The markets traded with a negative bias through the week and ended lower after remaining under sustained pressure. Nifty oscillated in a 582-point range, marking a high at 23,733.70 and a low at 23,151.50 before settling near the lower end of this band. Volatility remained subdued despite the corrective undertone, with India VIX declining 2.47% to 15.79 during the week. As a result, the Nifty ended the week with a loss of 181.05 points (-0.77%).

The broader technical structure continues to remain at an important inflexion point. Nifty is presently trading below its 50-week and 100-week moving averages, while attempting to stabilise above a crucial support area near 23,000-23,100. This zone has emerged as a major line of defence for the markets, and options data also suggest that participants are likely to actively protect this area.

While the immediate downside appears cushioned by the 23,000-23,100 zone, any meaningful and sustained violation of this support area would inflict structural damage on the market and could trigger a fresh phase of weakness. On the upside, the index must reclaim and sustain above the 23,600-23,800 zone to improve the near-term outlook and pave the way for some recovery.

The coming week is likely to begin on a cautious note as markets continue to assess the strength of support near the lower end of the prevailing trading range. Immediate resistance levels are placed at 23,643 and 23,800, the former coinciding with the 20-week average. Supports come in at 23,000 and 22,800, with the 23,000-23,100 zone remaining the most critical area to monitor.

The weekly RSI stands at 39.25 and remains below the neutral 50 mark, reflecting a weak momentum setup. The RSI shows no meaningful bullish or bearish divergence relative to price and remains neutral. Weekly MACD stays below its signal line and continues to remain in negative territory.

A study of the pattern structure shows that Nifty continues to trade within a broad sideways trajectory that has governed price action over the past several quarters. The recent decline has brought the index close to the lower boundary of this formation, making the current levels technically important. While the long-term trend remains intact as long as the channel support holds, the index remains below its 50-week moving average at 24,901 and the 100-week moving average at 24,526, keeping the medium-term trend under pressure. The 200-week moving average at 22,087 continues to provide strong long-term support and reinforces the significance of the broader uptrend. Given the current setup, traders should avoid adopting an overly aggressive stance until the index either decisively reclaims overhead resistance levels or confirms support-led buying from the 23,000-23,100 zone. While this support area may continue to attract buying interest, the risk-reward equation does not yet favour indiscriminate accumulation. Fresh purchases should remain highly selective and stock-specific, with greater emphasis on relative strength and risk management. Protection of capital should remain a priority, especially if the index shows any sustained weakness below 23,000.

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), representing over 95% of the free-float market cap of allthe listed stocks.

The Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) shows that the Nifty MIDCAP100, Energy, Media, and Metal Indices are the only ones inside the leading quadrant. These groups are likely to relatively outperform the broader Nifty 500 Index.

The Nifty Pharma, PSE, and Infrastructure Indices are inside the weakening quadrant. They are likely to slow down on their relative performance, while isolated stock-specific performances cannot be ruled out.

The Nifty PSU Bank Index, Services Sector Index, IT, Financial Services, and Nifty Bank Index are seen languishing inside the lagging quadrant. These groups may relatively underperform the broader markets. The Nifty Auto Index is also inside the lagging quadrant; however, it is seen improving its relative momentum.

While Realty and the FMCG Index stay inside the improving quadrant, the FMCG Index is seen giving up on its relative momentum.

Important Note: RRGTM charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against the NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.

Nifty ended higher on Monday, continuing their winning streak to a third successive session. Markets were triggered by strong buying action in heavy weight sectors like financials, energy and auto.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities said Nifty has reclaimed both the 20EMA and the 50EMA today after spending several days below the 20EMA, indicating a strong sign of sustained recovery in market sentiment. “The bullish crossover in the RSI is further supporting the positive momentum in the market. In the short term, the trend is likely to remain strong, with the potential to move towards 24,200 and higher. On the lower end, support is placed at 23,800, which had acted as a resistance level in the recent past,” De added.

