The price performance of Ethereum was disappointing for most of May, as the bears seemed to be in full control. It doesn’t seem like much will change for the “King of Altcoins” in the new month, which appears to be a mere continuation of the established downward trend. According to a popular analyst on the social media platform X, the Ethereum price could be on its way down to around $1,850.

Is ETH Price Stuck In A Descending Channel?

Crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci took to the X platform to share his projection for the Ethereum price over the coming days. The market pundit posited that the second-largest cryptocurrency could decline toward the $1,822-$1,850 range if it fails to break the $2,033 resistance in the next few days.

This bearish outlook is premised on the fact that sellers have been in a dominant position in the short term and for much of the past month. This dominance is evident in the formation of a descending channel on the four-hour timeframe of the Ethereum price chart.

A descending channel is a technical analysis chart pattern characterized by two major trendlines: the upper boundary connecting the lower highs and the lower line connecting the lower lows. This chart formation is often correlated to a bearish structure, with the upper trendline acting as resistance and the lower boundary as the price floor.

Source: @burak_kesmeci on X

According to Kesmeci, the persistence of the Ethereum price within the descending channel and the weak price momentum suggest that a downward move is on the cards. The crypto analyst highlighted that ETH could drop to the $1,822 – $1,850 range, so long as the overhead resistance at the upper boundary of $2,033 (Fibonacci 0.5) holds.

However, there is also the flipside scenario in which the price of Ethereum could break out toward $2,400 if the $2.033 resistance is breached. However, the decline toward the $1,850 region seems more likely, especially given current demand conditions.

Ethereum ETFs Post $241 Million In Outflows Over The Past Week

This dwindling demand in the Ethereum market is evident in rising spot ETF outflows, which climbed above $241 million over the past week. This past week’s record marked the third consecutive week with significant net outflows for the spot ETH exchange-traded funds.

The Ethereum price action over the past three weeks has been a fair reflection of this pessimistic market condition. According to CoinGecko data, the second-largest cryptocurrency has lost nearly 15% of its value in the last three weeks.

As of this writing, the price of ETH stands at around $2,023, with no significant change in the past 24 hours.

The price of ETH on the daily timeframe | Source: ETHUSDT chart on TradingView

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Over the last month, Bitcoin prices have dipped by 3.45% net, as the leading cryptocurrency struggles to sustain its April momentum. During this time, Bitcoin has faced multiple rejections at the $82,000 price zone, triggering a sustained downward trend since mid-May. In his latest market analysis, renowned expert Maartunn has provided insight into this decline, a fragile market structure shaped by multiple layers of sell-offs. 

In an X post on May 29, Maartunn reports that Bitcoin’s price has now dropped by 11% over the last 14 days. However, in-depth market research shows that this price loss is merely a symptom of a concerning structural issue in the sector, marked by the concurrent exit of various market participants.

One of these actors is the future traders who are taking aggressive selling positions. According to data from CryptoQuant, selling pressure in the derivatives market has reached its highest level since March, with net taker volume plunging to -$948 million. On average, sellers have exceeded buyers by roughly $40 million per hour, indicating a sustained pressure rather than a one-off event.

Bitcoin is down 11% in the last 14 days.

The sell-off isn’t just showing up in price:

• Futures traders are aggressively selling
• US spot investors are reducing exposure
• ETF outflows continue to accelerate

The data points to one of the strongest waves of selling… pic.twitter.com/nzeMu9X2Yq

— Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) May 29, 2026

Meanwhile, US spot market participants appear to be leaning bearish. On-chain metrics reveal that Coinbase is trading at a 0.21% discount compared to Binance, reflecting a negative Coinbase Premium. This negative spread indicates that selling pressure is stronger among US-based investors, as Bitcoin is being offloaded more aggressively on Coinbase than on offshore exchanges.

