Poll – LSD News

As GOP weighs Obamacare cuts, the party’s constituents are more likely to use marketplace coverage, poll finds

LSD News Szerkesztőség — Tue, 10 Jun 2025 14:22:57 +0000

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota), from left, Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyoming) and Senator Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) exit the West Wing of the White House on June 4, 2025. The Senate has begun deliberations over President Donald Trump’s massive “Big Beautiful Bill” that narrowly passed the House on May 22, with several Republican senators expressing concerns over its cost as well as cuts to Medicaid and clean energy tax credits.

Photographer: Eric Lee/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Republicans on Capitol Hill are weighing legislation that’s estimated to cut billions of dollars of funding for the Affordable Care Act and cause millions of people to lose their health insurance. Many of their constituents may not be happy about it, polling suggests.

Nearly half, 45%, of adults enrolled in a health plan offered through the ACA insurance marketplace identify as Republicans, according to a new survey by KFF, a nonpartisan group that conducts health policy research.

(More than three-quarters of those Republican ACA users identify as “MAGA” Republicans. Those MAGA Republicans represent 31% of ACA purchasers overall.)

Meanwhile, 35% of Democrats get their health insurance through the ACA, KFF found.

Republicans in the House of Representatives passed a multitrillion-dollar tax and spending package in May estimated to cut about $900 billion from health programs like Medicaid and the ACA, which is also known as Obamacare.

Senate Republicans are now considering the measure, which contains many of President Donald Trump’s domestic policy priorities. Republicans are trying to pass the megabill by the Fourth of July.

If the GOP enacts the legislation as written and doesn’t extend tax credits that lower monthly ACA health premiums, about 15 million people would lose health insurance, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

“A large constituency of Republicans using the programs are potentially facing cuts,” said Audrey Kearney, a senior survey analyst for KFF’s public opinion and survey research program.

The survey was conducted May 5 to 26 among a nationally representative sample of 2,539 U.S. adults, including 247 who have purchased their own health coverage.

Republicans more likely to be self-employed

Health plans offered via the ACA exchanges are primarily for Americans who don’t have coverage through their jobs or via a public program such as Medicare or Medicaid, experts said.

The self-employed fall into this coverage gap — and self-employed Americans tend to lean right, a likely reason more Republicans seem to be enrolled in ACA health plans relative to Democrats, Kearney said.

“Republicans are more likely to be entrepreneurs than Democrats,” according to a 2023 paper published by researchers at Columbia University, the University of California, San Diego, and the University of Alberta.

About 5.5% of Republicans become entrepreneurs, while that’s true of 3.7% of Democrats, they found.

Many red-leaning states didn’t expand Medicaid

The Affordable Care Act also expanded Medicaid coverage to more households.

However, 10 states haven’t adopted the expansion: Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kansas, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Wisconsin and Wyoming. All voted for Trump in the 2024 presidential election.

Republicans are “more likely to live in nonexpansion states,” John Graves, a professor of health policy and medicine at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, wrote in an email.

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Here’s why this matters for ACA enrollment: “In the non-expansion states, there’s a wider population eligible for the tax credits,” said Carolyn McClanahan, a physician and certified financial planner based in Jacksonville, Florida. She’s a member of the CNBC Financial Advisor Council.

In states that expanded Medicaid, nearly all adults with incomes up to 138% of the federal poverty line (about $22,000 for a one-person household in 2025) are eligible for Medicaid.

In states that didn’t expand Medicaid, a broader population is eligible for subsidies to make ACA health plans less expensive, Graves said. The subsidized exchanges are available for people between 100% and 138% of the federal poverty line, among others.

“Given the heavy subsidies in that income range, and large amount of otherwise uninsured people, that would suggest more GOP-identifying people with low incomes would go the (subsidized) exchange route,” Graves wrote.

The Affordable Care Act has been vilified by Republicans since passage during President Barack Obama’s tenure. However, provisions within the law — such as creation of the ACA marketplaces, coverage for those with preexisting conditions and the ability to stay on parents’ health plan until age 26 — have broad appeal, said KFF’s Kearney.