Here are 2 stocks to buy:

Buy Ram Ratna Wires at Rs 471 | Upside: 17%
Stop Loss: Rs 442
Target: Rs 550

Ram Ratna Wires has delivered a strong bullish breakout from a long-term ascending channel pattern, supported by sharp volume expansion and sustained buying momentum. The stock is trading comfortably above all key moving averages, indicating a strong trend continuation setup and improving market sentiment. Recent price action reflects aggressive accumulation as the stock surged past the 420 resistance zone and is now forming higher highs with strong follow-through buying. RSI remains above 70, signalling strong momentum and relative outperformance despite entering near-overbought territory.

Buy Tata Motors PV at Rs 374 | Upside: 10%
Stop Loss: Rs 353
Target: Rs 413

Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles has witnessed a strong breakout from a prolonged falling channel pattern, indicating a potential trend reversal on the daily chart. The stock has decisively crossed above the 20-day and 50-day EMAs and is now approaching the crucial 200-day EMA resistance near 371–373, reflecting improving bullish momentum. RSI has moved above 60, suggesting strengthening buying interest without entering extreme overbought territory. Volume activity has also improved during the recent upward move, supporting the breakout structure. Sustaining above 365 can trigger further upside towards 400 and 420 levels, while 353 remains a key support zone for maintaining the positive outlook.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

Emkay Global has retained a bullish long-term outlook on Indian equities despite rising geopolitical tensions and elevated crude oil prices, saying the Nifty could climb to 29,000 by March 2027 as domestic growth drivers remain intact.

In its latest India strategy report, the brokerage said India’s macroeconomic resilience, improving earnings outlook, and continued policy support are likely to help markets weather near-term global volatility.

The brokerage expects the Nifty to reach 29,000 by March next year based on a target valuation multiple of 19.2 times FY28 earnings. The report comes at a time when global markets are grappling with heightened uncertainty linked to the prolonged conflict in West Asia and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil shipping route.

Brent crude prices have remained elevated in the $105–110 per barrel range after the Strait of Hormuz remained shut for more than 11 weeks, according to the report.

Emkay warned that prolonged high oil prices could materially affect India’s economy, given the country’s dependence on imported energy. According to the brokerage’s scenario analysis, if Brent remains around $100/barrel, India’s current account deficit could widen to 2.4% of GDP from the earlier baseline estimate of 1.3%.

GDP growth could also moderate to 6.3% from the earlier expectation of 7%, while consumer inflation may rise to 4.6%. In a more severe scenario where crude prices surge to $130 per barrel, Emkay estimates India’s GDP growth could slow further to 5.5%, and inflation could rise to 5%.

Still, the brokerage believes the broader long-term growth story for Indian equities remains intact.”While global geopolitical developments and elevated crude prices may continue to create intermittent volatility, India’s structural growth drivers remain intact,” said Seshadri Sen, Head of Research and Strategist at Emkay Global.

“Earnings resilience, policy support, easing domestic inflationary pressures, and ongoing capex investments continue to provide a strong foundation for Indian equities,” Sen said.

He added that any sharp correction triggered by global concerns should be viewed as a long-term buying opportunity rather than a structural threat to India’s growth outlook.

Emkay said the March quarter earnings season has started on a relatively stable note despite global uncertainty. Among companies under the brokerage’s coverage universe that have reported results so far, 46% delivered earnings above expectations, while only 29% missed estimates.

The brokerage has retained its FY27 Nifty earnings per share estimate at Rs 1,230 and continues to expect nearly 13% earnings growth. The report noted that the Nifty is currently trading around 19.2 times FY27 forward earnings, close to its five-year average valuation.

Emkay believes markets are still under-pricing the earnings recovery expected during FY27 and FY28. The brokerage expects nearly 14% cumulative earnings growth over the next two financial years.