Finally, institutional investors are also adopting a more cautious stance marked by two consecutive weeks of outflows. Over this period, approximately $1 billion has been withdrawn from iShares Bitcoin Trust in the past week alone. This sustained reduction in institutional exposure signals a notable decline in demand, adding another layer of resistance to any near-term bullish breakout.

Positive Signs Exist, But Market Recovery Remains Historically Far Away

Amid the negative and concerning dominant market trends, Maartunn importantly notes early positive signals suggesting a potential market rebound. One of these signals is the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) indicator, which is rising, suggesting that stablecoin liquidity is increasing relative to Bitcoin’s market value. This condition often precedes renewed buying power.

Additionally, net taker volume is nearing typical exhaustion levels, indicating that aggressive selling pressure may be nearing its limit. Such extreme sell-side conditions have often marked local bottoms, as “smart money” tends to step in during periods of capitulation to accumulate positions at discounted levels. 

However, while a short-term relief rally remains possible, the case for a sustained long-term recovery appears less convincing at this stage. Historical data show that Bitcoin’s cycle lows have typically formed significantly later after each halving event, i.e., around 889 days in 2016, and 925 days in the 2020 cycle. In comparison, the current cycle is only about 768 days post-halving, suggesting that the market may still be within a broader corrective phase rather than approaching a definitive macro bottom.

Bitcoin Market Overview

At press time, Bitcoin is valued at $73,309, down 3.32% over the last week.

Featured image from Flickr, chart from Tradingview

According to reports, Fundstrat analysts are sending mixed signals about Bitcoin’s path in 2026. One line of work inside the firm sees a noticeable pullback early next year, while another predicts new highs arriving soon after.

Related Reading

Sean Farrell, Fundstrat’s head of digital asset strategy, is reported to have told clients that a “base case” would see Bitcoin move down toward the $60,000–$65,000 range in the first half of 2026.

The same internal material attributes fallbacks for other major tokens — ETH toward about $1.8K–$2K and SOL near $50–$75 — which were framed as potential buying opportunities should markets correct.

Risk Models And Shorter Time Horizons

Farrell’s note, which has circulated as screenshots on social media and among clients, stresses risk management and the possibility of a meaningful drawdown before any sustained rally.

Fundstrat’s head of digital asset strategy, Sean Farrell, says $BTC to $60k as base case, 1H 2026.

Fundstrat’s head, Tom Lee, says $BTC to ATH’s, even up to $200k, by end of Jan 2026.

Is this normal for funds to contradict each other within?

Honest question. pic.twitter.com/KETNygLEtu

— Heisenberg (@Mr_Derivatives) December 20, 2025

The language in those client slides points to cautious positioning and to taking advantage of lower price levels if they arrive.

Tom Lee’s Bullish Outlook Remains Publicly Strong

By contrast, Tom Lee — Fundstrat’s co-founder and a longstanding voice on Bitcoin — has publicly said he expects new all-time highs in early 2026, with some media summaries quoting optimistic ranges as high as $200,000 by late January 2026.

Well stated @ConvexDispatch
https://t.co/8kWrgcl6ml

— Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FSInsight.com (@fundstrat) December 20, 2025

He has emphasized macro drivers, institutional flows, and cycle dynamics as reasons for continued upside in the coming months.

Different Roles, Different Time Frames

Reports have disclosed that the two views reflect different analytical roles inside the firm: one focused on portfolio-level downside planning and the other on longer-term macro scenarios.

Several clients and observers on X (formerly Twitter) have pushed back on the idea that these are contradictory; instead, they say the notes reflect distinct mandates and time frames.

Market Reaction and What Investors Are Hearing Now

Markets reacted to the story with a mix of skepticism and quick profit-taking. Some traders flagged how fast sentiment can change when internal notes leak, while others said the range of outcomes — from roughly $60,000 to $200,000 — only underlines how uncertain forecasts remain for 2026.

Trading desks are reported to be treating the internal slides as one input among many, not as an official firm forecast.

