Taker Volume flipped decisively into positive territory. From that exact moment, Ethereum entered one of its strongest rallies of the cycle, surging more than 3x and printing a new all-time high.

Current conditions echo that same pattern. Since the peak of selling pressure in September, the market has continuously absorbed sell flows for nearly three months. Each negative low in Net Taker Volume has formed higher than the previous one, revealing improving market resilience despite the broader downtrend. If this trajectory holds, CoinCare estimates that a positive flip in Net Taker Volume may be only about a month away.

Historically, this transition from negative to positive has marked the beginning of Ethereum’s most explosive breakout phases. A confirmed move into positive territory would represent a high-probability trigger for the next expansion toward new all-time highs, signaling that momentum is quietly rebuilding beneath the surface.

After hitting a new all-time high back in August 2025, the Ethereum price has since slowed down, ranging around $4,200-$4,400 for the most part since the correction. Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency, which is the second-largest digital asset by market cap, is expected to rally again, since it only barely surpassed its previous all-time high by atone $100. For bullish analysts, the target for the cycle still remains that the Ethereum price will cross the $5,000 mark, but will not stop until it crosses above $6,000.

Ethereum Price Remains On The Side Of The Bulls

The recent drawdown, while having beaten the Ethereum price by around 10% since then, has not turned the price action bearish. If anything, crypto analyst HAMED_AZ believes that it is a healthy correction that is helping the altcoin to get ready for the next bullish phase.

One thing that stands out is that the drawdown has led to a corrective phase instead of a freefall. This suggests that the pullback is healthy for the digital asset and is rather bullish, especially as the Ethereum price has continued to maintain an important support zone above $4,100.

With the current corrective phase, the crypto analyst explains that the Ethereum price is now forming a bullish flag pattern. A bullish flag pattern is a continuation pattern that is notoriously known to form after a fast price increase, followed by a brief correction. The last part of the bullish flag pattern is the breakout, and doing so with volume puts the digital asset at a unique advantage to continue its uptrend.

Support Zone Needs To Hold

With the bullish flag pattern that formed on the chart, the only major thing that could derail the Ethereum price is if its support fails. Right now, that support remains firm at $4,100 and continues to hold. HAMED explains that as long as the Ethereum price continues to hold this support, then the price action is still very much bullish.

A breakout from the bullish flag pattern would lead to an impulse wave, and this impulse wave could lead to new all-time highs. An around 50% rally is expected to result from this impulse wave, putting the Ethereum price as high as $6,500 before it is over. “Keep a close eye on the flag breakout and watch for bullish momentum to resume once the consolidation completes,” the analyst stated.

In the event of a break below the support level, though, the Ethereum price could be in trouble. The next major support would reside at the $4,000 psychological level, where the bulls would mount their defense.

Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

According to a new analysis shared by crypto analyst Tony “The Bull” Severino, Bitcoin has just closed the quarterly chart with a perfected TD9 sell setup. This is actually interesting, because it adds a possibly long timeline before Bitcoin can reach any further significant price target. 

Most of Bitcoin’s daily candles in the past seven days have shown mild upward pressure supported by positive sentiment from various technical analyses. However, according to the TD9 setup, Bitcoin could take up to four years to reach $149,000.

TD9 Setup Hints At Slow Climb To $149,000

The TD9 is a component of the TD Sequential indicator, which is often used to identify trend exhaustion, potential reversals, and possible trend changes. Interestingly, what makes this particular signal notable at this point is that it is now projecting a TD Risk level of $149,490, which is essentially a price target for Bitcoin. But if past patterns on the TD9 indicator are anything to go by, getting there might take much longer than bulls expect.

Related Reading

In 2017, a similar perfected TD9 appeared during Bitcoin’s first rally to $20,000. At the time, the TD Risk was projected at $35,000. It wasn’t until late 2020, roughly four years later, that Bitcoin finally reached and broke above that level. A prior occurrence in 2014 offered the same story. 

