The expiration effectively ends for now a brief period where the administration eased sanctions on some Russian oil, enabling purchases that would otherwise be barred. The Trump administration issued an initial waiver in March and a second after the first expired in April — both applying only to a subset of Russian oil that had already been loaded onto tankers. 

The waivers have been controversial, especially with European allies who see sanctions as essential to starving Russia of crude revenue and depriving Moscow funding for its war in Ukraine. Critics say the sanctions relief has served to enrich Moscow — even though it’s been limited to waterborne oil — especially as crude prices surge. 

But some countries, including India and Indonesia, had lobbied the Trump administration for extended sanctions waivers, as the Iran war and the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz deprive global markets of millions of barrels of crude daily. 

The Trump administration has also pivoted on the issue, responding to entreaties from countries heavily reliant on crude imports. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in April initially said the US would not renew the sanctions waiver allowing purchases of some Russian crude before ultimately issuing a new authorization two days later. 

He told a Senate panel the shift came after “more than 10 of the most vulnerable and poorest countries in terms of energy” approached him seeking an extension. Bessent has called the previous moves necessary to promote stability in global energy markets amid the Middle East conflict. 

Just as in April, lobbying from Asian allies and more tightness in the oil market could still prompt the administration to to issue a new waiver later.  

The administration allowed a separate temporary waiver enabling purchases of some Iranian crude to expire in April.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, has surged since the Iran war began, driving higher prices for gasoline, diesel and other products made from it. Supply disruptions tied to Hormuz also have sent some buyers scrambling for new cargoes, including from the US. 

The US government has taken several other steps to tame impacts from the energy shock, which the International Energy Agency has called the biggest supply disruption in the history of the oil market. The Trump administration is allowing foreign vessels to carry crude and other commodities between American ports through mid-August. It’s also temporarily waived some domestic fuel specifications.

Shares of oil marketing companies extended losses on Friday, shrugging off the retail fuel price hike of ₹3 per litre, as this increase was insufficient to offset losses from elevated crude levels. Shares of Bharat Petroleum fell 3.6%, Hindustan Petroleum declined 2.9%, and Indian Oil Corporation dipped 4.1% on Friday. The Nifty and Sensex ended 0.2% lower.

“The recent ₹3 hike offers only partial relief, and their margins are likely to remain under pressure until geopolitical tensions ease and crude prices moderate,” said Sonam Srivastava, founder and fund manager at Wright Research PMS. “A fuel price increase of nearly ₹20 per litre would be required to fully offset these losses, which appears unlikely at this stage,” she said.

Brent crude futures advanced 2.5% to $108.37 on Friday evening. Oil prices have rallied 53% since the start of the West Asia conflict.

At current crude prices, oil marketing companies are incurring losses of up to ₹1,200 crore per day on petrol, diesel and LPG, said Srivastava. Shares of these OMCs have been under pressure this year, as oil prices soared from $60-70 to over $100 in a span of a few days since the start of the US-Iran conflict at the end of February.

Hindustan Petroleum, Bharat Petroleum, and Indian Oil Corporation have declined 19-27% this year, compared to Nifty’s 9.6% fall. “Given the losses currently being incurred by oil marketing companies, the market was expecting a fuel price hike of 10-15%, and the increase announced has fallen short of expectations,” said Anita Gandhi, head of institutional broking at Arihant Capital. “There is now anticipation of another price revision over the next 15 days, which will determine the near-term direction for these stocks.”

More fuel hikes may be on the way. “We believe the government could raise fuel prices by up to ₹30 per litre over the coming months,” said Apurva Sheth, head of research at Samco Securities.Sheth said investors can wait for better entry points in these stocks.

Others are more wary of this sector.

Divam Sharma, co-founder and fund manager at Green Portfolio PMS, said the government is currently focusing on managing consumer price inflation rather than maintaining the OMC margins.

“We would want to stay away from OMCs till we see Brent crude cooling to below $90,” he said.

Gandhi of Arihant said that it is advisable that investors should remain on the sidelines and await greater clarity before taking fresh positions in OMCs. “Moreover, there is no clarity with respect to the end of the war, which means oil prices can remain elevated in the near term,” she said.