As of 2023, nearly 1 in 7 U.S. residents had enrolled in an ACA marketplace plan at some point since 2014, the year in which states rolled out marketplace plans, according to a 2024 report from the U.S. Department of the Treasury.

“Our polling going back years has shown that when you ask about favorability of the ACA itself, Republicans view it as pretty unfavorable,” she said. “However, the actual provisions in it are very popular, and are popular among Republicans.”

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South Koreas liberal opposition candidate Lee is expected to win election, exit poll shows

LSD News Szerkesztőség — Tue, 03 Jun 2025 23:35:48 +0000

South Korea’s liberal opposition candidate Lee Jae-myung was expected to win an early presidential election on Tuesday, vote counts and media projections suggested.

The victory would cap months of political turmoil triggered by the stunning, but brief imposition of martial law by the now ousted conservative leader Yoon Suk Yeol.

It was unclear whether Lee’s election would cause any major, immediate shift in South Korea’s foreign policy. Lee, previously accused by critics of tilting toward China and North Korea and away from the U.S. and Japan, has repeatedly stressed South Korea’s alliance with the U.S. as the foundation of its foreign policy.

The toughest external challenges awaiting a new president are U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policy and North Korea’s advancing nuclear program. But experts say whoever becomes president in South Korea can’t do much to secure major progress in South Korea’s favor on those issues.

With 73% of ballots counted as of 1 a.m. Wednesday, Lee, the Democratic Party candidate, led with more than 48% of the votes, trailed by main conservative People Power Party candidate Kim Moon Soo with 42.9%. South Korea’s major media outlets were analyzing that Lee’s victory was certain.

The exit poll by South Korea’s three major television stations — KBS, MBC and SBS — earlier showed Lee projected to obtain 51.7% of total votes cast, beating Kim with 39.3%. Preelection surveys suggested Lee appeared headed for an easy win, riding on deep public frustration over the conservatives in the wake of Yoon’s martial law debacle that plunged South Korea into political turmoil.

“With the vote counting still underway, it’s premature to say anything definitively, but if the results stand as they are now, I pay my respects to the great decision of our people,” Lee said outside his apartment in Incheon, just west of Seoul, as his supporters shouted his name.

Hundreds of Lee supporters separately gathered outside the National Assembly in Seoul, waving Korean flags and singing.

Nearly 80% of the country’s 44.4 million eligible voters cast ballots, according to an interim tally. That’s one of the highest turnouts for a presidential election in South Korea, reflecting public eagerness to move past the political turmoil.

The winning candidate will immediately be sworn in as president Wednesday for a single, full term of five years without the typical two-month transition period.

Pragmatic diplomacy

Lee, who served as governor of Gyeonggi province and mayor of Seongnam city, has been a highly divisive figure in politics for years.

As a former child laborer known for his inspirational rags-to-riches story, Lee came to fame through biting criticism of the country’s conservative establishment and calls to build a more assertive South Korea in foreign policy. That rhetoric has given him an image as someone who can institute sweeping reforms and fix the country’s deep-seated economic inequality and corruption.

His critics view him as a dangerous populist who relies on political division and backpedals on promises too easily.

On foreign policy, Lee has has steadfastly vowed to pursue pragmatic diplomacy. He has promised to solidify a trilateral Seoul-Washington-Tokyo partnership, a stance that isn’t much different from the position held by South Korea’s conservatives.

He said he would pursue better ties with North Korea but acknowledged that it would be “very difficult” to realize a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un anytime soon. This signals Lee won’t likely initiate any drastic steps meant to improve relations with North Korea.

Experts say there aren’t many diplomatic options for South Korea as it tries to address Trump’s tariff hikes and calls for South Korea to pay more for the cost of the U.S. military presence, as well as North Korea’s headlong pursuit of nuclear weapons. Experts say that has made both Lee and Kim Moon Soo avoid unveiling ambitious foreign policy goals.

Paik Wooyeal, a professor at Seoul’s Yonsei University, said foreign policy strategists for Lee understand there isn’t much South Korea can do to bring about a denuclearization of North Korea. Paik said Lee also doesn’t share the Korean nationalistic zeal held by ex-liberal President Moon Jae-in, who met Kim Jong Un three times during his 2017-22 term.