Back then in 2014, the TD9 setup projected a TD Risk of $2,400, but it took approximately 3.5 years to cross that threshold. Now, despite the bullish sentiment today, this historical precedent suggests it could take similar years before the $149,490 target being currently projected by the TD Risk is finally tested or breached.

The 3-month candlestick price chart shown above provides a visual analysis of this projection. From the 2014 cycle low, it took 915 days across 10 quarterly candles for Bitcoin to reach its next high. After the 2017 signal, it took 1,096 days (or 12 quarterly candlesticks) for BTC to finally surpass the projected TD Risk level. 

Bitcoin Price Action On Gradual Climb

Bitcoin has spent the past seven days in a steady but modest uptrend, rising approximately 1.5% from a weekly low around $105,430 to the current range between $109,240 and $109,600. During this move, Bitcoin’s price action tested and retested resistance in the $108,200 to $108,800 zone several times in the past 24 hours. However, it ultimately pushed higher, showing a slow but stable bullish undertone.

Related Reading

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $109,330, up by 2% in the past 24 hours. It is currently about a 36% move away from reaching the $149,490 price target. However, if Tony Severino’s timeline on the TD9 Risk setup does play out, it wouldn’t be until sometime around July 2029 before Bitcoin reaches the $149,490 price target.

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Nifty ended with gains on Wednesday, tracking positive global cues as tensions in the Middle East eased following a tentative ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Overall, analysts expect the Indian market to remain firm on the back of reduced global geo-political concerns and positive domestic cues.

STATE OF THE MARKETS
GIFT Nifty (Earlier SGX Nifty) signals a positive start
GIFT Nifty on the NSE IX traded higher by 37.50 points, or 0.15 per cent, at 25,298.50, signaling that Dalal Street was headed for positive start on Thursday.

• Tech View: The overall sentiment remains positive, with a possibility of a rise towards 25,350. Immediate support is placed at 25,000; a break below this level could lead to a drift towards 24,850. On the other hand, if the index holds above 25,000, strength may persist, and the sentiment could favour long traders.
• India VIX: India VIX, which is a measure of the fear in the markets, fell 5% to settle at 12.97 levels.

Asian shares gain
Asian equities rose early Thursday, bolstered by Japanese stocks after a flat session on Wall Street as traders assessed simmering economic and geopolitical risks.

• S&P 500 futures were unchanged as of 9:21 a.m. Tokyo time
• Hang Seng futures fell 0.6%
• Japan’s Topix rose 0.2%
• Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.2%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures fell 0.8%

US stocks mixed
U.S. stocks took a breather on Wednesday, pausing a two-day rally as the tenuous Israel-Iran cease fire continued to hold and investors pored over a second day of congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

• Dow down 0.25%,
• S&P 500 unchanged,
• Nasdaq up 0.31%

Oil rises
Oil prices inched higher, extending gains from the previous day as a larger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude stocks signalled firm demand, while investors remained cautious about the Iran-Israel ceasefire and stability in the Middle East.

Gold rises
Gold prices nudged higher on Thursday, supported by a softer dollar, as investors looked ahead to upcoming U.S. economic data for hints on the Federal Reserve’s potential direction on interest rates.

Dollar slips
The dollar eased to a fresh 3-1/2-year low on the euro on Thursday as concerns about the future independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve undermined faith in the soundness of the country’s monetary policy.

Stocks in F&O ban today

Titagarh

BirlaSoft

MCX

Securities in the ban period under the F&O segment include companies in which the security has crossed 95% of the market-wide position limit.

FII/DII action
Foreign portfolio investors net sold shares worth Rs 2,427 crore on Wednesday. DIIs, meanwhile, were net bought at Rs 2,373 crore.

Rupee
The rupee gained 13 paise to 85.92 against the US dollar in early trade on Wednesday amid hopes of an end to hostilities between Israel and Iran, and a strong opening in domestic equity markets.

FII data
The position of FIIs in the futures market reduced from a net short of Rs 1.09 lakh crore on Tuesday to Rs 1.06 lakh crore on Wednesday.