ET Intelligence Group: The latest forecast by the India Meteorological Department predicting a stronger probability of deficient rainfall has heightened concerns over its effect on the country’s agricultural output and inflation trajectory this year. While prices of certain agri commodities such as oil seeds may be affected, the impact on the gross value added (GVA) of agriculture sector and on overall GDP growth is likely to remain limited given their weakening correlation with the extent of rainfall over the past two decades.

An analysis by ETIG shows that the correlation between the data on rainfall departure from the long period average (LPA) and agriculture GVA has remained negligible at under 0.05 over the past 25 years.

The rainfall-GDP growth correlation,too, is lower at around 0.07. Last Friday, the India Meteorological Department revised its estimate of monsoon rainfall to 90% of the LPA from 92% and raised the probability of the outcome to 60% from 35%. Economists cite multiple factors responsible for the lower correlation, including rising irrigated crop area, a growing share of Rabi crops in total farm production, and faster growth in livestock, forestry and fishing.

Additionally, the share of agriculture in the country’s total GVA has fallen to around 14% in FY25 from around 20% in FY12, driven by the growing services sector. ”The area under irrigation as a share of gross cropped area rose to 55.8% per cent in FY23 from 41.7% in FY02 implying lower dependence of crop output on direct rainfall,” said Rajani Sinha, chief economist, CareEdge Ratings.

A shift towards higher crop output during October-March period, known as the Rabi crop has also influenced the correlation. According to the third advance estimates of food grain production released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, Rabi output is expected to increase by 6.7% year-on year to 180.5 million tonnes while the Kharif crop is likely to grow by 3.9% to 176 million tonnes in FY26.

The share of Rabi crop in total food grains is expected to increase to nearly 48% from 47.3% a year ago while it will fall for Kharif crop to 46.8% from 47.4%.

“Rabi crop output has surpassed the Kharif output. The former relies more on winter rains and soil moisture. Hence reservoir positions and rain precipitation are important factors for Rabi,” said Devndra Pant, chief economist, India Ratings. The Kharif crop, which spans from June to September, relies heavily on the south-west monsoon and therefore it is more susceptible to the monsoon variations.

Indian stock market staged a sharp recovery, with Sensex and Nifty erasing morning losses to snap a four-session losing streak, led by a strong surge in IT stocks including heavyweight TCS, Infosys, HCL Tech and Tech Mahindra.

Sensex jumped 383 points to close at 74,650, while Nifty 50 gained 101 points to end the session at 23,484. This came as India VIX, which measures volatility in markets, tumbled more than 7% to 15.32.

TCS shares rallied nearly 7% to lead gains on Sensex, while Infosys shares jumped more than 5%. HCL Technologies shares meanwhile surged over 4%. On the other hand, NTPC, Axis Bank, Power Grid, Bajaj Finserv and others fell up to 3% to lead losses.

The optimism was broad-based, with Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices also closing in the green. Sectorally, Nifty IT led gains with a 4% jump. Nifty Pharma meanwhile fell around 1%. Nearly 2,034 stocks advanced on NSE, while 1,285 declined and 107 remained unchanged.

“Markets recovered from initial losses, led by gains in the IT sector, while continued accumulation in large-cap stocks reflected comfort with valuations, as the Nifty 50 trades closer to its long-term averages than the relatively richer valuations in broader markets,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments. He added that despite ongoing delays in a Middle East truce, global sentiment remained stable, highlighting resilience in risk appetite. With the earnings season largely concluded, investor focus has shifted to key macro factors including monsoon progress, inflation trends, RBI policy, and liquidity conditions, he added.

“The monsoon is expected to advance into southern regions this week, providing near-term sentiment support. While rainfall is projected to be below the long-period average and emerging El Nino risks warrant monitoring, healthy reservoir levels, well above the 10-year average, offer a cushion against potential shortfalls,” according to Nair.

The sharp optimism on Dalal Street came as global stocks rallied, buoyed by fresh AI optimism after Anthropic moved towards a US stock market listing, while oil prices and bond yields fell on renewed hopes of a US-Iran deal. Brent crude futures dropped more than 1% to $94 a barrel after US President Donald Trump said talks with Iran were ongoing.Anthropic on Monday said it has confidentially filed for a US initial public offering.. Google parent Alphabet is also seeking to raise $80 billion in equity to fund the expansion of its AI infrastructure.

Foreign investors meanwhile remained net sellers of Indian equities, net selling shares worth nearly Rs 3,912 crore on Dalal Street on Monday. This came after a massive Rs 22,102 crore selloff in just one session on May 29.