Impact of tariff hikes

Lee’s government still could become engaged in “a little bit of friction” with the Trump administration, while a Kim Moon Soo government, which prioritizes relations with Washington, would likely offer more concessions to the U.S., said Chung Jin-young, a former dean of the Graduate School of Pan-Pacific International Studies at South Korea’s Kyung Hee University.

Chung predicted Lee won’t be able to pursue overly drastic steps on foreign policy and security, given the country’s foreign exchange and financial markets are vulnerable to such changes.

Lee has preached patience over Trump’s tariff policy, arguing it would be a mistake to rush negotiations in pursuit of an early agreement with Washington. Kim Moon Soo has said he would meet with Trump as soon as possible.

On Monday, South Korean trade officials held an emergency meeting to discuss a response to Trump’s announcement that the U.S. will raise tariffs on steel and aluminum products to 50% beginning Wednesday. South Korea’s central bank last week sharply lowered its 2025 growth outlook to 0.8%, citing the potential impact of Trump’s tariff hikes and weak domestic demand worsened by the political turmoil of past months.

Healing domestic divide

The election serves as another defining moment in the country’s resilient democracy, but observers worry a domestic divide worsened after Yoon’s martial law stunt is far from over and could pose a big political burden on the new president.

The past six months saw large crowds of people rallying in the streets to either denounce or support Yoon, while a leadership vacuum caused by Yoon’s impeachment and ensuing formal dismissal rattled the country’s high-level diplomatic activities and financial markets.

Lee has promised to heal the national split, but his vow to thoroughly hold those involved in Yoon’s martial law stunt accountable has sparked concerns that he would use investigations to launch political retaliations against his opponents.

In a Facebook posting earlier Tuesday, Lee called for voters to “deliver a stern and resolute judgement” against the conservatives over martial law. In a campaign speech Monday, Lee claimed that a win by Kim Moon Soo would mean the “return of the rebellion forces, the destruction of democracy and the deprival of people’s human rights.”

Kim, a former labor minister under Yoon, said that a Lee win would allow him to wield excessive power.

Lee “is now trying to seize all power in South Korea,” Kim told one rally.

Source: AP

–Agencies

Election complaints surpass 2,500 ahead of Parliamentary Poll

LSD News Szerkesztőség — Sun, 10 Nov 2024 15:31:13 +0000

The number of complaints received by the Election Commission in relation to the upcoming 2024 Parliamentary Poll has further increased.

The Election Commission says that 232 more complaints have been received within yesterday (09).

Accordingly, a total of 2,580 election complaints have been reported in connection with the parliamentary election from September 26 to November 09, the Election Commission said.

Meanwhile, the Election Commission also says that 1,999 of the total number of complaints received have been resolved thus far.

The General Election is scheduled to be held on November 14.

Cross-Tabs: September 2024 Inquirer/Times/Siena Poll of the Pennsylvania Likely Electorate

LSD News Szerkesztőség — Thu, 19 Sep 2024 11:13:59 +0000

How These Polls Were Conducted

Here are the key things to know about these polls:

• Interviewers spoke with 2,437 likely voters from Sept. 11 to 16, 2024.

• Times/Siena polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. Overall, about 96 percent of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for these polls.

• Voters are selected for the survey from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For this poll, interviewers placed more than 240,000 calls to nearly 118,000 voters.

• To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups that are underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. You can see more information about the characteristics of our respondents and the weighted sample at the bottom of the page, under “Composition of the Sample.”

• The national poll’s margin of sampling error among likely voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The Pennsylvania poll’s margin of error among likely voters is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error. When computing the difference between two values — such as a candidate’s lead in a race — the margin of error is twice as large.

If you want to read more about how and why The Times/Siena Poll is conducted, you can see answers to frequently asked questions and submit your own questions here.

Full Methodology

The New York Times/Siena College poll of 2,437 registered voters nationwide, including polls of Pennsylvania and Philadelphia conducted in partnership with the Philadelphia Inquirer, was conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from Sept. 11 to 16, 2024.

