Sarah Kapnick started her career in 2004 as an investment banking analyst for Goldman Sachs. She was struck almost immediately by the overlap of financial growth and climate change, and the lack of client advisory around that theme.

Integrating the two, she thought, would help investors understand both the risks and opportunities, and would help them use climate information in finance and business operations. With a degree in theoretical mathematics and geophysical fluid dynamics, Kapnick saw herself as uniquely positioned to take on that challenge.

But first, she had to get deeper into the science.

That led her to more study and then to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the nation’s scientific and regulatory agency within the U.S. Department of Commerce. Its defined mission is to understand and predict changes in climate, weather, oceans and coasts and to share that knowledge and information with others.

In 2022, Kapnick was appointed NOAA’s chief scientist. Two years later, JPMorgan Chase hired her away, but not as chief sustainability officer, a role common at most large investment banks around the world and a position already filled at JPMorgan.

Rather, Kapnick is JPMorgan’s global head of climate advisory, a unique job she envisioned back in 2004.

Just days before the official start of the North American hurricane season, CNBC spoke with Kapnick from her office at JPMorgan in New York about her current role at the bank and how she’s advising and warning clients.

Here’s the Q&A: 

(This interview has been lightly edited for length and clarity.) 

Diana Olick, CNBC: Why does JPMorgan need you?

Sarah Kapnick, JPMorgan global head of climate advisory: JPMorgan and banks need climate expertise because there is client demand for understanding climate change, understanding how it affects businesses, and understanding how to plan. Clients want to understand how to create frameworks for thinking about climate change, how to think about it strategically, how to think about it in terms of their operations, how to think about it in terms of their diversification and their long-term business plans.

Everybody’s got a chief sustainability officer. You are not that. What is the difference?

The difference is, I come with a deep background in climate science, but also how that climate science translates into business, into the economy. Working at NOAA for most of my career, NOAA is a science agency, but it’s science agency under the Department of Commerce. And so my job was to understand the future due to physics, but then be able to translate into what does that mean for the economy? What does that mean for economic development? What does that mean for economic output, and how do you use that science to be able to support the future of commerce? So I have this deep thinking that combines all that science, all of that commerce thinking, that economy, how it translates into national security. And so it wraps up all these different issues that people are facing right now and the systematic issues, so that they can understand, how do you navigate through that complexity, and then how do you move forward with all that information at hand?

Give us an example, on a ground level, of what some of that expertise does for investors.

There’s a client that’s concerned about the future of wildfire risk, and so they’re asking, How is wildfire risk unfolding? Why is it not in building codes? How might building codes change in the future? What happens for that? What type of modeling is used for that, what type of observations are used for that? So I can explain to them the whole flow of where is the data? How is the data used in decisions, where do regulations come from. How are they evolving? How might they evolve in the future? So we can look through the various uncertainties of different scenarios of what the world looks like, to make decisions about what to do right now, to be able to prepare for that, or to be able to shift in that preparation over time as uncertainty comes down and more information is known

So are they making investment decisions based on your information?

Yes, they’re making investment decisions. And they’re making decisions of when to invest because sometimes they have a knowledge of something as it’s starting to evolve. They want to act either early or they want to act as more information is known, but they want to know kind of the whole sphere of what the possibilities are and when information will be known or could be known, and what are the conditions that they will know more information, so they can figure out when they want to act, when that threshold of information is that they need to act.

How does that then inform their judgment on their investment, specifically on wildfire?

Because wildfire risk is growing, there’ve been a few events like the Los Angeles wildfires that were recently seen. The questions that I’m getting are could this happen in my location? When will it happen? Will I have advanced notice? How should I change and invest in my infrastructure? How should I think about differences in my infrastructure, my infrastructure construction? Should I be thinking about insurance, different types of insurance? How should I be accessing the capital markets to do this type of work? It’s questions across a range of trying to figure out how to reduce vulnerability, how to reduce financial exposure, but then also, if there are going to be risks in this one location, maybe there are more opportunities in these other locations that are safer, and I should be thinking of them as well. It’s holistically across risk management and thinking through risk and what to do about it, but then also thinking about what opportunities might be emerging as a result of this change in physical conditions in the world.

But you’re not an economist. Do you work with others at JPMorgan to augment that?