On the sectoral front, Emkay remains overweight on discretionary consumption, industrials, materials and real estate while staying underweight on financials, energy, healthcare, staples, telecom and technology in the near term.

The report also highlighted concerns around fuel under-recoveries for oil marketing companies.

According to Emkay, the recent Rs 3 per litre increase in fuel prices addresses only around 20% of the current under-recoveries, suggesting additional fuel price hikes may become necessary if crude prices remain elevated.

The brokerage described sustained high crude prices as a “four-way drag” on the economy because they simultaneously affect inflation, government finances, corporate profitability and household spending.

Despite the near-term pressures, Emkay said several domestic policy measures continue to support economic activity. These include income tax cuts, GST reductions and cumulative RBI rate cuts of around 125 basis points since February 2025.

The brokerage said these measures are expected to improve liquidity, support discretionary consumption and encourage private-sector investment. Government spending on railways, defence and infrastructure also continues to support economic activity and employment generation, according to the report.

Emkay further said the rupee may remain under pressure in the short term because of high crude prices and a stronger US dollar, though the Reserve Bank of India is likely to maintain a cautious policy stance to preserve macroeconomic stability.

The brokerage expects the rupee and bond markets to stabilise once geopolitical tensions ease and oil supply routes normalise. The report also pointed to improving trends in financial services sectors such as NBFCs and insurance.

According to Emkay, the NBFC sector has seen significant re-rating over the last few years due to better balance sheets, lower NPAs and stronger capital adequacy. It added that while the pace of outperformance versus banks may moderate, select NBFCs remain well-positioned to deliver healthy growth and profitability.

Nifty settled with gains after a Thursday pause, carrying the positive momentum that stayed with markets through the week. The index has been steadily moving higher from the 200-SMA on the hourly chart, confirming an improving environment for a bullish trend.

Decoding the charts, Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities said the RSI is in a bullish crossover on the daily timeframe and continues to rise, indicating strengthening momentum. “In the short term, the trend may remain positive. On the other hand, if no concrete truce deal is reached by the weekend, the market might react negatively. Immediate support is placed at 23,800, below which the index may decline towards lower levels. On the upside, the 24,300–24,350 zone is likely to act as a resistance area.”

Here are 2 stocks to buy:

Buy SBI at Rs 1,067 | Upside: 6%

Stop Loss: Rs 1,035

Target: Rs 1,120/1,130

State Bank of India is showing a strong rebound from key support with bullish momentum on weekly charts. Price remains above long-term moving averages, indicating trend strength. RSI is stable, suggesting room for upside. Traders can consider buying with a target of Rs 1,120 – Rs 1,130 and maintain a strict stop loss at Rs 1,035.(Kunal Kamble, Sr. Technical Research Analyst, Bonanza Portfolio)

Buy Bajaj Consumer Care at Rs 432 | Upside: 6%

Stop Loss: Rs 420

Target: Rs 455/460

Bajaj Consumer Care is witnessing a strong breakout above its key resistance zone with rising volumes, indicating bullish momentum on daily charts. Price is trading well above its long-term moving average, confirming trend strength, while RSI remains elevated, supporting further upside. Traders can consider buying with a target of Rs 455 – Rs 460 (5–6% upside) and maintain a strict stop loss at Rs 420.

(Kunal Kamble, Sr. Technical Research Analyst, Bonanza Portfolio)

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

Nifty ended the week with gains of 0.4%, supported by buying in financials and metals. As domestic markets resume trading on Monday, a host of key events lined up during the week are likely to shape investor sentiment.

The 50-stock index rose 117 points, or 0.46%, on Friday to close at 25,571.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said the Nifty faces resistance at the 21-EMA on the daily chart despite Friday’s positive close. He added that the RSI remains in a bearish crossover, signalling weak underlying momentum.

