Over 300,000 Bitcoin have quietly moved into long-term holder wallets in the past 30 days — a shift that analysts say reflects growing conviction among serious investors even as broader market mood remains fragile.

Sentiment Index Climbs To Highest Point Since January

That accumulation is happening against a backdrop of improving, if still cautious, market sentiment. The Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index surged 14 points in a single day to reach a score of 46 out of 100 — the highest reading since January 18 and the biggest one-day jump in more than three months.

Bitcoin supply is moving into stronger hands.

Over the last 30 days:
• Long Term Holder Supply: +303K BTC
• ETF Netflows: +16.8K BTC
• Strategy: +53.0K BTC

And meanwhile:
• Short Term Holder Supply: -290K BTC pic.twitter.com/LeoKkZ3MMq

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) April 22, 2026

The score remains in the “Fear” zone, where it has been stuck since mid-January, but the speed of the move caught attention across trading circles. Bitcoin itself held near $78k after briefly climbing to $79,500, a gain of roughly 5% over a 20-hour window.

The index score of 46 sits just below the neutral threshold of 50. Getting there matters, but the market still has ground to cover.

Futures Market Leads The Push

Not all of the momentum behind Bitcoin’s rise came from the same place. According to CryptoQuant’s analysis, the rally was driven entirely by demand in the perpetual futures market.

Spot demand — buying on actual exchanges rather than through derivatives — has been contracting, albeit slowly. CryptoQuant flagged that a price correction could follow if traders begin taking profits while spot interest remains weak.

Speculative rally: The recent Bitcoin price increase is completely driven by demand in the perpetual futures market. Meanwhile, spot demand is still contracting (although at a slower pace).

The same happened on January, when Bitcoin peaked at $98K.

There are risks of a… pic.twitter.com/HDt157QJwJ

— Julio Moreno (@jjcmoreno) April 22, 2026

Perp-driven moves without matching spot activity have historically been short-lived, and that pattern is worth watching here.

Strategy, the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, has been among the most aggressive buyers, snapping up 53,000 Bitcoin over the past month alone.

Reports from CryptoQuant indicate the broader supply shift points to coins moving from short-term to long-term holders — a sign, analysts say, that the asset is finding a more stable base of ownership.

Retail Traders Yet To Return In Force

One notable gap in the recovery is retail participation. Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan has said publicly that everyday traders have not returned to the market at the same volumes seen in previous cycles.

That matters because the Fear & Greed Index draws heavily from retail-driven data points — Google search volume and social media activity related to crypto. Without a pickup in those signals, the index faces a ceiling.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView

The price of Bitcoin has been on a tear in the past week, drawing positive momentum from the improving conditions of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. On Friday, April 17, the premier cryptocurrency surged to around $77,500, reaching a new 10-week high on the day. Despite the heating price action, on-chain data suggests that there has not been a commensurate increase in investor sentiment.

Bearish Investor Sentiment Could Mean Continued BTC Rally?

In a recent post on the social media platform X, Santiment revealed that the Bitcoin market sentiment is still at an extreme low after the latest run-up toward the $77,500 level. Contrary to general expectations, the latest spurt of bullish price action did not trigger a wave of FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment among investors.

According to data from Santiment, there are currently two bearish comments for every two bullish remarks about the world’s largest cryptocurrency. The on-chain analytics firm mentioned that retail investors are showing signs of fatigue related to the ongoing geopolitical tensions and continued ceasefire developments.

Related Reading: Stocks Are At All-Time Highs, Bitcoin Is Lagging: Is BTC Late To The Rally?

Santiment wrote on X:

So even though there is an end-of-week rally related to Trump’s latest announced ceasefire, retail appears to be taken any news with a grain of salt.

What’s interesting is that this FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) and not-so-bullish investor sentiment seems to spell good news for the Bitcoin price. Typically, rallies tend to be short-lived whenever investor sentiment overheats, aligning with the market theory that prices move in the opposite direction of the crowd.

As Santiment noted in its post on X, most traders are skeptical about the continued rally of the Bitcoin price, with many confidently expecting an $84,000 top (at the very best). However, the flagship cryptocurrency could surge past this expected top, as it has often done in the past.

Source: @santimentfeed on X

“This also is a good sign that a rally can shoot right past the small traders’ expected outcomes, and potentially surge to $90K+; Markets nearly always move opposite to the crowd’s expectations, so avoid following the herd,” the blockchain intelligence firm said.

Santiment, however, warned that new developments can emerge, meaning that the Bitcoin price trajectory could change in a heartbeat. From fresh developments in the Middle East tensions to whether the Clarity Act proposal reaches US President Donald Trump’s desk, there are several factors to watch out for over the coming weeks.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $77,381, reflecting 3% increase in the past 24 hours.