Yes, my work is very collaborative. I work across various teams with subject matter experts from different sectors, different industries, different parts of capital, and so I come with my expertise of science and technology and policy and security, and then work with them in whatever sphere that they’re in to be able to deliver the most to the bank that we can for our clients.

With the cuts by the Trump administration to NOAA, to FEMA, to all of the information gathering sources — we’re not seeing some of the things that we normally see in data. How is that affecting your work?

I am looking to what is available for what we need, for whatever issue. I will say that if data is no longer available, we will translate and move into other data sets, use other data sets, and I’m starting to see the development out in certain parts of the private sector to pull in those types of data that used to be available elsewhere. I think that we’re going to see this adjustment period where people search out whatever data it is they need to answer the questions that they have. And there will be opportunities. There’s a ton of startups that are starting to develop in that area, as well as more substantial companies that have some of those data sets. They’re starting to make them available, but there’s going to be this adjustment period as people figure out where they’re going to get the information that they need, because many market decisions or financial decisions are based on certain data sets that people thought would always be there.

But the government data was considered the top, irrefutable, best data there was. Now, how do we know, when going to the private sector, that this data is going to be as credible as government data?

There’s going to be an adjustment period as people figure out what data sets to trust and what not to trust, and what they want to be using. This is a point in time where there is going to be adjustment because something that everyone got used to working with, they now won’t have that. And that is a question that I’m getting from a lot of clients, of what data set should I be looking for? How should I be assessing this problem? Do I build in-house teams now to be able to assess this information that I didn’t have before? And I’m starting to see that occurring across different sectors, where people are increasingly having their own meteorologist, their own climatologist, to be able to help guide them through some of these decisions.

Final thoughts?

Climate change isn’t something that is going to happen in the future and impact finance in the future. It’s something that is a future risk that is now actually finding us in the bottom line today.

Ajay Bagga identifies defensives such as pharmaceuticals, FMCG, and utilities as likely outperformers amid global volatility. He sees particular promise in pharma, especially if India strikes a beneficial deal with the U.S. At the same time, Bagga believes financials and industrials remain strong long-term plays due to their structural advantages.

The Indian equity market recently experienced a significant correction, declining 16% from its all-time high before staging a recovery last week. Historically, such downturns have been followed by strong rebounds, with markets reverting to their mean and surging to new highs over the long term.

A closer look at past trends reveals that each market recovery has been led by different sectors, highlighting the importance of sectoral rotation in driving overall market performance.

The historical performance of BSE sectoral indices reveals a clear pattern of sectoral rotation, providing valuable insights for investors to strategically position their portfolios for the upcoming financial year. Understanding the cyclicality of different sectors can help investors make informed decisions while managing risks effectively.

The below chart shows financial year-wise sectoral returns of indices.

(Source: Google Finance)

Understanding Sectoral Trends & Rotation

During periods of heightened volatility, the Banking and FMCG sectors act as defensive anchors, absorbing market pressure and mitigating downside risks. While these sectors may deliver moderate returns during rallies, they provide resilience during corrections. Notably, the Banking sector has not posted negative returns over the past five financial years, underscoring its stability.

Looking at historical patterns, the IT sector, which was a key outperformer between 2018 and 2022, has lagged in recent years. However, its cyclical nature suggests a potential recovery, positioning it for outperformance in the coming years. Meanwhile, Oil & Gas has made it to the top-performing sector list only twice since 2010, making it less predictable in terms of sustained leadership.

Cyclical sectors such as Auto, Realty, and Metals follow distinct performance patterns. The Realty sector, for instance, tends to alternate between extreme outperformance and significant declines. Data suggests that after a strong performance phase, Realty often delivers negative returns. Similarly, the metal sector exhibits a cyclical trend, typically trading as outperforming sector for two years, followed by a phase of underperformance over the subsequent two years. Given this cyclical pattern, the metals sector could continue its previous trend, demonstrating bullish outperformance.

Past data also indicates that the IPO index performs exceptionally well during bull markets, as investor sentiment fuels enthusiasm for newly listed companies. However, IPO stocks tend to be the first to decline when markets correct, making them more vulnerable to downturns. If the broader market rally continues, we may witness IPO stocks leading the next uptrend.