“India VIX remained volatile, keeping market participants on edge. In the coming days, volatility is likely to stay elevated, with the index expected to oscillate in the 25,300-25,800 range. Immediate support is placed at 25,500, while resistance is seen at 25,650,” De said.

Factors likely to steer the market on Monday

1) Trump tariffs

While European and US markets ended higher on Friday, cheering the US Supreme Court’s decision to strike down President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, global markets will now track developments following the court order.

The apex court’s ruling was initially viewed as positive for equities. However, soon after the decision, Trump signed fresh orders imposing a 10% tariff on imports from all countries, later raising it to 15%, saying the move would be “effective almost immediately.”

2) Geopolitics

The US-Iran stand-off remains a key concern for global equity markets, a glimpse of which was seen on Thursday when Indian markets came under heavy selling pressure.

Trump on Friday issued fresh warnings to Iran, threatening military action if it refuses to “better negotiate a fair deal”.

According to AFP, the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier entered the Mediterranean Sea on Friday after being ordered by US President Donald Trump as part of a significant military build-up in the Middle East. The carrier was seen transiting the Strait of Gibraltar, which connects the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea.

3) US markets

Domestic markets will take cues from Wall Street’s performance. On Friday, the frontline US indices ended on a subdued note. The Dow 30 settled at 49,359, down 83 points or 0.17%, while the S&P 500 closed at 6,940, declining 5 points or 0.06%. The Nasdaq Composite also ended marginally lower, slipping 14.63 points or 0.06% to 23,515.40.

However, for the week, US markets posted gains. The Dow rose 0.5%, or 231 points, to 49,626, while the S&P 500 advanced 48 points, or 0.70%, to 6,909.51. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.90%, or 203 points, to 22,886.

Also read: Sweeping tariffs gone but Trump’s 10% global tariffs on. What to expect from markets on Monday?

4) Crude oil

In the event of a war-like situation, crude oil prices are expected to rise amid potential supply disruptions. Any escalation in tensions could impact the Strait of Hormuz, a 21-mile-wide waterway that serves as a critical artery for global energy supplies. Nearly 13 million barrels per day pass through the Strait, accounting for about 31% of global seaborne crude oil trade.

US WTI crude was last trading at $66.31 per barrel on COMEX, down $0.09 or 0.14%, while Brent settled at $71.76, up $0.02 or 0.03%.

5) FII/DII action

Friday’s data showed that Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold Indian equities worth Rs 934.61 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were net buyers at Rs 2,637.15 crore.

Although FII flows have remained positive so far in February, sustained inflows will be crucial for benchmark indices to end the month on a strong note and potentially defy the usual negative seasonality.

6) IPO watch

Three mainboard IPOs are set to collectively raise Rs 4,063 crore this week, pointing to a busy primary market calendar. The line-up includes renewable energy player Clean Max Enviro Energy Solutions, jewellery retailer PNGS Reva Diamond Jewellery and engineering solutions provider Omnitech Engineering.

In addition, six SME issues will hit the market, taking the total fundraising across the mainboard and SME segments to nearly Rs 4,300 crore.

Among the SME IPOs slated to open are Shree Ram Twistex (Rs 110.24 crore), Kiaasa Retail (Rs 69.72 crore), Accord Transformer and Switchgear (Rs 25.59 crore) and Mobilise App Lab (Rs 20.10 crore).

Also read: FIIs turn buyers in February with Rs 16,912 crore worth of equity inflows. Is this a sign of trend reversal?

7) Technical triggers

Decoding the technical setup, Bajaj Broking said the index formed a reasonably strong bullish candle with an upper shadow on the daily chart, indicating a rebound from lower levels even as selling pressure persisted at higher zones. The Nifty continues to trade below its 21-, 50- and 100-day EMAs, with the next key and reliable support seen near the long-term 200-day EMA, placed around the 25,250 mark.