Related Reading

Public Takeaway

According to the coverage, Fundstrat has not issued a unified, public forecast that collapses the two views into one number.

Instead, clients and the market are being asked to weigh a downside scenario presented by the digital-assets team against a bullish macro scenario voiced by leadership.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Wall Street’s main indexes inched higher in choppy trading on Monday, with some heavyweight tech stocks rebounding from last week’s rout, while investors braced for a barrage of economic data that could set the course for interest rates.

Traders also got more clarity on candidates for the post of Federal Reserve chair next year as U.S. President Donald Trump, according to a report, said he narrowed his search to former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh or National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett.

Expectations for a dovish Fed chair have fueled hopes for interest rate cuts next year, even as inflation remains above the 2% target and persistent price pressures in other developed markets strengthen calls for a rate hike.

At 09:35 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 108.61 points, or 0.20%, to 48,557.21. The S&P 500 gained 22.44 points, or 0.33%, to 6,849.85, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 91.15 points, or 0.39%, to 23,286.32.

Of the 11 S&P 500 sectors, 10 were trading higher, with consumer discretionary up 1%, boosted by a 4.5% jump in Tesla.

AI chip giant Nvidia rose 1.1% and is set to snap a four-day losing streak, if gains hold. A broader index of chip stocks climbed 1.2%.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq had logged their steepest daily declines in more than three weeks on Friday, as worries of sticky inflation and debt-fueled AI investments pulled the indexes further away from record highs.These concerns have weighed on U.S. equities several times over the past three months, helping Europe’s STOXX 600 outperform the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 on a quarterly basis.

PLETHORA OF DATA THIS WEEK

The nonfarm payrolls figures for October and November are due on Tuesday. The October data was delayed by the government shutdown earlier this quarter.

Reports on business activity, weekly jobless claims and inflation, due later this week, will also be monitored as investors seek fresh clues on the economy’s resilience and the Fed’s next policy moves. Rate calls from Europe, the UK and Japan will add to a crowded central-bank calendar.

“With the Fed still appearing to be more focused on labor-market weakness than inflation, we’re likely facing a ‘bad news is good’ scenario for the jobs report,” said Chris Larkin, managing director, trading and investing at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.

A string of Fed officials are due to make remarks throughout the week, starting with Fed Governor Stephen Miran. The permanent voting member, as seen as on the dovish side, argued that current inflation does not reflect true supply-demand dynamics.

Among other stocks, ServiceNow slid 7.9% after a report said the cybersecurity company is in advanced talks to buy startup Armis.

IRobot slumped 68.5% after the Roomba vacuum-cleaner maker filed for bankruptcy protection.

Investors also monitored developments around plans to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 2.59-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.57-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

The S&P 500 posted 18 new 52-week highs and one new low, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 65 new highs and 42 new lows.

According to Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo, Strategy (MSTR) is unlikely to be forced to sell its Bitcoin in the next major market downturn. Strategy holds about 641,205 Bitcoin, a stake worth roughly $64 billion at current prices, according to Saylor Tracker.

Convertible Debt Gives Flexibility

Strategy’s debt is mostly in convertible senior notes that carry a holder put right dated Sept. 15, 2027. Based on Woo’s calculations, Strategy would need its stock to trade above $183 around that date to avoid selling Bitcoin to meet obligations.

That stock level lines up with a Bitcoin price near $91,502, assuming a multiple net-asset-value (mNAV) of 1. The company can settle conversions with cash, common stock, or a mix of both, and that choice gives management breathing room when markets wobble.

MSTR liquidation in the next bear market? I doubt it,

Here’s their debt, the date the debt is due and the price MSTR stock needs to exceed to prevent partial liquidation of their BTC treasury to pay the debt. Equivalent BTC price assumes mNAV 1.0 pic.twitter.com/AzVgecI7i2

— Willy Woo (@woonomic) November 4, 2025

Market Moves Put Pressure On Short Timescales

Strategy’s share price closed at $246.99, a seven-month low, down nearly 6.7% on the reported day. Bitcoin was trading at $102,004, down 9% over the past seven days, Coingecko data shows.