Meanwhile, Midcap and Smallcap indices consistently remain in the middle ranking of 4 to 9 performing segments, generating robust long-term returns. Midcaps, in particular, have demonstrated strong growth potential while exhibiting lower drawdowns compared to more aggressive sectoral indices.

Investment Discipline: The Key to Market Success

While historical trends offer valuable insights, it is important to recognize that markets do not follow an exact script. The market operates under a set of rules – those who understand and follow these rules stand the best chance of achieving sustainable and superior returns.

As we enter into a new financial year, investors must remain agile, diversified across defensive, cyclical, and high-growth sectors, and prepared to capitalize on emerging opportunities while managing risks prudently.

Here are the rules which we can call the “Rules of the Jungle (Market)” in order to generate higher returns.

1. Markets always revert to the mean in the long run. Up moves will be followed by down moves and vice versa.
2. Markets are dynamic. There isn’t a constant. So, be prepared for change.
3. Never put all your eggs in one basket. But don’t over-diversify either. Keep a well-balanced yet concentrated portfolio.
4. Unfortunately, there isn’t a one-size-fits-all rule for diversification or concentration. Find your own sweet spot.
5. Don’t be overjoyed when markets are good. Don’t be sad when markets are not going your way. Remember: This too shall pass.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

As 2025 begins and we prepare for the year ahead, reviewing last year’s economic and market developments is essential. Last year has been defined by resilience amid global challenges, as markets navigated central bank policies, geopolitical shifts, and domestic economic activity. This article highlights key themes shaping the year ahead, explores sectoral opportunities, and examines transformative technologies like artificial intelligence (AI).

Market sentiment and growth expectations

The outlook for 2025 is cautiously optimistic. While global economic challenges persist, signs of growth, especially in the second half of the year, are encouraging. In 2024, uneven growth weighed heavily on many economies due to higher interest rates, disrupted supply chains, and geopolitical uncertainties.

Domestically, India demonstrated remarkable resilience, driven by robust consumption and policy support. However, 2025 is expected to begin on a muted note, with corporate earnings in Q3 of FY25 unlikely to surprise positively. Tight liquidity and high borrowing costs may continue to pressure profitability in key sectors.

That said, the second half of 2025 offers hope for a turnaround. Softer inflation, potential interest rate cuts, and recovering global trade may provide a much-needed boost. Domestic structural reforms and improving credit conditions could further support economic momentum.

Global concerns and geopolitical developments

Global growth concerns are likely to persist in 2025 as developed economies grapple with rising inflation, high debt levels, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, as reflected in recent comments, has dampened market sentiment, with persistent rate hikes affecting global liquidity and investment flows.

Geopolitical developments, particularly potential policy shifts under Donald Trump, could inject volatility into global markets. Unpredictable trade tariffs and foreign relations may disrupt supply chains and elevate risk premiums across sectors, emphasising the need for diversification and hedging strategies.

Additionally, the strengthening US dollar has put pressure on emerging market currencies, including the Indian rupee. While rupee depreciation may challenge import-heavy sectors like energy and technology, it could benefit exporters in IT and pharmaceuticals. Careful capital allocation across sectors and geographies will be key.

Domestic catalysts: Capex and policy support

Infrastructure development has been central to the government’s economic strategy. However, recent trends indicate that the actual capital expenditure (capex) spending has lagged. If the government accelerates its spending in the latter half of FY25, it could catalyse growth in infrastructure-related industries, including construction, logistics, and materials.

Private sector capex also holds significant potential. Improving capacity utilization rates and greater access to credit create favorable conditions for investment in sectors like manufacturing, construction, and renewable energy. However, uncertainties around the timing and scale of these investments make it essential to approach planning with caution.

Sectoral Outlook for 2025

Several sectors are poised to perform well in 2025, offering diverse opportunities for investors. Below is an overview of the top-performing sectors:

1. Consumption

India’s consumption story remains robust, fueled by a young population, rising incomes, and urbanization. Consumer durables, FMCG, and discretionary products are likely to benefit from improving sentiment and festive demand in the latter half of the year. E-commerce platforms and retail chains may see sustained growth as digital adoption deepens.

2. Healthcare

The healthcare sector has consistently delivered strong results, supported by rising health awareness and government initiatives. Companies in pharmaceuticals, diagnostics, and medical devices stand to benefit from increased spending and export demand. Additionally, India’s position as a leading supplier of generics bolsters long-term growth prospects.