“In the near term, the index is expected to consolidate within a broad 25,000–26,000 range, maintaining a sideways bias. Volatility remained elevated, with India VIX spiking amid lingering geopolitical concerns. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 25,350, followed by 25,200, which aligns closely with the 200-day EMA and could act as a crucial cushion. On the upside, resistance is placed at 25,650 and 25,720, where any pullback towards higher levels is likely to attract selling pressure,” the brokerage said.

8) Rupee Vs dollar

The rupee plunged 26 paise to settle at 90.94 against the US dollar on Friday, tracking the strength of the American currency against major peers and rising crude oil prices amid escalating US-Iran tensions. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 90.94 and slipped to an intraday low of 91.04 before closing at 90.94, marking a sharp decline of 26 paise from the previous close.

Earlier in the week, the rupee had risen 4 paise to settle at 90.68 on Wednesday. The forex market remained closed on Thursday on account of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Jayanti.

“Technically, the USDINR spot has broken out on the upside after a two-week consolidation phase between 90.40 and 90.80. Immediate support is now seen at 90.80, while resistance is pegged at 91.10 and 91.40,” said Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Nifty closed with gains on Wednesday, recording its third positive close amid buying trends in consumer, financial and metal stocks though the IT sector dragged markets. The Nifty gave a consolidation breakout on the 15-minute chart, leading to a rally towards the end of the session.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities said that the sentiments have improved significantly over the last three sessions as the index reclaimed the 25,500 support after a brief decline and then crossed the 25,800 resistance, providing double confirmation of strength. “In the short term, 25,500 is likely to act as a crucial support level. As long as it holds, buyers are likely to dominate. On the higher end, the index may extend gains towards 26,000 and above,” he added.

Here are 2 stock recommendations for Thursday:

Buy Bank of India at Rs 172.55 | Upside: 8%

Stop Loss: Rs 165

Target: Rs 187

The stock has registered a decisive breakout from its consolidation range, indicating the beginning of a fresh upward phase. It is currently trading above all major exponential moving averages — 20, 50, 100, and 200 EMAs — confirming a positive short- to mid-term trend structure. Momentum remains supportive, with the RSI at 64.01, positioned above its 14-period average of 57.29, signaling continued bullish momentum. Importantly, the RSI is not yet in the overbought zone, suggesting there is room for further upside and the potential to achieve higher price targets in the near term.(Kunal Kamble, Sr. Technical Research Analyst, Bonanza Portfolio)

Buy Bank of Maharashtra at Rs 68.99 | Upside: 8%

Stop Loss: Rs 66.25

Target: Rs 74.5

The stock has delivered a decisive breakout from its consolidation range, signaling the start of a fresh upward move. It is now trading above all major exponential moving averages — 20, 50, 100, and 200 EMAs — confirming a positive short- to mid-term trend. Momentum indicators further support the bullish outlook, with the RSI at 65.9, trading above its 14-period average of 55.5. The RSI remains below the overbought zone, indicating healthy momentum and suggesting that the stock has the potential to achieve higher upside targets in the near term.

(Kunal Kamble, Sr. Technical Research Analyst, Bonanza Portfolio)

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

Nifty recorded their second successive gains on Wednesday, staging a strong comeback aided by buying action in financials, metal and energy sectors. The index continues to hold above its long-term 200-DMA at 25,170, which is likely to act as a key support.

Commenting on the current trends, Nilesh Jain, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research Analyst (Equity Research), Centrum Broking said the Nifty saw a follow-up move and formed a bullish candle on the daily chart. “The overall structure remains positive, with scope for the up-move to extend towards the 25,500–25,600 zone, where the immediate hurdle of the 100-DMA is placed at 25,600 levels. The RSI has rebounded from oversold levels and is trending higher, indicating improving momentum. We expect Nifty to trade in a broader range of 25,200–25,600 in the short term,” De said.