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

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The waning cryptocurrency market momentum, coupled with ongoing geopolitical tensions, continues to hamper Bitcoin’s price trajectory, pushing it downward. With BTC’s price and sentiment dropping significantly, the market appears to have entered a phase of heightened uncertainty and caution as investors look for alternative assets to hedge against geopolitical risks.

Bitcoin Weakness Reflects Broader Risk-Off Move

Bitcoin remains on a downward trajectory as its price trades below the $70,000 mark, bolstered by the geopolitical tensions around the world. Following the unfavorable conditions of Bitcoin and the sector, the market is now positioned at a critical moment, where the bearish action could either flip or continue.

Walter Bloomberg shared that Bitcoin is sliding as geopolitical risks spur risk-off trade after examining the cryptocurrency’s price against Nasdaq Futures. Such synchronous decrease indicates that market behavior across asset classes is once again being driven by macro variables like changing interest-rate expectations and a generalized feeling of risk aversion.

The report shows that Bitcoin fell by 1.7% to about $67,000 ahead of the United States Open, tracking weaker equity futures. Meanwhile, Nasdaq 100 Futures experienced a drop of 0.9% and S&P 500 contracts fell by 0.6%.

This development has impacted investors’ sentiment and focus. Currently, investors are becoming more cautious due to growing tensions over Iran, renewed discussions about AI’s broader economic effects, and uncertainty about a potential Fed rate cut following recent inflation data.

In the midst of the geopolitical tension, flows, especially from Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), have stayed negative. US-listed Bitcoin ETFs recorded a fourth consecutive week of outflows, with over $360 million withdrawn just last week. These outflows point to weakening sentiment as indicated by CryptoQuant’s Fear and Greed Index, which is positioned at 10, classified as extreme fear.

While the market has shifted into extreme fear levels, analysts believe that BTC might extend its ongoing consolidation phase, with $60,000 considered as the main support. However, further macro shocks are expected to push BTC’s price back toward the $50,000 threshold.

Which BTC Investors Are Under Stress

During increased bearish phases, investors’ action and activity are crucial to gauging the current market state and its next possible direction. In a recent analysis, Anil, an on-chain researcher and investor, has outlined a key divergence between Bitcoin short-term holders and long-term holders.

With the market’s current state, BTC short-term holders are going through a stress period driven by capitulation. Meanwhile, long-term Bitcoin holders have yet to undergo a true stress or capitulation process. 

It is worth noting that long-term holders eventually go through a phase of capitulation in every cycle, and then a fresh uptrend starts after a period of accumulation. However, it is hard to determine whether the group will capitulate again this time. Should this occur, Anil noted that the area below 1 on the LTH Unrealized Profit/Loss Ratio chart would be the decisive point for the market.

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Ethereum price might have experienced some modest recovery late last week. However, the popular altcoin still reflects a broader bearish structure. Interestingly, a recent on-chain evaluation has surfaced, which paints a dark picture for Ethereum’s mid-term future, as opposed to imagined sustained relief.

Taker Buy Sell Ratio Plummets To November 2025 Lows

In a recent post on QuickTake, market analyst CryptoOnchain reveals that Ethereum derivatives traders are currently being dominated by aggressive sellers as indicated by the Ethereum: Taker Buy Sell Ratio on Binance, smoothed over with the 30-day moving average.

For context, this metric measures whether aggressive market buyers or aggressive sellers are dominating the ETH futures market, and specifically on Binance (the world’s leading cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume). When the Taker Buy Sell ratio drops below the 1.00 threshold, it is a sign that taker sell volume is more than the taker buy volume.

Basically, this means that there are more aggressive sellers than there are buyers. On the other hand, sustained readings above 1.00 signal that the futures market is currently being dominated by aggressive buyers.

CryptoOnchain points out in his post that the metric’s readings currently sit around the 0.97 level, indicating that Ethereum’s current price action is being driven more by aggressive selling pressure.  The 0.97 zone, interestingly, is the lowest since November, 2025. CryptoOnchain explains that this reveals a bigger sentiment shift among Ethereum futures traders over the past month, rather than being a temporary reaction to price action.

 

What It Means For ETH Price

The decline of the Taker Buy Sell ratio to 0.97 does not guarantee an immediate sell-off; more accurately, it shows that the bears are more likely to profit from Ethereum in the short-term. In the event that this bearish pressure is absorbed by spot demand, a sell-off would not ensue. On the other hand, if demand at key support levels fails to buffer Ethereum’s fall, the second-largest cryptocurrency could fall further. 

In addition, if there is a sudden injection of demand, the futures market simultaneously retains its extremely bearish sentiment; the Ethereum market could see a short squeeze, where the leveraged short positions are wiped out, thereby pushing prices to the upside with momentum.