3. Banking & Financials

Banking and financial services will remain vital to economic growth in 2025. Robust credit growth, improving asset quality, and greater financial inclusion will support profitability in this sector. Innovations in digital payments and fintech continue to reshape financial services, presenting exciting opportunities for technology-driven players.

4. Information Technology (IT)

The IT sector’s adaptability to global trends ensures its resilience. As businesses prioritize digital transformation, Indian IT firms are poised to benefit from demand for cloud computing, cybersecurity, and data analytics services. The sector’s role in enabling AI-driven solutions further strengthens its growth potential.

5. Capex-linked Sectors

If capex spending accelerates, infrastructure, manufacturing, and industrials will benefit significantly. Companies involved in construction, cement, and heavy machinery are well-positioned to capitalize on increased investment flows into large-scale projects. Monitoring policy updates and project execution timelines will be crucial for investors.

AI: The Defining Trend of the Decade

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is reshaping industries worldwide. Its impact spans healthcare, finance, retail, and manufacturing, creating demand for data centers, high-performance computing infrastructure, and industry-specific applications.

Vertical AI solutions—tailored to specific sectors—are unlocking efficiencies and driving innovation. For example, AI-powered diagnostics in healthcare are improving patient outcomes, while algorithm-driven investment strategies are revolutionizing finance. The growing need for computational capabilities has also spurred investments in semiconductor manufacturing and cloud services.

Companies leveraging AI effectively will gain a significant competitive edge, making this an unmissable theme for forward-thinking investors.

Investment Strategy for 2025

Given the mixed macroeconomic signals, investors should adopt a balanced approach to portfolio construction. Consider these strategies:

1. Diversification: Spread investments across asset classes and geographies to mitigate risk. Defensive sectors like healthcare and consumption can balance cyclical plays in banking and infrastructure.
2. Focus on Quality: Prioritize companies with strong fundamentals, consistent cash flows, and a proven ability to innovate.
3. Thematic Investing: Target long-term growth areas such as AI, renewable energy, and digital transformation. Thematic funds and ETFs offer efficient ways to gain exposure.
4. Hedging Against Currency Risk: For global portfolios, strategies to counter dollar strength and rupee depreciation will be essential.

The year 2025 presents a mix of opportunities and challenges. While global growth concerns and geopolitical uncertainties persist, India’s economy offers pockets of resilience and catalysts for recovery. A disciplined and forward-looking investment strategy will be key to navigating these complexities.

Sectors such as consumption, healthcare, banking, IT, and capex-linked industries stand out for their potential. Additionally, the transformative power of AI offers unparalleled opportunities for those prepared to embrace change.

Staying informed and agile will be critical for success in 2025. Let’s welcome the year with optimism and a commitment to navigating the future with confidence.

(The author is Smallcase Manager and Founder at Wright Research)

The Indian stock market is a dynamic and ever-evolving landscape, mirroring the broader economic shifts within the country and the global economic environment. As India continues its journey toward becoming an economic powerhouse, new themes are emerging in the stock market, presenting compelling opportunities for investors. These themes are shaped by a combination of technological advancements, government policies, changing consumer behavior, and global trends. This article explores some of the emerging themes in the Indian stock market.

Digital Transformation: The Tech-Driven Growth

In recent years, digital transformation has become central to business strategies across various sectors in India. The rise of digital payment platforms, e-commerce, and fintech has been particularly noteworthy. These sectors are leveraging technology not only to enhance consumer experiences but also to drive financial inclusion on an unprecedented scale. The government’s push towards a cashless economy, combined with increasing internet penetration and smartphone usage, has created fertile ground for growth in these areas.

Moreover, the digital revolution is not confined to consumer-facing industries. Enterprise technology solutions, including cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and data analytics, are also transforming how businesses operate.

Green Energy and Sustainable Investments

Sustainability has emerged as a critical theme in the global investment landscape, and India is no exception. The Indian government’s commitment to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2070 has spurred a wave of investments in green energy. Renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, and hydroelectric power, are receiving significant attention from both policymakers and investors.

The push towards sustainability is also driving innovation in energy storage solutions, electric vehicles (EVs), and clean technologies. Battery technology, a key component of the EV ecosystem, is another area where investors are keenly watching for breakthroughs.Additionally, there is a growing trend towards environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investing. Investors are increasingly considering the long-term environmental and social impact of their investments.