Notably, South Korea’s equity market has overtaken India’s as the world’s sixth largest, driven by a relentless surge in chip heavyweights powering the global artificial intelligence buildout.

(With inputs from agencies)
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Triveni Engineering & Industries Ltd reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 167.4 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, compared with Rs187.1 crore in the same period last year. Revenue for the quarter stood at Rs 1,833.7 crore, against Rs 1,925.3 crore a year earlier.

For the full financial year 2025-26, revenue from operations rose 11.9% to Rs 7,620.9 crore from Rs 6,807.9 crore in FY25. Net profit for the year increased 12.8% to Rs 268.7 crore, compared with Rs 238.3 crore in the previous financial year.

The company said its results include the financial impact of the amalgamation of Sir Shadi Lal Enterprises Ltd, effective April 1, 2025. The figures have been restated to reflect the acquisition date of June 20, 2024.

Triveni Engineering said the National Company Law Tribunal-approved Composite Scheme of Arrangement became effective on May 19, 2026, completing the merger and demerger process. Under the scheme, Sir Shadi Lal Enterprises has been amalgamated with Triveni, while the Power Transmission Business will be demerged into Triveni Power Transmission Ltd with effect from April 1, 2026.

The accounting impact of the demerger will be reflected in FY27. FY26 will be the last year in which the Power Transmission Business forms part of Triveni Engineering’s consolidated results. The business, which operates in the gears and defence segments, will be pursued independently under Triveni Power Transmission Ltd from FY27.

Truck-maker Ashok Leyland on Thursday reported a consolidated net profit of nearly Rs 1,291 crore for the January-March quarter of the financial year 2026, marking a 14% year-on-year (YoY) rise from the Rs 1,130 crore net profit reported in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year.

The firm’s revenue from operations meanwhile grew more than 17% YoY to Rs 17,246 crore during the quarter under review, as against Rs 14,695 crore reported in the year-ago period. Total expenses increased over 18% YoY to Rs 15,493 crore, while total income rose over 17% YoY to Rs 17,417 crore during the fourth quarter of the financial year which ended on March 31, 2026.

Along with the Q4 results, Ashok Leyland announced a second interim dividend of Rs 2.5 per share with a face value of Re 1 each for the financial year 2026. The dividend would be paid on or before June 26.

Ashok Leyland announces dividend

The record date to determine the eligibility of shareholders set to receive the payment has been fixed on June 3 (Wednesday). The company said that there will not be any final dividend for the financial year 2026.

Ashok Leyland said that its revenues overall rose 14% to Rs 44,007 crore during the financial year 2026, while profit increased 8% to Rs 3,566 crore, after a one-time charge of Rs 308 crore owing to the new labour code.

“Overall CV volumes scaled a new all-time high of 220,437 units, surpassing the previous peak of 197,366 units achieved in FY19. The CV Volumes in FY26 were up 13% from last year. LCV volumes set a new benchmark, reaching 74,322 units, well above the earlier high of 66,633 units in FY24. Export volumes also reached a historic high of 18,082 units, delivering a robust growth of 18.5% over the previous year’s 15,255 units. The Power Solutions and Aftermarket businesses continued their strong momentum, posting impressive growth during the year,” the company said.

What Ashok Leyland’s management says
Speaking about the company’s results, Ashok Leyland’s Chairman Dheeraj Hinduja said that achieving record-breaking milestones and delivering a strong financial performance across businesses is a matter of immense “pride for us”. “Our CV and export volumes were at an all-time high, reflecting the deep trust our customers place in us. The Company delivered significant growth in Power Solutions, Aftermarket and Electric Mobility businesses. Our Defence order pipeline is at its all-time high, signifying ability to deliver superior growth in the coming years. Our entry into Indonesia gives further boost to our ambition in global markets. The record financial performance is backed by relentless innovation, unwavering focus on customer satisfaction, and ability to accelerate our ambition in global markets. We are well-positioned to sustain profitable growth and create long-term value,” he added.

Ashok Leyland Managing Director & CEO Shenu Agarwal meanwhile said that FY26 was a defining year for the company, marked by record-breaking achievements across revenue, EBITDA, profitability and cash generation. “Our strong margin expansion reflects the success of our premiumization strategy, the resilience of our operations, and the growing strength of our diversified business portfolio. A record cash surplus of nearly Rs. 6,000 Cr provides us with significant firepower for enhanced investments in products, technology and future-ready solutions, while continuing to elevate customer experience. With consecutive three years of record performance, we are more confident than ever in our ability to strengthen our technology leadership, gain market share and further enhance price realization through superior value delivery,” he further said.

