Data shows the Estimated Leverage Ratio has seen a sharp decline for Ethereum on Binance, a sign that traders have been pulling back on risk.

Ethereum Leverage Ratio Has Dropped To A Value Of 0.57

As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, speculative activity in the Binance Ethereum derivatives market has observed a cooldown recently. The indicator of relevance here is the “Estimated Leverage Ratio” (ELR), which tracks the ratio between the ETH Open Interest and Derivatives Exchange Reserve.

The former metric, the Open Interest, measures the total amount of positions related to the cryptocurrency that are currently open on a given centralized derivatives exchange. Meanwhile, the latter is the amount of the asset sitting in wallets connected to that platform. Since the ELR takes the ratio of the two, it essentially tells us about how much leverage investors are opting for against the average position.

When the value of the indicator is high, it means the Open Interest is significant compared to the Exchange Reserve. Such a trend suggests the average trader on the exchange is opting for a high amount of risk. On the other hand, the metric being low implies investors aren’t taking on much leverage on their positions, a potential sign that market interest in speculative activity is low.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Ethereum ELR for Binance over the last few months:

The value of the metric seems to have plunged over the last few weeks | Source: CryptoQuant

As displayed in the above graph, the Ethereum ELR for Binance surged to a high level back in March. This uptick in leverage usage coincided with a recovery run in the cryptocurrency. The rally failed to sustain, and with it, speculation also noted a cooldown. In April, the market again made a recovery, and while investors took some risks initially, the ELR interestingly ended up following an overall downtrend. This means that this new surge hasn’t been able to attract the more speculative traders to the cryptocurrency.

Today, the ELR is sitting at a value of 0.57, implying that the Open Interest is 57% of the Binance derivatives reserve. For comparison, the metric peaked at 0.76 back in March. While the decline in the indicator does signal that investors have become more risk-averse, it may not entirely be a bad sign for Ethereum. In the past, periods with extreme leverage usage in the derivatives market have often unwound with volatility.

Given that the ELR has calmed down recently, it’s possible that the market could show some stability in the near future. That said, it only remains to be seen how the metric will develop in the coming days.

ETH Price

At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading around $2,330, unchanged from one week ago.

Looks like the price of the coin has been consolidating recently | Source: ETHUSDT on TradingView

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

The price of Bitcoin has been stuck in a consolidation range below $70,000 so far this week, after spending most of the previous weekend above it. While the flagship cryptocurrency’s price movement has been largely — and painfully — sideways in recent weeks, this represents a notable improvement from how the month of February started.

The new month ushered in a fresh low just above the $61,000 level for Bitcoin, confirming the start of the bear market. Amidst the relative stability in recent weeks, a recent on-chain evaluation suggests that BTC and the broader cryptocurrency mark is still at risk of further downside volatility.

BTC’s Future In The Hands Of Large Investors: CryptoQuant

In the last bull cycle, the price action of Bitcoin was heavily influenced and impacted by the increased influx and activity of institutional investors (primarily through the spot exchange-traded funds). Similarly, it appears that the large investor cohort will still be at the wheel even during the bear market.

According to CryptoQuant’s latest market report, the Bitcoin exchange inflows — and the immediate selling pressure — have normalized since the capitulation spike in early February. This trend can be seen in the decline in exchange inflows from around 60,000 BTC at the start of the month to around 23,000 BTC now.

While the acute sell-off phase appears to be easing off, a troubling trend seems to be brewing among Bitcoin’s largest investors. In its market report, CryptoQuant highlighted that the BTC exchange whale ratio has climbed to 0.64, its highest level since 2015, suggesting that whale inflows account for a significant portion of the exchange deposits being seen.

Source: CryptoQuant

Meanwhile, the average BTC deposit size has also reached a level not seen since mid-2022, during the heat of the last bear market. This trend further reinforces the idea that institutional or large investors are behind the increasing exchange supply.

CryptoQuant noted that the altcoin market is still facing elevated distribution pressure, with the average daily number of altcoin exchange deposits rising from 40,000 in Q4 2025 to 49,000 in 2026. This continuous capital rotation out of riskier assets reflects weakened market confidence and increases the risk of downside volatility.

Source: CryptoQuant

Meanwhile, the ongoing flow of stablecoins out of exchanges points to a decline in marginal buying power (or “dry powder”) in the Bitcoin market. According to CryptoQuant data, net USDT flows into exchanges have fallen sharply from a one-year high of $616M in November 2025 to only $27M, turning negative at times (-$469M in late January).

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin stands at around $67,580, reflecting a mild 1% increase in the past 24 hours.