Healthcare Innovation and Biotech Expansion

COVID-19 pandemic underscored healthcare sector’s importance like never before. In response to the challenges posed by the pandemic, there has been a surge in innovation within the healthcare and biotechnology sectors. This has opened up new investment opportunities in areas such as pharmaceuticals, diagnostics, medical devices, and telemedicine.

Biotechnology, in particular, is emerging as a significant theme. Investors are now increasingly focusing on companies involved in research and development of new drugs and therapies.

Consumer Shift Towards Premiumization and Aspirational Spending

The Indian consumer landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, driven by rising incomes, urbanization, and changing lifestyles. One of the prominent trends is shift towards premiumization, where consumers are increasingly opting for higher-quality, branded products and services over budget alternatives.

This trend is evident across various sectors, including consumer goods, automobiles, real estate, and financial services.

Infrastructure Development and Real Estate Revival

The government’s focus on building world-class infrastructure, including roads, railways, airports, and smart cities, is creating significant opportunities in the construction, engineering, and real estate sectors.

The real estate sector, which had been facing challenges due to regulatory changes and liquidity issues, is now showing signs of revival. The implementation of reforms such as the Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act and the introduction of affordable housing schemes have provided a much-needed boost to the sector.

Urbanization and the development of smart cities are other themes that are likely to drive growth in the real estate and infrastructure sectors.

Global Supply Chain Realignment

The global supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic have prompted companies worldwide to reconsider their manufacturing and sourcing strategies. The Indian government’s “Make in India” initiative, coupled with the Production-Linked Incentive schemes, is positioning the country as an attractive destination for manufacturing.

Sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, and textiles may benefit from this shift. In addition, the focus on domestic manufacturing is expected to boost ancillary industries such as logistics, warehousing, and industrial automation.

Conclusion

The Indian stock market is on the brink of significant transformation, driven by a range of emerging themes that reflect broader economic, technological, and societal shifts. For investors, staying attuned to these trends and identifying the right opportunities will be key to navigating the complexities of the market and achieving long-term success.

(The author is Co-CIO Equity, LIC Mutual Fund)

Jun 29, 2024, 01:24:48 PM IST

1/11

Maintain composure during panic

Renowned value investor David Tepper advises that maintaining composure during market panics can lead to success, as growth is a natural process and optimism is often rewarded in the long run.

iStock

2/11

Big market corrections provide big opportunities

David Tepper believes that significant market corrections create substantial opportunities for investors, who must identify these opportunities to succeed. He acknowledges that the exact reasons for deep market corrections are unclear, but emphasizes that without them, many top-performing long-term investors would not have achieved their remarkable returns.

Shutterstock.com

3/11

Spot best opportunities

David Tepper advises investors to always stay optimistic and be vigilant for the best investment ideas. By identifying the right opportunities, particularly during market corrections, investors have the potential to become very wealthy.The investing legend advises investors to stay informed about all market information and to conduct thorough research before investing in any company. This approach helps investors identify the best opportunities available.

Getty Images

4/11

Keep emotions in check

Tepper emphasizes that during periods of panic, market tendencies can devalue stock values. He stresses the importance for investors to maintain emotional detachment from their investments, as emotions can hinder rational decision-making.

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5/11

Diversify your portfolio

Tepper underscores the significance of portfolio diversification for investors, emphasizing that it can help mitigate losses. He advocates for spreading investments beyond stocks alone, suggesting allocation across various options such as bonds to enhance overall portfolio resilience.

Agencies

Tepper believes that patience is crucial for achieving success in investing, noting that it often takes time to identify excellent investment opportunities. He emphasizes that no single market approach is universally effective, as the investment climate is dynamic and can vary over time.

Tepper advises that for young investors to succeed in investing, they must possess ambition and enthusiasm to pursue significant achievements.

ETMarkets.com

Tepper advocates that investors should stand by their portfolios and avoid panic, especially if their investments were based on thorough research and sound analysis, even if initial losses occur.

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Wait for the right time to invest

Tepper believes that during unfavorable investment environments, investors should adopt a defensive strategy to preserve capital and avoid losses.