Based on reports, some market watchers say it would take a very prolonged and deep decline to force Strategy into selling its Bitcoin. One analyst put it this way: for the firm to liquidate, Bitcoin would need to underperform badly for a long stretch. Those words reflect the view that the company is insulated — but not immune.

Risk Of Partial Sales Looms

Willy Woo did add a warning. He suggested a partial sale could happen if Bitcoin fails to climb quickly during an expected 2028 bull run. Based on reports, that scenario would not be caused by a single bad week, but by a slow recovery that leaves Strategy’s stock weak when debt dates arrive.

Other public forecasts remain far more bullish: ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong have both mentioned targets as high as $1,000,000 for BTC by 2030.

BTCUSD trading at $101,849 on the 24-hour chart: TradingView

Debt Structure And Practical Choices

The convertible note setup means the company does not face an automatic margin call that forces an immediate sale. Conversions can be settled with stock, which shifts the pressure onto MSTR’s share price rather than Bitcoin alone.

However, that linkage also ties Strategy’s fate more tightly to investor appetite for a stock that mirrors Bitcoin’s movement.

Short Term Drops, Long Term Tests

Strategy looks broadly protected against a typical bear market. Yet the math shows a clear cut point: about $1 billion in debt comes due by the holder put date mentioned above.

If Bitcoin and MSTR equity both underperform for an extended period, adjustments may be needed. For now, major analysts say liquidation is unlikely in the next downturn, but they also flag 2028 as a critical year for whether any sales become necessary.

Featured image from Outside Bozeman, chart from TradingView

Ethereum is under significant pressure as the broader crypto market enters a corrective phase. After reaching a new all-time high of around $4,950 on August 24, ETH has now shed more than 22% of its value, slipping below the psychological $4,000 level. The steep pullback has left many investors in difficult positions, with some of the largest players in the market also feeling the impact.

According to top analyst Maartunn, even BitMine, one of the largest institutional holders of Ethereum, has seen its ETH position dip below its on-chain cost basis. This marks a critical moment, as whales typically act as stabilizers during corrections, and their unrealized losses reflect the depth of current market stress.

Despite this downturn, some analysts argue that Ethereum’s retracement may represent a healthy reset after weeks of overheated momentum. Corrections of this scale are not unusual following parabolic rallies and often serve to shake out excess leverage before setting up for longer-term stability. Still, with sentiment fragile and selling pressure mounting, the coming days will be pivotal for ETH as it tests key support levels and investors closely monitor whale behavior for signs of renewed confidence.

BitMine’s ETH Play Falls Below Cost Basis

According to top analyst Maartunn, Ethereum’s correction has placed one of the market’s largest institutional holders under heavy pressure. BitMine’s ETH portfolio, valued at roughly $7.5 billion, has just dipped below its on-chain cost basis around the $4,000 level. This development underscores the severity of the recent downturn and highlights that even large-scale players are not immune to the pain of corrections.

Maartunn emphasizes that this stage of the market is less about timing the perfect entry or exit and more about endurance. As he put it, “It’s about who can hold their breath the longest.” The remark reflects a broader sentiment among analysts who view the current environment as a psychological test for both retail and institutional investors. With volatility high and sentiment deteriorating, the ability to withstand drawdowns may determine who ultimately benefits from the next phase of Ethereum’s cycle.

The outlook remains divided. Optimists argue that this is a necessary pullback before Ethereum gears up for a massive leg higher, supported by growing institutional adoption and strong long-term fundamentals. On the other hand, cautious voices warn of a deeper correction, noting that breaking below critical support levels could trigger further downside.

The coming weeks will likely prove decisive. If ETH can stabilize above the $3,800–$4,000 range, confidence may return quickly. However, if selling pressure intensifies, the market could face an extended period of uncertainty before momentum rebuilds.