The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Ethereum price might have experienced some modest recovery late last week. However, the popular altcoin still reflects a broader bearish structure. Interestingly, a recent on-chain evaluation has surfaced, which paints a dark picture for Ethereum’s mid-term future, as opposed to imagined sustained relief.

Taker Buy Sell Ratio Plummets To November 2025 Lows

In a recent post on QuickTake, market analyst CryptoOnchain reveals that Ethereum derivatives traders are currently being dominated by aggressive sellers as indicated by the Ethereum: Taker Buy Sell Ratio on Binance, smoothed over with the 30-day moving average.

For context, this metric measures whether aggressive market buyers or aggressive sellers are dominating the ETH futures market, and specifically on Binance (the world’s leading cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume). When the Taker Buy Sell ratio drops below the 1.00 threshold, it is a sign that taker sell volume is more than the taker buy volume.

Basically, this means that there are more aggressive sellers than there are buyers. On the other hand, sustained readings above 1.00 signal that the futures market is currently being dominated by aggressive buyers.

CryptoOnchain points out in his post that the metric’s readings currently sit around the 0.97 level, indicating that Ethereum’s current price action is being driven more by aggressive selling pressure.  The 0.97 zone, interestingly, is the lowest since November, 2025. CryptoOnchain explains that this reveals a bigger sentiment shift among Ethereum futures traders over the past month, rather than being a temporary reaction to price action.

 

What It Means For ETH Price

The decline of the Taker Buy Sell ratio to 0.97 does not guarantee an immediate sell-off; more accurately, it shows that the bears are more likely to profit from Ethereum in the short-term. In the event that this bearish pressure is absorbed by spot demand, a sell-off would not ensue. On the other hand, if demand at key support levels fails to buffer Ethereum’s fall, the second-largest cryptocurrency could fall further. 

In addition, if there is a sudden injection of demand, the futures market simultaneously retains its extremely bearish sentiment; the Ethereum market could see a short squeeze, where the leveraged short positions are wiped out, thereby pushing prices to the upside with momentum.

Hence, the Ethereum market is still in a very unstable phase, as prices could go in either direction, and with high momentum, depending on what happens first. As such, market participants are advised to tread the charts with caution. As of this writing, Ethereum holds a valuation of $2,085, reflecting a slight 1.7% gain since the past day, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Featured image from Flickr, chart from Tradingview

If there has been any doubt about the arrival of the bear market, the latest drop in the Bitcoin price to around $81,000 somewhat made it more believable. While different triggers, including geopolitical tensions, Microsoft’s earnings miss, and liquidation cascades, have been credited for this drop, the premier cryptocurrency seems to be struggling catch any break at the moment.

Interestingly, the latest decline not only shattered the remains of the Bitcoin price bullish structure but also tilted the on-chain framework towards an even more bearish outlook. With both technical and on-chain data looking less optimistic, the bears appear to be winning the battle for dominance in the BTC market.  

This Metric Changes First, BTC Price Reacts Later: Crypto Founder

In a January 30 post on the X platform, Alphractal’s founder and CEO, Joao Wedson, revealed that the Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio is declining at a rate faster than the BTC price. The relevant indicator here is the Sharpe Ratio, which assesses the risk-adjusted returns of a particular cryptocurrency (Bitcoin, in this case).

This on-chain metric basically tracks the amount of profit an investment offers per unit of risk (considering risk is measured by volatility), with a high value signaling a higher risk-adjusted performance. Meanwhile, a negative Sharpe Ratio indicates that the returns being realized on an investment are not commensurate with the risk being taken.

Wedson wrote in his post on X:

Simply put: the market is taking more risk for less return.

Source: @joao_wedson on X

Indeed, the Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio slipped into the negative territory a few days into the new year. However, BTC’s price action still enjoyed an incredible run of form — running to as high as $97,000 — after this shift, placing less significance on the on-chain observation.

What’s more interesting is that the Sharpe Ratio is falling and weakening at a pace faster than the Bitcoin price. Historically, this rate of decline has often coincided with extended periods of momentum loss and sideways price movement. In fact, Wedson concluded that the risk-adjusted metrics need to change before price can react positively.

Bitcoin Price Could Fall To $65,500 If This Happens

In a case where the premier cryptocurrency continues its downward spiral, Wedson has projected a target for the BTC price. In an older post on X, the Alphractal founder had revealed that the Bitcoin price cannot lose the $81,000 level under any circumstances.

The on-chain expert stated that a capitulation phase similar to the one seen in 2022 could unfold if the market leader breaks below the $81,000 level. Based on the Fibonacci-Adjusted Market Mean Price, Wedson identified $65,500 as the next major support level.