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India’s foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows increased 17.2% year-on-year to $94.5 billion in 2025-26, aided by overseas investor interest despite global macroeconomic uncertainty and volatile capital flows, according to the Reserve Bank of India’s latest monthly bulletin.

Gross FDI inflows stood at $94.5 billion in 2025-26 compared with $80.6 billion in the previous year, while net FDI inflows increased sharply to $7.7 billion from $1 billion a year ago.

“On the capital account, gross FDI has been encouraging,” the RBI said, adding that inflows are expected to remain robust amid a recent wave of greenfield investment announcements, particularly in the finance and technology sectors.

The central bank said that March marked the second consecutive month of positive net FDI inflows, despite moderation in gross inflows, aided by lower repatriation and outward FDI. Outward FDI also eased in March, with more than half of the investments directed towards Singapore, the UAE and the Netherlands.

Meanwhile, external commercial borrowings moderated to $43 billion in 2025-26 from $61.2 billion a year earlier, as Indian companies turned cautious on overseas borrowings amid elevated global interest rates and relatively attractive domestic funding conditions.

The RBI also flagged continued pressure from foreign portfolio investor (FPI) outflows. FPIs remained net sellers in April and May amid geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in West Asia, with cumulative outflows of about $10 billion so far in 2026-27, largely from equities.

Info Edge on Friday reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 566 crore in the March-ended quarter, compared to Rs 463 crore in the year-ago period, implying a 22% growth. The profit after tax (PAT) is attributable to the equity owners of the parent.

The Naukri and Jeevansathi operator posted a 16% revenue growth to Rs 869 crore in Q4FY26, compared to Rs 750 crore posted by the company in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year.

The company’s board also recommended a final dividend of Rs 3.60 per equity share for the financial year ended March 31, 2026, subject to declaration of the same by the members at the 31st Annual General Meeting scheduled on August 25, 2026. The company has fixed Friday, July 24, 2026, as the record date for determining shareholders’ eligibility.

On a standalone basis, Info Edge reported revenue from operations of Rs 805 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, recording a YoY growth of 17.2%. The operating profit grew by 39.4% YoY to Rs 323 crore, and the operating profit margin was 40% of revenue in Q4FY26.

The standalone business generated cash from operations (before taxes) of Rs 621.1 crore during the quarter.

For the full-year FY2025-26, the revenue from operations for the standalone business grew by 15.0% YoY to Rs. 3,052 crore and operating profit grew by 16.9% to Rs 1,138 crore.

The cash generated from operations (before taxes) for the full year was Rs 1,469 crore while revenue from the recruitment business grew by 13.8% YoY, and from non-recruitment businesses combined grew by 18.6% YoY for FY2025-26.

Management commentary
While announcing the results, Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer Hitesh Oberoi said FY26 was a steady year. “Topline grew at a measured pace, and operating margins improved through the year, especially in the Recruitment business. 99acres and Jeevansathi continued to gain market
share and strengthen their market positions,” he said.

“We also made significant progress in deploying AI across our businesses, deepening its usage in matching, recommendations, and developing new AI-native products and features, improving the value we deliver to users and customers,” he added.

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Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) reported a consolidated net profit at Rs 14,458 crore in the March-ended quarter versus Rs 8,124 crore in the year ago period, implying a 78% surge. The profits are attributable to the equity holders of the parent.

The revenue from operations posted a revenue growth of 7% to Rs 2,36,899 crore in Q4FY26 was versus Rs 2,21,360 crore posted by the company in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year.

The company’s board also recommended a final dividend of Rs 1.25 per equity share subject to the approval of the shareholders at the upcoming Annual General Meeting (AGM). The final dividend will be paid within 30 days from the date of declaration at the AGM. The record date for payment of final dividend would be fixed and intimated in due course.

The company’s profit after tax (PAT) grew 11% on a sequential basis versus Rs 13,007 crore in Q3FY26 while the topline saw a marginal uptick of 0.27% quarter-on-quart versus Rs 2,36,257 crore in the October-December quarter of FY2026.

The state-run oil marketing companies incurred expenses of Rs 2.19 lakh crore in the quarter under review versus Rs 2.20 crore and Rs 2.12 crore in the corresponding quarter of the last financial year. The expenses were made on ithe heads like ‘Cost of Materials Consumed’, excise duty, purchase of stock in trade, employee benefits and finance cost, among other things.