Hence, the Ethereum market is still in a very unstable phase, as prices could go in either direction, and with high momentum, depending on what happens first. As such, market participants are advised to tread the charts with caution. As of this writing, Ethereum holds a valuation of $2,085, reflecting a slight 1.7% gain since the past day, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Featured image from Flickr, chart from Tradingview

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have turned aggressive sellers in Indian equities, offloading shares worth Rs 33,598 crore through January 23, according to NSDL data. This marks the highest monthly outflow since August 2025.

This reflects a sharp deterioration in foreign sentiment towards Indian markets amid macroeconomic headwinds and persistent global uncertainty.

According to VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, FPIs not only continued their selling spree in the week ended January 23 but also intensified it. The sustained outflows have wiped off Rs 16 trillion in market capitalisation for the week alone, contributing to a 2.5% decline in the Nifty index.

Sentiments, he notes, remain fragile due to a combination of factors including the sustained depreciation of the rupee, weak Q3 earnings, and the absence of progress on the US-India trade deal.

A key driver behind this aggressive FII selling, Vijayakumar explains, has been the sharp slide in the rupee, which touched Rs 91.96 to the US dollar on January 23.

Market participants are concerned that delays in finalising the US-India trade agreement could widen India’s trade and current account deficits, further weakening the rupee and adding to macroeconomic pressure.

In his view, for FII confidence to return, two conditions need to be met: corporate earnings must improve, and clarity must emerge on the US-India trade pact. While some visibility exists on the former, with Q4 FY26 likely to show better numbers, he notes that there is no visibility at all on the timeline for the trade deal — a factor he describes as “the biggest uncertainty weighing on the market now.”Also read: Silver breaches $100/oz: Is the white metal’s best yet to come?

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Crypto analyst TARA has predicted that the Bitcoin price will still rally despite bearish signals that have surfaced. She highlighted why the flagship crypto could reach this level and what could happen once it touches the price target. 

Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Surge To $99,000

In an X post, TARA opined that the Bitcoin price will reach $99,300, even though the flagship crypto is printing a bearish candlestick. She stated that BTC wants to touch this price target before it retraces deeper so that the correction does not break the critical support at $90,000. The analyst added that retracement levels for BTC will continue to be adjusted, with the new 2026 high above $97,000, while revealing subwaves on the way to the full target at $103,000. 

Related Reading

Notably, crypto traders are currently betting on the Bitcoin price rallying past the $99,000 level and reaching the psychological $100,000 level. Polymarket data shows a 48% chance that BTC will rally to $100,000 this month. This follows the flagship crypto’s recent rally from around $92,000 to above $97,000 following the release of the soft CPI inflation data earlier this week. 

The spot Bitcoin ETFs have also contributed to the Bitcoin price surge to start the year. In an X post, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas highlighted that ETFs recorded net inflows of $843 million on January 14 and now boast 1-week net inflows of $1 billion and $1.5 billion year-to-date (YTD). With BTC rallying to $97,000 after trading sideways towards the end of last year, Balchunas opined that the buyers may have exhausted the sellers. 

Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Rally On Rising Liquidity

In his latest blog post, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted that the Bitcoin price could sustain this rally as dollar liquidity rapidly increases. Hayes expects dollar liquidity to increase as U.S. President Donald Trump finds more ways to inject liquidity into the economy. The BitMEX co-founder highlighted how Trump plans to lower mortgage rates, which could cause Americans to borrow more.  

Related Reading

Hayes also mentioned that the liquidity in 2025 didn’t support crypto portfolios, which is why the Bitcoin price underperformed. He urged market participants not to draw wrong conclusions from the 2025 underperformance, as it was always a liquidity story rather than a cyclical bear market, as some analysts suggested. 

More liquidity could also flow into the market as Trump nominates a rate-cut advocate to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell. This could lead to larger rate cuts, which would be bullish for the Bitcoin price and the broader crypto market. 

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $95,300, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

European shares bounced back on Monday with financials in the lead, as investors found comfort in growing U.S. interest rate cut bets while monitoring the progress on a Ukraine peace plan.

The pan-European STOXX 600 gained 0.6% to 565.27 points by 0815 GMT. The index logged its steepest weekly drop since late July on Friday.

Investors cheered U.S. Federal Reserve policymaker John Williams’ comments on Friday, where he said interest rates could fall “in the near term”, boosting the likelihood of a rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting.

The remarks come as other policymakers cautioned against further reductions until more clarity on U.S. economic health.

Heavyweight banks and technology stocks rose 1.1% each, while industrials rose 0.6%.

Meanwhile, the U.S. and Ukraine are set to continue work on a plan on Monday, after agreeing to modify an earlier proposal that was widely seen as too favourable to Moscow.Defence stocks in Europe fell over 3% on Friday as peace talks progressed. On Monday, they were down 0.4%.Bayer gained 8.9% to top the STOXX 600 after the pharma firm reported positive study results for its anticoagulant asundexian on Sunday.

This week, investors will be hawk-eyed on the British annual budget amid uncertainty over tax hikes on Wednesday and U.S. economic data through the week