The $81,000 came under focus as the Bitcoin price approached this level during its decline on Thursday, January 29. As of this writing, though, BTC has recovered above the $83,000 mark, with the price still down by nearly 8% on the weekly timeframe.

The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

HDFC Asset Management Company is emerging from a two-year regulatory cloud after the Securities and Exchange Board of India’s final overhaul of mutual fund expense rules reduced the severity of proposed fee cuts, restoring visibility on earnings and valuations for the country’s largest asset managers, with the stock rising more than 7% in the previous session.

The rally on Thursday followed Sebi’s decision to introduce a base expense ratio that separates statutory levies such as GST from core fund management costs, while retaining the overall total expense ratio framework. The final rules, announced after the regulator’s board meeting, were widely viewed as far less punitive than feared and are set to take effect from April 1, 2026. Uncertainty around mutual fund fees has weighed on AMC stocks since 2023, triggering sharp corrections after Sebi’s October consultation paper.

Brokerages say the final framework delivers four clear positives for HDFC AMC: lower-than-expected cuts to total expense ratios, the exclusion of GST and statutory levies through the base expense ratio, brokerage caps that are materially higher than initially proposed, and greater flexibility for AMCs to share part of the impact with distributors.

“SEBI’s final expense caps for MFs offer some relief, vis-a-vis the proposal in Oct-25,” Jefferies said, estimating the net impact of the changes at 3–5 basis points of equity assets under management, with AMCs likely to share costs across the ecosystem.

Brokerage views: relief, not windfall

The key negative remains Sebi’s decision to remove the additional 5 basis points that AMCs could charge on schemes with exit loads. Prabhudas Lilladher described this as “negative for AMCs as 5bps would be directly reduced from equity TER,” but said the impact was partly passable and already reflected in stock prices after earlier corrections. The brokerage added that for large players such as HDFC AMC, “there is no material change in core earnings” following the Sebi changes.

Jefferies maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on HDFC AMC with a target price of Rs 6,620, implying about 30% upside from earlier levels, valuing the stock at 36 times December 2027 estimated earnings. “Risks include prolonged down-cycle in equity markets, inability to gain market share especially in equities, tepid NFO responses, and limited progress on style diversification,” the brokerage said.

JM Financial also struck a more constructive note, saying the impact of Sebi’s final rules was significantly lower than initially feared. “Net impact from change in slabs and carving out GST, and removal of exit load will be 2-3bps, this would result in a 2-4 hit to revenues and a 3-4 hit on FY27e PAT for HDFC AMC,” the brokerage said. “We expect the mutual funds to pass on some of the impact to the distributors, effectively resulting in an earnings cut of 2.” JM Financial rates the stock ‘Add’ with a 12-month target price of Rs 3,100.

Centrum Broking was more cautious, estimating that “if AMCs take no mitigating action, the estimated hit on FY27E PBT is expected to be around Rs 3.2 billion for HDFC AMC (7.7% of PBT),” though it noted that the reduced severity of TER cuts above higher asset thresholds should partly offset the pressure.

Pricing in the pain

AMC stocks had corrected 4–5% after Sebi’s October discussion paper, suggesting markets had already priced in a significant portion of the potential impact. “The 5bps impact seems to be priced in,” Prabhudas Lilladher said, noting that consensus estimates had already assumed a 50% pass-through to distributors.

JM Financial echoed that view, saying the final regulations were “considerate towards the mutual funds and the brokerages working with them,” with the impact on AMCs expected to be “very marginal.”

Strong operating base

The regulatory clarity comes at a time when HDFC AMC has been reporting steady operating performance. The company posted a 24% year-on-year increase in net profit to Rs 718 crore for the September quarter, while revenue from operations rose 16% to Rs 1,026 crore. Average assets under management climbed to Rs 8.81 lakh crore during the quarter, reflecting continued inflows and market appreciation.

The company has also taken shareholder-friendly steps, including approving its first-ever bonus issue in a 1:1 ratio and paying a final dividend of Rs 90 per share for the year ended March 31, 2025.

With Sebi’s long-awaited decision now in place and most of the regulatory risk already absorbed by markets, analysts say attention is shifting back to HDFC AMC’s ability to sustain equity market share, navigate market cycles and deliver earnings growth—without the shadow of sweeping fee cuts hanging over the sector.

Also read | HDFC AMC, Nippon Life, other AMC stocks rally up to 7% after Sebi’s mutual fund expense ratio rule changes
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)

The Bitcoin market continues to reflect much uncertainty, as the price shows little to no signs of recovery from the obvious bearish trend established in the last two weeks. However, on-chain data has surfaced that puts into perspective the price action of the flagship cryptocurrency and what market participants can, as a result, realistically anticipate.