The profit before tax (PBT) in the quarter under review stood at Rs 19,791 crore in Q4FY26 versus Rs 17,827 crore in Q3FY26 and Rs 10,044 crore in Q4FY25.

The company assets as on March 31, 2026 stood at Rs 5,28,956 crore versus Rs 5,07,200 crore as on March 31, 2025.The company in its filing to exchanges said the conflict in Middle East region which began in February, led to supply uncertainties and resultant volatility in the price of crude oil and petroleum products in the international market. However, the profitability for the year 2025-26 was largely insulated from the impact of these developments due to inventory procured at normal prices before the conflict, the filing said.

The company improved its debt-to-equity ratio to 0.53 in Q4FY26 versus 0.60 in Q3FY26 and 0.75 in Q4FY25.

The profit margin stood at 6.41% in Q4FY26 versus 5.72% in Q3FY26 and 3.78% in Q4FY25 while operating margin stood at 8.40% in Q4FY26 versus 7.94% in Q3FY26 and 4.96% in Q4FY25.

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Delhivery on Saturday reported a marginal 0.2% year-on-year decline in net profit for Q4FY26 at Rs 72.4 crore, compared with Rs.72.6 crore in the same quarter last year. PAT before E-com integration costs and exceptional items came in at Rs 87 crore.

Revenue for the quarter rose 30% year-on-year to Rs.2,850 crore from Rs 2,191.6 crore a year ago. Quarterly EBITDA increased 80% to Rs 214.2 crore from Rs 119.1 crore in the corresponding period last year. EBITDA margin expanded to 7.5% from 5.4%.

For Q4FY26, express parcel volumes rose 72% year-on-year to 306 million shipments, while PTL freight volume increased 20% to 549,000 metric tonnes.

During the quarter, Delhivery introduced an AI agent-powered autonomous transport management system for freight procurement, shipment planning, execution and invoice reconciliation.

The company also expanded Delhivery International’s economy air-parcel services to the UK, Canada and Australia, and launched Delhivery One SmartAssist, an AI-driven customer support agent integrated into the platform.

The company said its FY26 consolidated performance turned free cash flow positive at Rs 89 crore, while revenue from services crossed Rs.10,486 crore. Delhivery reported FY26 express parcel volumes of 1 billion shipments. PTL freight volume stood at around 2 million metric tonnes, marking a 17% year-on-year increase.

FY26 EBITDA stood at Rs.764 crore with a margin of 7.3%, which the company said was nearly double FY25 EBITDA. PAT before Ecom integration costs and exceptional items for FY26 came in at Rs.347 crore, while consolidated PAT stood at Rs.153 crore.The company said the transport business comprising Express and PTL delivered 16% ROIC during FY26. Cash and cash equivalents stood at Rs.4,555 crore as of March 2026.

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Steel Authority of India (SAIL) reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 1,835 crore in the March-ended quarter versus Rs 1,251 crore in the year ago period, a 47% YoY growth. The profit after tax (PAT) is attributable to the owners of the parent.

The state-run company posted a revenue growth of 5% to Rs 30,813 crore in Q4FY26 versus Rs 29,316 crore posted in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year.

The company’s bottom line surged by a whopping 391% on a sequential basis versus Rs 374 crore in Q3FY26 while the topline grew 13% quarter-on-quarter versus Rs 27,371 crore posted in the October-December quarter of FY26.

The company’s board also recommended a final dividend of Rs 2.35 per equity share for the financial year 2025-26. The final dividend for FY26 will be paid within 30 days from the date of approval by the shareholders in the upcoming Annual General Meeting (AGM).

On the standalone basis, the PAT stood at Rs 1,680 crore versus Rs 1,178 crore, up 43% YoY while sales in the quarter under review, stood at Rs 30,541 crore versus Rs 29,121 crore, rising by 5%.

The Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) stood at Rs 4,762 core versus Rs 3,781 core in the year ago period. It stood at Rs 2,630 crore in Q3FY26.

For full financial year, the standalone PAT stood at Rs 3,233 crore in FY26 versus Rs 2,148 crore in FY25 while sales turnover in the same period stood at Rs 1,09,966 crore in the same period compared to Rs 1,01,716 crore in FY25. On the crude steel production outlook, the company said that steel production has been coming down every year barring 2023 where marginal increase was witnessed. The first 3 months of the current year have also seen the production falling by 2.3 over CPLY with China registering degrowth of 4.6% despite marginal increase in production in Rest of the World (RoW).

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