IANS

10/11

Avoid herd mentality

Tepper says in order to outperform the market, investors must try to be contrarian and avoid the herd mentality.

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Have the right balance of aggression and patience

Tepper suggests that while patience is crucial for investment success, so is aggression when the timing is appropriate. Despite some investors finding the balance of patience and occasional aggression unconventional, they often discover that this approach is effective in the long run.(Disclaimer: This slideshow is based on some of David Tepper’s interviews.)

Agencies

Embarking on the journey of equity trading opens a world of opportunities for individual investors, offering a path to financial growth and the excitement of being part of a company’s success story. Yet, navigating this path requires more than just enthusiasm. This article brings to light crucial strategies for newcomers in the stock market, emphasizing the power of diversification, patience, and informed decision-making.

A Guide to Starting Strong in Equity Trading

Equity trading isn’t just about buying low and selling high; it’s an art that demands a strategic approach. Caution is advised with penny stocks, known for their allure due to low prices but high volatility.

Beginners are recommended to start with a modest investment, focusing on learning and gradually expanding their portfolio. This step-by-step approach minimizes risks while maximizing potential learning and growth.

“Diversification is your best defense against market volatility,” emphasizes the importance of spreading investments across different stocks, sectors, and asset types to mitigate risks that come with market fluctuations, ensuring a smoother journey in the equity market.

Research: The Backbone of Successful Investing

Thorough research is non-negotiable. Analyzing a company’s financial health over the past three years and understanding its business model provides a solid foundation for investment decisions. This diligence helps in identifying companies with stable growth potential and a competitive edge in their industry.

Where to Invest? Sector Picks

In the current economic landscape, promise is seen in domestic enterprises, with sectors less affected by consumption downturns recommended. Auto, industrial, and cement sectors stand out for their robust growth prospects, making them attractive options for both novices and seasoned investors alike.

Learning from the Past: Equity Market Performance

Reflecting on previous years, it’s noted that there were impressive gains in the Nifty Index and even more remarkable performances in the mid-cap and small-cap sectors. The growth phase of these companies often translates into significant returns for investors willing to embrace a bit of volatility for long-term gains.

Facing Market Downturns with Confidence

Market dips are inevitable, yet these moments are ripe with opportunity for those with a long-term perspective. Steady investments during these times can average out costs and yield considerable benefits as the market recovers.

Looking Ahead: The Market Forecast

With optimism, a buoyant outlook is anticipated for the Indian equity market, fuelled by lower interest rates and strong economic fundamentals. However, investors are cautioned to prepare for potential volatility and underscore the importance of informed, strategic investment choices.

Analyst Disclaimer

The insights shared are for educational purposes, aimed at empowering beginners with knowledge to navigate the equity market confidently. Investment involves risks, and it’s crucial to consult with a financial advisor tailored to individual financial goals and circumstances.

(The author is Managing Director of Findoc)

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic)

“I’ve often wished that somewhere I could find a guidebook to help me deal with change. That’s what this class is designed to do,” Shetty said in a press release ahead of the launch, where he also speaks on the pivots of his life from living as a monk to becoming a public figure. “Members will get clarity on how to approach the uncertainties in their lives, and they’ll walk away with the ability to see change as a beautiful guide and teacher, no matter how uncomfortable it may feel.” 

Shetty unpacks how people can embrace change rather than fear it. After all, whether we like it or not, change is one of the only constants in life. 

Alongside renowned cognitive science, grief, and psychology experts, Shetty explores how the fear of change is the real enemy, underlining a collective discomfort with uncertainty. Closing the gap between the fear and the potential for change can help us weather the storm. 

“So often our instinctual reaction to change is actually blocking us from growing,” Shetty says in the MasterClass, exclusively obtained by Fortune.  

Here are three steps to reframe how you think about change from Shetty’s MasterClass. 

1. Prepare for the realities of change 

There’s no one-size guidebook for facing unexpected and traumatic change such as a loss. While Shetty touches on moving through grief in one section of the MasterClass, he also discusses how to handle purposeful change. 

In this context, preparing for the realities of change is helpful, despite not knowing the outcome. Using a growth mindset, we can see uncertainty as potential for growth. When people decide to change something, they can prepare by knowing there will be ups and downs in the process. See these roadblocks as learning opportunities rather than signs of defeat.