Here are 2 stock recommendations for Thursday:

Buy HAL at Rs 4,624 | Upside: 7%

Stop Loss: Rs 4,450

Target: Rs 4,970

HAL has bounced strongly from the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and, after a healthy consolidation, has delivered a breakout with strong volume, indicating renewed buying interest. The stock is trading above all major EMAs (20, 50, 100, and 200), confirming short-term and long-term bullish sentiment. Momentum is also supportive, with RSI at 60.86, breaking above its 14-period average of 50.02, suggesting bullish momentum continuation and scope for further upside.(Kunal Kamble, Sr. Technical Research Analyst, Bonanza Portfolio)

Buy Solar Industries at Rs 13,916 | Upside: 10%

Stop Loss: Rs 13,250

Target: Rs 15,250

Solar Industries India (SOLARIND) has broken out of a falling wedge pattern and, after a healthy pullback, has resumed its upward move with strong volume, confirming buying strength. The stock is now trading above all major EMAs (20, 50, 100, and 200), with a decisive close above the 200 EMA, signaling short-term and long-term bullish momentum. Momentum indicators remain supportive, as RSI stands at 65.73, comfortably above its 14-period average of 54.01, suggesting continued upside potential.

(Kunal Kamble, Sr. Technical Research Analyst, Bonanza Portfolio)

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

Stop Loss: Rs 468

Target: Rs 530
Sona BLW Precision Forgings has broken out of a descending channel with a strong bullish candle accompanied by a significant volume surge, signalling a clear trend reversal. The price has reclaimed key moving averages, including the 20, 50, and 100 EMA cluster near ₹470–474, strengthening the upward momentum. RSI at 58 indicates improving strength without entering overbought territory. With the breakout confirmed, the stock is poised for a short-term upward move. Fresh buy is favourable at CMP ₹489 with a stop-loss at ₹468 and an upside target of ₹530. The overall structure now shifts from consolidation to a bullish breakout.

(Kunal Kamble, Sr. Technical Research Analyst, Bonanza Portfolio)
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Time

Nifty ended its three-session losing streak on Thursday amid strong buying trends in most indices though pharma, metal and auto stocks took the leadership positions. The index managed to close above the 200DMA for the second consecutive day.

Commenting on the current trends, Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities said that the overall sentiment remains weak as the index consolidated after a positive start, supported by strong global cues.

“Nifty faced resistance near the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level, resulting in a decline from the day’s high of 25,435 to 25,168 before closing near the midpoint of the session’s range. Although the index managed to close above the 200DMA for the second consecutive day, weakness continued as reflected by the elevated India VIX, which stood at 13.35. In the short term, the index is likely to remain volatile on Friday. Resistance is placed in the 25,480–25,500 zone, while support is seen around 25,125,” De added.

Here are 2 stock recommendations for Friday:

Buy Ujjivan SFB at Rs 62 | Upside: 8%

Target: Rs 57

Stop Loss: Rs 67Ujjivan Small Finance Bank has confirmed a trend reversal into a higher high higher low structure, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. The stock has decisively broken above the long-term downward sloping trendline, supported by expanding volumes, which validates the breakout. Price is trading comfortably above key moving averages, with the 20 and 50 EMA acting as dynamic supports near Rs 55–Rs 57, reinforcing a buy-on-dips setup. RSI is holding above 65, reflecting strong momentum without being excessively overbought. As long as the stock sustains above the breakout base, the trend remains constructive, with scope for further upside continuation in the medium term while dips are likely to attract buying interest.

(Drumil Vithlani, Technical Research Analyst, Bonanza Portfolio)

Buy SBI at Rs 1,048 | Upside: 6%

Target: Rs 1,080

Stop Loss: 990

State Bank of India is clearly exhibiting a classic HH–HL formation, confirming a sustained uptrend on the daily timeframe. Price has consistently made higher swing highs above Rs 1,000 and higher swing lows near the rising 20–50 EMA zone (Rs 980–Rs 995), indicating strong demand on dips. The recent consolidation just below Rs 1,050 followed by a breakout reinforces trend continuation rather than exhaustion. All key moving averages are stacked positively, which supports bullish structure. RSI holding in the 60–70 zone reflects healthy momentum without extreme overbought. As long as SBI holds above the last higher low near Rs 990, the HH–HL structure remains intact, keeping the bias bullish with buy-on-dips strategy; only a sustained break below this level would threaten the trend.