The margin of sampling error for the national poll is plus or minus 3 percentage points for the likely electorate. For the Pennsylvania poll, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for the likely electorate. Among registered voters, the margin of error is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points nationally and plus or minus 3.6 percentage points in Pennsylvania.

The Pennsylvania and Philadelphia polls were funded by a grant from the Lenfest Institute for Journalism. The polls, which were designed and conducted independently from the institute, were weighted so that in the end, respondents in Philadelphia represent the proper proportion of the poll of Pennsylvania. Similarly, the national poll was weighted so that respondents from Pennsylvania represent the proper proportion of the country.

Sample

The survey is a response rate-adjusted stratified sample of registered voters on the L2 voter file. The sample was selected by The New York Times in multiple steps to account for differential telephone coverage, nonresponse and significant variation in the productivity of telephone numbers by state.

First, records were selected by state. In Pennsylvania, records were selected separately for the poll of Philadelphia and of the rest of the state To adjust for noncoverage bias, the L2 voter file was stratified by statehouse district, party, race, gender, marital status, household size, turnout history, age and home ownership. The proportion of registrants with a telephone number and the mean expected response rate were calculated for each stratum. The mean expected response rate was based on a model of unit nonresponse in prior Times/Siena surveys. The initial selection weight was equal to the reciprocal of a stratum’s mean telephone coverage and modeled response rate. For respondents with multiple telephone numbers on the L2 file, the number with the highest modeled response rate was selected.

Second, state records were selected for the national sample. The number of records selected by state was based on a model of unit nonresponse in prior Times/Siena national surveys as a function of state, telephone number quality and other demographic and political characteristics. The state’s share of records was equal to the reciprocal of the mean response rate of the state’s records, divided by the national sum of the weights.

Fielding

The sample was stratified according to political party, race and region and fielded by the Siena College Research Institute, with additional field work by ReconMR, the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida, the Institute of Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College and the Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at Winthrop University in South Carolina. Interviewers asked for the person named on the voter file and ended the interview if the intended respondent was not available. Overall, across all three samples, 96 percent of respondents were reached on a cellular telephone.

The instrument was translated into Spanish by ReconMR. Bilingual interviewers began the interview in English and were instructed to follow the lead of the respondent in determining whether to conduct the survey in English or Spanish. Monolingual Spanish-speaking respondents who were initially contacted by English-speaking interviewers were recontacted by Spanish-speaking interviewers. Overall, across all three samples, 12 percent of interviews among self-reported Hispanics were conducted in Spanish, including 15 percent of weighted interviews.

An interview was determined to be complete for the purposes of inclusion in the ballot test question if the respondent did not drop out of the survey by the end of the two self-reported variables used in weighting — age and education — and answered at least one of the age, education or presidential election ballot test questions.

Weighting — registered voters

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the sample was adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, each poll was weighted to match voter file-based parameters for the characteristics of registered voters.

The following targets were used:

• Party (party registration if available in the state, else classification based on participation in partisan primaries if available in the state, else classification based on a model of vote choice in prior Times/Siena polls) by a classification of how strongly partisan the respondent is based on a model of vote choice in prior Times/Siena polls

• Age (Self-reported age, or voter file age if the respondent refuses) by gender (L2)

• Race or ethnicity (L2 model)

• Education (four categories of self-reported education level, weighted to match NYT-based targets derived from Times/Siena polls, census data and the L2 voter file)

• White/non-white race by college or non-college educational attainment (L2 model of race weighted to match NYT-based targets for self-reported education)

• Marital status (L2 model)

• Home ownership (L2 model)

• Turnout history (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• National region, if part of the national sample (NYT classifications by state)

• Method of voting in the 2020 elections, if part of the national sample (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Metropolitan status, if part of the national sample (2013 NCHS Urban-Rural Classification Scheme for Counties)

• Census tract educational attainment, if part of the national sample

• State region, if part of the Pennsylvania sample

• Record of requesting an absentee ballot for the 2024 general election, if part of the Pennsylvania or Philadelphia samples

Third, the sums of the weights of the polls were balanced so that respondents in Philadelphia represented the proper proportion of the Pennsylvania poll and respondents in Pennsylvania represented the proper proportion of the national poll.