Binance And Other Major Exchanges Witness Capitulation 

In a recent QuickTake post on the CryptoQuant platform, analyst CryptoOnchain revealed a drastic change noticed across top exchanges involved with Bitcoin transactions. The relevant indicator here is the Bitcoin Taker Buy Ratio, which gauges the proportion of trading volume initiated by the buyers against the magnitude of transactions elicited by sellers. In this case, the analyst measured the Taker Buy Ratio on Binance and that on “All Exchanges” as a collective. 

A reading above 0.5 represents the presence of more buyers as opposed to the relative scarcity of sellers. On the flip side, values below 0.5 points at the preponderance of sellers across the measured exchange. As was reported by CryptoOnchain, the Bitcoin Taker Buy Ratio recently fell to a “multi-year low” of about 0.47. Clearly seen on Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, a Taker Buy Ratio below 0.5 is expectedly to back the overwhelming sell pressure seen reflected on Bitcoin’s price.

What’s interesting about this surge in sell pressure is how it follows the recent spike previously noted in exchange inflows. The analyst explains completes a typical capitulation sequence starts with “panic inflows,” a scenario where investors hurriedly move their BTC holdings to exchanges. After this, aggressive selling follows suit, increasing bearish pressure on the price. 

Usually, when the market records this high a magnitude of sales, it means the market sentiment could be in a state of fear. True to this, the analyst explained that “the dominance of aggressive sellers over the buyers has reached an extreme point.”

Bitcoin Market Outlook

At the moment, there is a high possibility that the bearish pressure dominating the market could send Bitcoin’s price further towards the downside, seeing as the market appears to struggle against this wave of supply. 

However, CryptoOnchain reemphasized known historical trends suggesting that this kind of capitulation event, where the market flushes out the weak hands, has often preceded the establishment of a market bottom. If history is anything to go by, the Bitcoin market could be nearing price levels where it begins to see significant bullish reversals. 

For this to be possible, the analyst added a caveat that it most likely would be on the condition that the 0.5 level has been decisively reclaimed, especially if it were to occur on a large exchange like Binance. As of press time, Bitcoin is worth approximately $106,900, with a slight but insignificant growth of 0.3% over the past day. 

Featured image from Flickr, chart from Tradingview

The price of Ethereum had quite a rough performance over the past week, falling from its usual range above the $4,600 level to below $4,500. Despite the injection of bullish momentum into the market by the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut, the “king of altcoins” failed to sustain its rally back to the $4,600 region.

According to the latest on-chain data, the Ethereum price could be gearing up for an even longer time in the cold, as investors seem to be turning away from the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap. The question, though, is how deep the price of ETH will fall in the coming weeks?

ETH Price At Risk Of Return To $1,500?

In a recent post on the social media platform X, pseudonymous crypto analyst Darkfost revealed that the Ethereum investors might be flooding out of the market at the moment. This observation is based on the recent downturn in the ETH Taker Buy-Sell Ratio on the world’s largest crypto exchange by trading volume.

Related Reading

The Taker Buy-Sell Ratio is an on-chain indicator that compares the proportion of the taker buy volumes to the taker sell volumes on crypto exchanges. When the value of this metric is greater than one, it signals that the taker buy volume is higher than the taker sell volume on a crypto exchange. This trend typically points to the willingness of more traders to purchase coins at a higher value on the trading platform.

Meanwhile, a less-than-one value for the Taker Buy-Sell Ratio typically means that the taker sell volume is higher than the taker buy volume on the exchange. Ultimately, this low value indicates that more sellers are offloading their assets at a lower price, precipitating bearish pressure in the market.

According to data from CryptoQuant, the Ethereum Taker Buy-Sell Ratio fell below the 1 threshold to around 0.87 on Friday, September 19. This latest decline marked the third time this metric has fallen this low so far in 2025.

As observed in the above chart, Darkfost noted that the indicator fell as low as 0.85 in January and February 2025. This ratio decline coincided with the bearish trend, during which the price of Ethereum fell to around the $1,500 region.

As of the time of publishing their post on X, Darkfost revealed that the 7-day average of the Taker Buy-Sell Ratio stood at 0.93, which is still short of the 1 threshold. The on-chain analyst concluded that while the Ethereum price is looking to break above the $5,000 milestone, more investors seem to be increasingly betting against the altcoin’s rally. 

Although it is highly unlikely to see a downturn similar to the one in 2025’s first quarter, the latest on-chain events suggest that the price of ETH could still face some bearish pressure in the coming weeks.

Ethereum Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of ETH stands at around $4,475, reflecting a mere 0.4% leap in the past 24 hours.