(Drumil Vithlani, Technical Research Analyst, Bonanza Portfolio)

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

The markets saw a decisive breakdown from the 500-point trading range (26,200- 25,700) after a period of consolidation, ending the week on a negative note. Throughout the week, Nifty traded with a clear downward bias, oscillating within a range of 750 points between 26,373 and 25,623. It was the only major global equity index to end in the red, weighed down by rising uncertainty around US trade tariffs and a deferred Supreme Court decision, now expected on January 14.

India VIX spiked 16.51% for the week to 10.93, reflecting heightened caution. As a result, Nifty ended the week with a loss of 645.25 points or -2.45%.

The current technical structure signals a potential pause in the prevailing uptrend as the index has closed below the lower edge of the 500-point trading range. The close below the 20-week moving average (25,579) would end up in some incremental weakness. Markets remain vulnerable to further pressure, especially amid a combination of domestic consolidation and global risk events. A breach below the current support region could deepen the corrective move, while a bounce back above 25,850–25,900 would be essential to regain strength.

The coming week may open on a tentative note, likely influenced by further developments from the US. Initial resistance is expected at 25,900 and then 26,100, while immediate support lies at 25,500, followed by a more crucial zone near 25,300. A failure to defend 25,300 could attract incremental weakness.

The weekly RSI stands at 53.16 and has marked a fresh 14-period low; it remains neutral without any divergence against price. However, its flattening near the midline suggests waning momentum. The MACD has shown a bearish crossover with the MACD line now below its signal line, accompanied by a widening negative histogram, reinforcing signs of a developing downside. No strong candlestick reversal pattern was observed on the weekly timeframe, but the long black candle indicates negative sentiment.

From a pattern analysis perspective, the Nifty is still above the falling trendline that it penetrated. The support on this trendline would translate into the Nifty testing the 25,500-25,300 zone. The index also failed to hold above the upper Bollinger Band in recent weeks and is now testing the median line, further suggesting that upward momentum has faded. Despite the broader trend still being intact, the index has now come under short-term pressure if it slips below its 20-week average.

Given the current setup, traders would do well to adopt a measured and stock-specific approach. Aggressive index positioning should be avoided until clarity emerges either through reclaiming resistance zones or external event resolution. For now, it is prudent to protect gains, trail stop losses where applicable, and remain selective in fresh buying. The week ahead should be navigated with heightened caution and an adaptive, reactive strategy rather than a predictive one.

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), representing over 95% of the free-float market cap of all the listed stocks.

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that the Nifty Services Sector and Pharma Indices have rolled inside the leading quadrant. These groups, along with Infrastructure, Banknifty, PSU Bank, IT, Midcap 100, and Financial Services groups, which are also in the leading quadrant, will relatively outperform the broader Nifty 500 Index.

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that the Nifty Services Sector and Pharma Indices have rolled inside the leading quadrant. These groups, along with Infrastructure, Banknifty, PSU Bank, IT, Midcap 100, and Financial Services groups, which are also in the leading quadrant, will relatively outperform the broader Nifty 500 Index.

The Nifty Metal and Auto Indices are inside the weakening quadrant. However, they are seen as sharply improving on their relative momentum against the broader markets.

Nifty FMCG, Energy, and Realty Indices are inside the lagging quadrant. These groups may relatively underperform the broader markets. The PSE and the Media Indices are also inside the lagging quadrant. However, they are showing a strong improvement in their relative momentum.

There are no sectors presently inside the improving quadrant.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)