Finally, the sample of respondents who completed all questions in the survey was weighted identically, as well as to the result for the general election horse race question (including leaners) on the full sample.

Weighting — likely electorate

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the samples were adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the first-stage weight was adjusted to account for the probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election, based on a model of turnout in the 2020 election.

Third, the sample was weighted to match targets for the composition of the likely electorate. The targets for the composition of the likely electorate were derived by aggregating the individual-level turnout estimates described in the previous step for registrants on the L2 voter file. The categories used in weighting were the same as those previously mentioned for registered voters.

Fourth, the initial likely electorate weight was adjusted to incorporate self-reported intention to vote. Four-fifths of the final probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election was based on their ex ante modeled turnout score and one-fifth based on their self-reported intentions, based on prior Times/Siena polls, including a penalty to account for the tendency of survey respondents to turn out at higher rates than nonrespondents. The final likely electorate weight was equal to the modeled electorate rake weight, multiplied by the final turnout probability and divided by the ex ante modeled turnout probability.

Fifth, the sums of the weights of the polls were balanced so that respondents in Philadelphia represented the proper proportion of the Pennsylvania poll and respondents in Pennsylvania represented the proper proportion of the national poll.

The margin of error accounts for the survey’s design effect, a measure of the loss of statistical power due to survey design and weighting.

For the national poll, the design effect is 2.3 for the likely electorate and 2.05 for registered voters. The margin of error for the sample of respondents who completed the entire survey is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points for the likely electorate, including a design effect of 2.33, and plus or minus 3.2 percentage points for registered voters, including a design effect of 2.1.

For the Pennsylvania poll, the design effect for the full sample is 1.60 for the likely electorate and 1.51 for registered voters. The margin of error for the sample of respondents who completed the entire survey is plus or minus 4.3 percentage points for the likely electorate, including a design effect of 1.62, and plus or minus 4.1 percentage points among registered voters, including a design effect of 1.54.

Historically, The Times/Siena Poll’s error at the 95th percentile has been plus or minus 5.1 percentage points in surveys taken over the final three weeks before an election. Real-world error includes sources of error beyond sampling error, such as nonresponse bias, coverage error, late shifts among undecided voters and error in estimating the composition of the electorate.

Cross-Tabs: September 2024 Times/Siena Poll of Registered Voters Nationwide

LSD News Szerkesztőség — Sun, 08 Sep 2024 14:50:03 +0000

How This Poll Was Conducted

Here are the key things to know about this Times/Siena poll:

• Interviewers spoke with 1,695 registered voters across the country from Sept. 3 to 6, 2024.

• Times/Siena polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. About 96 percent of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for this poll.

• The poll’s margin of sampling error among likely voters is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error. When computing the difference between two values — such as a candidate’s lead in a race — the margin of error is twice as large.

If you want to read more about how and why The Times/Siena Poll is conducted, you can see answers to frequently asked questions and submit your own questions here.

Full Methodology

The New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,695 registered voters nationwide, including 1,374 who completed the full survey, was conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from Sept. 3 to 6, 2024. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points for the likely electorate and plus or minus 2.6 percentage points for registered voters. Among those who completed the full survey, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points for the likely electorate and plus or minus 3.0 percentage points for registered voters.

Sample

First, records were selected by state. To adjust for noncoverage bias, the L2 voter file was stratified by statehouse district, party, race, gender, marital status, household size, turnout history, age and home ownership. The proportion of registrants with a telephone number and the mean expected response rate were calculated for each stratum. The mean expected response rate was based on a model of unit nonresponse in prior Times/Siena surveys. The initial selection weight was equal to the reciprocal of a stratum’s mean telephone coverage and modeled response rate. For respondents with multiple telephone numbers on the L2 file, the number with the highest modeled response rate was selected.