Related Reading

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Edyme’s foray into the crypto universe is nothing short of cinematic. His journey began not with a triumphant investment, but with a scam. Yes, a Ponzi scheme that used crypto as payment roped him in. Rather than retreating, he emerged wiser and more determined, channeling his experience into over three years of insightful market analysis.

Before becoming the voice of reason in the crypto space, Edyme was the quintessential crypto degen. He aped into anything that promised a quick buck, anything ape-able, learning the ropes the hard way. These hands-on experience through major market events—like the Terra Luna crash, the wave of bankruptcies in crypto firms, the notorious FTX collapse, and even CZ’s arrest—has honed his keen sense of market dynamics.

When he isn’t crafting engaging crypto content, you’ll find Edyme backtesting charts, studying both forex and synthetic indices. His dedication to mastering the art of trading is as relentless as his pursuit of the next big story. Away from his screens, he can be found in the gym, airpods in, working out and listening to his favorite artist, NF. Or maybe he’s catching some Z’s or scrolling through Elon Musk’s very own X platform—(oops, another screen activity, my bad…)

Well, being an introvert, Edyme thrives in the digital realm, preferring online interaction over offline encounters—(don’t judge, that’s just how he is built). His determination is quite unwavering to be honest, and he embodies the philosophy of continuous improvement, or “kaizen,” striving to be 1% better every day. His mantras, “God knows best” and “Everything is still on track,” reflect his resilient outlook and how he lives his life.

In a nutshell, Samuel Edyme was born efficient, driven by ambition, and perhaps a touch fierce. He’s neither artistic nor unrealistic, and certainly not chauvinistic. Think of him as Bruce Willis in a train wreck—unflappable. Edyme is like trading in your car for a jet—bold. He’s the guy who’d ask his boss for a pay cut just to prove a point—(uhhh…). He is like watching your kid take his first steps. Imagine Bill Gates struggling with rent—okay, maybe that’s a stretch, but you get the idea, yeah. Unbelievable? Yes. Inconceivable? Perhaps.

Edyme sees himself as a fairly reasonable guy, albeit a bit stubborn. Normal to you is not to him. He is not the one to take the easy road, and why would he? That’s just not the way he roll. He has these favorite lyrics from NF’s “Clouds” that resonate deeply with him: “What you think’s probably unfeasible, I’ve done already a hundredfold.”

PS—Edyme is HIM. HIM-buktu. Him-mulation. Him-Kardashian. Himon and Pumba. He even had his DNA tested, and guess what? He’s 100% Him-alayan. Screw it, he ate the opp.

Ethereum is now at the center of market attention as Bitcoin fails to confirm a breakout above its all-time highs. While BTC’s momentum stalls, altcoins are struggling to extend their strength, leaving Ethereum in a decisive position. Trading above $4,400, ETH is now less than 10% away from reaching new record highs.

Bulls remain confident in a continuation of the uptrend. Analysts argue that accumulation trends and strong on-chain activity point to further gains ahead. Exchange reserves continue to decline, while OTC desks show thinning liquidity, suggesting demand is outpacing available supply. This combination has historically preceded sharp upward moves.

However, risks are also growing as the market enters a new phase. With Bitcoin showing weakness near its highs, Ethereum’s ability to decouple and push forward will determine the direction of altcoins broadly. Some analysts view this as the beginning of a true altseason, while others warn that failure to sustain momentum could trigger a correction.

Ethereum MVRV Ratio Signals Potential Short-Term Pullback

According to top analyst On-Chain Mind, Ethereum’s MVRV ratio is moving into the +3σ to +4σ zone, a range that has historically marked overheated conditions and led to short-term pullbacks. This suggests that profit-taking pressure is likely to surface between $4,600 and $5,200, creating a critical test for ETH in the days ahead.

Despite these risks, Ethereum remains strong, less than 10% away from new all-time highs, and many analysts believe a breakout could still materialize. Some expect consolidation as short-term holders lock in gains, while others view the current setup as the prelude to Ethereum pushing decisively beyond its previous highs.

Institutional accumulation continues to accelerate, with large players treating ETH as both an investment and a strategic asset. Meanwhile, legal clarity across key jurisdictions has reduced uncertainty, creating a more stable environment for long-term adoption. At the same time, exchange supply has been steadily declining, signaling conviction among holders and reducing potential selling pressure.

If Ethereum breaks through resistance levels despite its overheated MVRV, it could spark a powerful continuation rally, potentially leading the broader altcoin market. However, if profit-taking dominates, a pullback would not weaken the bullish trend but instead set the stage for healthier continuation later.