In an address earlier this week, the prime minister said Indians should make arrangements to work from home and take more virtual meetings. If citizens must leave home, they should take public transportation, such as the bus or metro, or carpool if a private vehicle is necessary.

The prime minister also asked citizens to limit international travel and pause purchases to keep foreign currency in the country, and asked farmers to halve their fertilizer use, which requires oil to produce. Conserving oil and other resources is a patriotic duty as the war in Iran strains them, Modi said.

“Patriotism is not only about the willingness to sacrifice one’s life on the border. In these times, it is about living responsibly and fulfilling our duties to the nation in our daily lives,” Modi said Sunday during a speech in the southern city of Hyderabad, according to the BBC. 

Modi’s appeal to Indians to work from home is meant to reduce commuting in private vehicles, which are the dominant mode of transportation in India. In 2025, the country of 1.5 billion people registered 25 million new vehicles, 88% of which were private vehicles, either two-wheeled or cars, according to IMPRI, a startup research think tank. That’s compared to 16.3 million registered in the U.S. in 2025, according to Cox Automotive. 

The prime minister’s comments come as the war in Iran has slowed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 million barrels of oil passed daily before the war. This flow of oil has slowed to a trickle because of the conflict, and India may be one of the countries most at risk. 

The country imports 85% of the fuel it uses. About half of its crude imports and 60% of its liquefied natural gas imports must pass through the Strait of Hormuz. India spent nearly $175 billion on petroleum product imports, about 22% of its total imports, as of the financial year ended in March. 

Investors react to austerity

Modi’s austerity measures were not popular with investors, and the Indian stock market fell sharply on Monday. 

The BSE Sensex, which tracks the 30 largest companies listed on India’s oldest exchange in Bombay, closed down 1.70% on the day after Modi’s comments. The Nifty 50, which tracks the 50 largest companies across 13 sectors on the National Stock Exchange, closed down 1.49% Monday.

And yet, India is not the only country that is being affected by the Iran war. Asian countries, many of which rely more on Middle Eastern oil than those in other regions, have implemented austerity measures to cushion the impact of the Iranian oil shock. 

Vietnam has been urging private businesses to allow workers to work from home since March, but some countries have taken their efforts to conserve fuel even further. Several countries, such as the Philippines, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, have moved to implement a four-day workweek to reduce fuel use.

Despite a shaky ceasefire, the conflict between the U.S. and Iran is seemingly not close to ending. Trump said Monday the suspension of hostilities may end soon after he rejected Iran’s most recent counterproposal, calling it “a piece of garbage.”

“They think I’ll get tired, or get bored, or I’ll have some pressure,” Trump said Monday, according to CNN. “There’s no pressure at all. We’re going to have a complete victory.”

Oil prices surged roughly 6 percent on Monday as Iran intensified attacks on the United Arab Emirates and vessels in the Middle East Gulf over the past 24 hours, marking the most serious escalation since a U.S.-Iran ceasefire took effect in early April.

Brent futures rose $6.79, or 6.3 percent, to $114.96 per barrel at 12:54 p.m. EDT (1654 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $4.23, or 4.2 percent, to $106.17, News.Az reports, citing foreign media.

A South Korean ship was hit by an explosion in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday and Iranian drones caused a fire at a UAE oil port, as Tehran demonstrated its grip on Middle East oil after U.S. President Donald Trump said his Navy would open the strait.

The U.S. military said it destroyed six Iranian small boats and intercepted Iranian cruise missiles and drones fired by Tehran as the U.S. launched an operation to free up shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Admiral Brad Cooper, the head of Central Command, said on Monday.

Iranian military officials, meanwhile, denied that Iranian small boats were sunk.

About 20 percent of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies passed through the strait before the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran on February 28.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy issued a map that it said was expanding the areas controlled by Iran near the Strait of Hormuz to include the UAE’s ports of Fujairah and Khorfakkan as well as the coast of Umm Al Quwain emirate in the UAE, according to Iranian news agencies.

‘‘The path for prices remains skewed to the upside as long as flows through the strait remain restricted,’’ UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

Earlier in the day, the U.S. military said two U.S. merchant ships had made it through the strait, without saying when. Iran denied any crossings had taken place. 

Source: News.Az 

–Agencies