Fielding

The sample was stratified according to political party, race and region and fielded by the Siena College Research Institute, with additional field work by ReconMR and the Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at Winthrop University in South Carolina. Interviewers asked for the person named on the voter file and ended the interview if the intended respondent was not available. Overall, 96 percent of respondents were reached on a cellular telephone.

The instrument was translated into Spanish by ReconMR. Bilingual interviewers began the interview in English and were instructed to follow the lead of the respondent in determining whether to conduct the survey in English or Spanish. Monolingual Spanish-speaking respondents who were initially contacted by English-speaking interviewers were recontacted by Spanish-speaking interviewers. Overall, 15 percent of interviews among self-reported Hispanics were conducted in Spanish, including 23 percent of weighted interviews.

Weighting — registered voters

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the sample was adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the sample was weighted to match voter file-based parameters for the characteristics of registered voters.

The following targets were used:

• Party (party registration if available in the state, else classification based on participation in partisan primaries if available in the state, else classification based on a model of vote choice in prior Times/Siena polls) by whether the respondent’s race is modeled as white or nonwhite (L2 model)

• Age (Self-reported age, or voter file age if the respondent refuses) by gender (L2)

• Race or ethnicity (L2 model)

• Education (four categories of self-reported education level, weighted to match NYT-based targets derived from Times/Siena polls, census data and the L2 voter file)

• White/non-white race by college or non-college educational attainment (L2 model of race weighted to match NYT-based targets for self-reported education)

• Marital status (L2 model)

• Home ownership (L2 model)

• National region (NYT classifications by state)

• Turnout history (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Method of voting in the 2020 elections (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Metropolitan status (2013 NCHS Urban-Rural Classification Scheme for Counties)

• Census tract educational attainment

Weighting — likely electorate

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the samples were adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the first-stage weight was adjusted to account for the probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election, based on a model of turnout in the 2020 election.

The margin of error accounts for the survey’s design effect, a measure of the loss of statistical power due to survey design and weighting. The design effect for the full sample is 1.38 for the likely electorate and 1.21 for registered voters. The design effect for the sample of completed interviews is 1.43 for the likely electorate and 1.26 for registered voters.

Crypto Holders Disproportionately Favor Trump for U.S. President, New Academic Poll Shows

LSD News Szerkesztőség — Sun, 01 Sep 2024 18:42:18 +0000

“Trump has been reaching out to the crypto community, and it seems to have paid off,” said Dan Cassino, professor of Government and Politics at Fairleigh Dickinson and executive director of the poll, in a Friday press release. “It might be easy to dismiss them as insignificant, but I don’t think people realize exactly how widespread crypto ownership is.”

Pavithra Wanniarachchi decides to support Ranil at prez poll

LSD News Szerkesztőség — Thu, 08 Aug 2024 07:30:14 +0000

Minister Pavithra Wanniarachchi has decided to support President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who is contesting the upcoming Presidential Election as an independent candidate. MORE..

Trump Widens Lead After Biden’s Debate Debacle, Times/Siena Poll Finds

LSD News Szerkesztőség — Wed, 03 Jul 2024 20:03:27 +0000

Donald J. Trump’s lead in the 2024 presidential race has widened after President Biden’s fumbling debate performance last week, as concerns that Mr. Biden is too old to govern effectively rose to new heights among Democrats and independent voters, a new poll from The New York Times and Siena College showed.

Mr. Trump now leads Mr. Biden 49 percent to 43 percent among likely voters nationally, a three-point swing toward the Republican from just a week earlier, before the debate. It is the largest lead Mr. Trump has recorded in a Times/Siena poll since 2015. Mr. Trump leads by even more among registered voters, 49 percent to 41 percent.

Doubts about Mr. Biden’s age and acuity are widespread and growing. A majority of every demographic, geographic and ideological group in the poll — including Black voters and those who said they will still be voting for him — believe Mr. Biden, 81, is too old to be effective.

Overall, 74 percent of voters view him as too old for the job, up five percentage points since the debate. Concerns about Mr. Biden’s age have spiked eight percentage points among Democrats in the week since the debate, to 59 percent. The share of independent voters who said they felt that way rose to 79 percent, nearly matching the Republican view of the president.