“A lot of us feel that if something is meant for us that it should be easy. It should flow. It should work out, and we see that as a sign. Some others think that if it’s hard, then it’s right for us,” he says in the class. “I’m here to tell you that neither is true or false. The reality is that any new fresh pursuit will have inherent struggle within it.” 

If you’re contemplating making a personal change in a job or relationship, consider learning first. What about the status quo do you like, and what do you not like? This pause helps people make changes aligning with their passions, preferences, and expertise, Shetty explains in his class. 

2. Ask yourself this question 

When Shetty leaped into a media career, he was uncertain of the outcome. He thought he may fail, which, admittedly, he did at first. However, he asked himself this question: Will I regret it if I don’t try or will I regret it if I do try?

Shetty draws on research showing how people on their deathbed regret the things they didn’t do versus the times they did something, faced a change, and learned something from it. 

“We don’t regret the changes we did try,” Shetty says.

3. Talk to yourself in the third person  

What advice would you give your friend, spouse, or co-worker? Often, it is harder to imagine change in the confines of our doubtful minds, Dr. Maya Shankar, a cognitive scientist and host of the podcast A Slight Change of Plans, tells Shetty in the class. However, when we talk to ourselves as we would a friend, it’s easier to believe the comforting words. 

“It’s hard for us to see our situations through an objective lens because we have all of these emotions that are swirling about,” Shankar tells Shetty. 

Throughout his four lessons, Shetty challenges us to focus on the positive ways change has helped shape where we are today. 

“Change is never easy. Change is never comfortable. Change is never as graceful as we like it to be,” Shetty says in the MasterClass. “Our desire for it to be easy and simple and graceful is what makes it so complex.” 

Our hearts are always filled with joy when we celebrate Ganesh Chaturthi. The Lord Ganesha’s annual arrival and departure during the festival marks the continuous cycle of birth, life, and death. Interestingly, the stock market also exhibits a continuous cycle of ups and downs.

When the devotees welcome the arrival of Lord Ganesha into their homes, it signifies the birth of life with hope and new beginnings.

The stock market faces similar phases when the bull market offers the investors the birth of opportunities with periods of prosperity and success. Healthy economic growth, market stability, high employment, rising corporate profits, increased investments, and consumer spending are some of the key factors that lead to the upward trend in stock prices. Market participants are filled with happiness when they see their portfolio gains just like how devotees celebrate the festival with dance, music, and prayers.

Conversely, there comes a time to bid adieu to Lord Ganesha which represents the end of one cycle and the commencement of another.

In the world of the stock market too, the bullish phase ends eventually as it deals with excesses of leverage and over-optimism built during this phase. One must encounter the challenges and uncertainties of the bear market.

This stage signals the concept of death or declines within the market cycle. Investors lose money and focus on re-evaluating their strategies and risk tolerance just like devotees focus on reflecting on their obstacles in life.

As devotees eagerly await and have faith that Lord Ganesha will return next year, investors too must have faith in the principle of mean reversion. It basically means that no condition can prevail for too long. Greed will be replaced by fear. And fear will be replaced by greed. Periods of high margins will be replaced with low margins as the market forces quickly rebalance the outliers. This cycle of rebalancing will go on and on.

Investors who understand the cyclicality of the market and mean reversion can better position themselves to profit from them over the long term.

Technical Outlook

The Indian Market gimmicked the market participants with its uneven moves. Majorly the jolt has come from US Markets and FIIs selling from the Indian market.

During the week, the Nifty benchmark indices exhibited a trading range of 275 points, ultimately ending with a marginal loss of 0.18% when compared to the previous week. This decline was accompanied by a 7.43% uptick in the INDIA VIX signaling increased market volatility.

There were some profit bookings from higher levels as panic selling was observed across the sectors, especially in Midcap and Smallcap.

From a technical perspective, Nifty formed a bearish candle with an extended wick on the weekly chart. Furthermore, it closed below both the 20 and 50-day moving averages on the daily chart, indicating short-term weakness. Key indicators such as RSI and MACD also skewed negatively.

In terms of options open interest (OI) data, significant concentration centered around the 19400 levels, likely serving as a crucial support level. Resistance, on the other hand, was anticipated in the 19850-19900 range.

Market breadth still suggests some sort of weakness. To overcome it, Private Banks need to take on command.