The poll offers early empirical evidence of what many Democrats have feared: That Mr. Biden’s faltering debate performance has further imperiled his chances against Mr. Trump this fall. Some Democratic lawmakers and donors are raising questions about Mr. Biden’s fitness following his struggles to finish his thoughts or articulate a vision during the debate, and they are demanding that Mr. Biden prove for a skeptical public that he is capable of serving until he is 86.

There were a couple of faint glimmers of good news for Mr. Biden in the poll.

One was that he narrowed Mr. Trump’s edge among independent voters, even if that gain was more than offset by his erosion among Democrats and Mr. Trump’s improvement among Republicans. Another was that the share of Democratic voters who think Mr. Biden should no longer be the nominee ticked up, but by far less than the rising Democratic concern about his age. The first calls from Capitol Hill lawmakers for him to step aside came on Tuesday.

Overall, more voters thought Mr. Biden should remain the Democratic nominee — but only because more Republicans, perhaps emboldened after the debate, said they now want him as their opponent.

“If this was a boxing match, it would have been a T.K.O. in the first round — please somebody stop this already,” George Lee, a 44-year-old health care adviser in Brooklyn, said of watching Mr. Biden suffer rhetorical punch after punch at the debate. “He doesn’t have his wits about him. That’s clear from last week. They’ve been saying it for a long time, but the world saw it.”

Mr. Lee, a Democrat, said he wished Mr. Biden would step aside but that he would still vote for him to stop Mr. Trump. He fretted, “There’s no way he’s going to win now.”

The poll also showed the depth of concern for Mr. Biden’s fitness. Half of voters go much further than thinking Mr. Biden is too old to be effective: A full 50 percent agree that his “age is such a problem that he is not capable of handling the job of president,” including 55 percent of independent voters.

Voters have some concern about Mr. Trump’s age, too, but far less than for Mr. Biden’s.

After the debate, 42 percent of voters view Mr. Trump as too old for the job, an increase of three points from a week prior that was driven heavily by Democrats. Only 19 percent of voters said Mr. Trump was so old he was not capable of handling the job.

One of the more interesting findings in the poll was that men accounted for virtually all of Mr. Trump’s post-debate gains.

Mr. Trump has made appeals to machismo a centerpiece of his 2024 campaign, making his first public appearance after his felony conviction related to paying hush money to a porn star a visit to a U.F.C. fight, for instance.

In the pre-debate poll, Mr. Trump had led among likely male voters by 12 percentage points. After the debate, his lead among men ballooned to 23 points. That movement was particularly concentrated among younger men and men without college degrees.

Mr. Biden’s five-point edge among likely women voters before the debate actually ticked up slightly, to eight points.

Those who said they had watched the CNN debate, which was held in Atlanta, said Mr. Trump outperformed Mr. Biden, 60 percent to 22 percent.

Only 16 percent of voters said Mr. Biden did well, and a meager 3 percent said he did very well. In an era of intense partisanship, even Democrats felt that Mr. Biden had flopped.

About one-third of Democrats said Mr. Biden did well compared to 89 percent of Republicans who said the same of Mr. Trump.

The debate was watched live by more than 50 million Americans, and 59 percent of voters said they had tuned in. Only 10 percent said they had not heard about the debate, 15 percent said they had heard about it and another 16 percent said they had watched clips afterward.

It was that last cohort, the clip-watchers, whose view of Mr. Biden’s age problem was the most acute, perhaps because some of Mr. Biden’s most incoherent answers quickly went viral.

Around 80 percent of those who watched clips or heard about the debate but did not watch live thought Mr. Biden was too old. Voters who watched the debate live or did not watch at all were in the low 70 percentage range.

The Times/Siena survey before the debate had appeared more favorable to Mr. Trump than the national average of polls at the time. One explanation had been that Republicans had been more responsive than Democrats when called for that survey, perhaps a sign of enthusiasm after Mr. Trump’s conviction. A higher response rate for a particular group is not necessarily an indicator of an inaccurate result. But even so, in this new survey, response rates between the parties returned to their usual level of parity.

The Biden campaign, in an internal staff memo on Wednesday, braced aides for potential poor polling and the Times/Siena poll, in particular.

“Polls are a snapshot in time and we should all expect them to continue to fluctuate,” wrote Julie Chavez Rodriguez, the campaign manager, and Jen O’Malley Dillon, the campaign chair. They said internal metrics showed the race within the margin of error. The campaign had previously released a post-debate poll showing Mr. Biden trailing Mr. Trump, but the campaign said the margin had not changed since before the debate.

In the Times/Siena poll, when voters were asked about possible third-party and independent candidates, Mr. Trump’s lead expanded by two percentage points in the last week. Mr. Trump was ahead of Mr. Biden 42 percent to 37 percent after the debate when the survey included six potential candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who earned 8 percent support. Mr. Trump had led 40 percent to 37 percent before the debate.

The 2024 race pits two nominees who are historically unpopular against each other, and the unfavorable ratings of both candidates rose slightly after the debate. Mr. Biden’s rose to 61 percent, and Mr. Trump’s to 55 percent.

The Biden campaign had hoped that the debate — and seeing Mr. Trump onstage in a way he hasn’t been seen since he occupied the White House — would pull some of the Democratic voters who have been reluctant to support Mr. Biden in 2024 back into the fold.

The poll, which like all others is a snapshot in time, did not show any Democratic consolidation.

Mr. Biden’s standing in the poll did improve among Black voters, but it eroded among Hispanic voters, although the sample size of both demographic groups was relatively small in the survey.

The poll also revealed a deep generational rift inside the Democratic Party.

When it comes to Mr. Biden’s fitness for another term, 77 percent of Democrats under 45 think the president is too old to be effective, while only 49 percent of those older than 45 agree.

Similarly, 56 percent of Democrats under 45 approve of Mr. Biden’s job, while 90 percent of Democrats older than that rated him positively.

The debate did succeed in another Biden goal: Getting voters to tune into the race. The share of voters paying a lot of attention to the campaign was jolted up 9 percentage points in the wake of the much-discussed debate.

More voters said in the poll that re-electing Mr. Biden in November would be a risky choice for the country than those who said it of Mr. Trump. In the survey, 63 percent of voters said Mr. Biden was a risky choice, compared to 56 percent who said Mr. Trump was risky.

Roughly one in four Democrats said Mr. Biden was a risky choice rather than a safe one; they were nearly twice as likely to think of Mr. Biden as risky as Republicans were to view Mr. Trump that way.

Voters had viewed the candidates as equally risky back in April.

Mr. Biden faces other headwinds beyond his age.

The economy and inflation were the top issues for voters in the Times/Siena surveys both before and after the debate, and Mr. Trump is winning voters who prioritize those issues overwhelmingly.

Also, by a wide margin, voters look back more fondly on Mr. Trump’s time in office than Mr. Biden’s. Just 34 percent said Mr. Biden made the country better, while 47 percent said the same about Mr. Trump’s tenure. And for almost every demographic group, more voters said Mr. Biden had made the country worse rather than better. Black voters were the biggest exception.

A majority of voters, 50 percent to 39 percent, said Mr. Trump would best handle whatever issue they felt was the most important one facing the country.

Ruth Igielnik, Nicholas Nehamas and Camille Baker contributed reporting.

Here are the key things to know about this Times/Siena poll:

We spoke with 1,532 registered voters, from June 28 to July 2, 2024.

Our polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. About 93 percent of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for this poll. You can see the exact questions that were asked and the order in which they were asked here.

Voters are selected for the survey from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For this poll, we placed more than 190,000 calls to more than 113,000 voters.

To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups that are underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. You can see more information about the characteristics of our respondents and the weighted sample on the methodology page, under “Composition of the Sample.”

The poll’s margin of sampling error among registered voters is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error. When computing the difference between two values — such as a candidate’s lead in a race — the margin of error is twice as large.

You can see full results and a detailed methodology here. If you want to read more about how and why we conduct our polls, you can see answers to frequently asked questions and submit your own questions here.

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