Wall Street banks may finally be getting a long-awaited opening to claw back market share from private credit lenders.

After a decade in which private credit lenders grew rapidly and took over a large share of financing for leveraged buyouts, signs of strain in that sector, along with easing bank rules, may now be shifting the balance.

“This is an opportune time for banks to regain market share from private credit funds,” Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi told CNBC in an email.

“Interest rates have declined and banking regulation has eased. Private credit lenders are also struggling with the fallout from their previously aggressive lending,” he highlighted.

Private credit’s rapid ascent was fueled in part by banks’ retreat. Following the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes and the 2023 banking crisis, lenders tightened underwriting and pulled back from riskier deals. Borrowers, particularly private equity firms, increasingly turned to direct lenders offering faster execution and looser terms.

At its peak, the shift was dramatic. According to PitchBook data, banks’ share of buyout financings above $1 billion fell to just 39% in 2023, down from about 80% in the five years prior. That share has since recovered to just over 50% in 2025.

And the tide may be turning further.

Private credit is facing mounting challenges. Years of aggressive lending are starting to backfire, as higher interest rates make it harder for heavily indebted borrowers to repay loans and increase default risks. Investor demand for liquidity is also rising, with some clients seeking to pull money after years of locking up capital.

Moody’s Zandi expects the sector to “experience more credit problems in the coming months,” citing fallout from geopolitical tensions, higher borrowing costs and structural pressures in industries such as software. Consumer and healthcare borrowers may also come under strain.

Blackstone and Ares, for example, were among 33 lenders that reportedly provided about $5 billion in financing to back investment firm Thoma Bravo’s acquisition of logistics company WWEX Group, underscoring how private credit firms can still fund large buyout deals even as banks begin to re-enter the market.

Pitchbook’s global head of credit and U.S. private equity Marina Lukatsky noted that the expected rebound in buyouts and dealmaking has yet to materialize this year, as uncertainty around trade policy, interest rates and geopolitics has slowed activity. With fewer deals taking place, demand for financing has declined across both banks and private credit.

For banks to make a meaningful comeback, borrowing costs in syndicated loans, which are large loans arranged by banks and funded by a group of lenders, need to become more competitive, she added. Additionally, large buyout activity needs to pick up, and the broader economic outlook needs to improve.

Crucially, private credit retains structural advantages that are difficult for banks to replicate, including speed, certainty of execution and flexible conditions, which some borrowers may continue to value in volatile markets, noted some experts.

That said, a comeback is on the cards.

“The tug of war is just starting,” said Jeffrey Hooke, senior lecturer in finance at Johns Hopkins Carey Business School 

“The rules have been relaxed, so it’s only natural that banks want to get back some of their market share in private credit.”

Moody’s Ratings on Monday downgraded a private credit fund run by KKR and Future Standard to junk amid rising bad loans and a string of weak earnings.

The ratings firm lowered the debt ratings of FS KKR Capital Corp by one notch to Ba1 from Baa3 — pushing it into “junk” territory — saying that the fund’s underlying asset quality had worsened more than its peers.

Non-accrual loans, meaning borrowers who have stopped making payments, rose to 5.5% of total investments at the end of 2025, one of the highest rates among rated BDCs, according to the report.

“The downgrade reflects FSK’s continued asset quality challenges, which have resulted in weaker profitability and greater net asset value erosion over time relative to business development company (BDC) peers,” Moody’s said.

The move by Moody’s is the latest sign of distress in the private credit world. Retail investors have been rushing to withdraw funds, running into gates amid concerns about upcoming credit losses, especially related to software loans. Funds like FS KKR issue debt to help juice returns, so the Moody’s downgrade could increase its borrowing costs and, therefore, lower future returns.

Moody’s also flagged other aspects of the fund that could expose it to greater losses over time, including higher leverage, a higher proportion of payment-in-kind loans, and a lower percentage of first-lien loans than peers.

FS KKR posted a net loss of $114 million in the fourth quarter alone and earned just $11 million in net income for all of 2025, according to Moody’s.

The fund didn’t immediately return a request for comment.

MGM Resorts on Wednesday said that a cyber incident that has significantly disrupted properties across the United States for the past three days represents a material risk to the company.

At the same time, the major credit rating agency Moody’s warned that the cyberattack could negatively affect MGM’s credit rating, saying the attack highlighted “key risks” within the company.

The company’s corporate email, restaurant reservation and hotel booking systems remain offline as a result of the attack, as do digital room keys. MGM on Wednesday filed a 8-K report with the Securities and Exchange Commission noting that on Tuesday the company issued a press release “regarding a cybersecurity issue involving the Company.”

8-Ks as a rule are filed when publicly traded companies want to notify the SEC of an event that can have a material effect on the firm. An MGM spokesperson confirmed the company views the incident as material. The spokesperson later clarified he was not speaking of the company’s position beyond what was in the filing.

The spokesperson declined to comment on the Moody’s warning.

MGM’s share price has declined more than 6% since Monday, the day it first acknowledged the outages, compared to a modest gain in the S&P 500 during the same period.

The FBI told CNBC on Monday it is monitoring the “ongoing” situation. The SEC’s new cyber disclosure rules will not go into effect until the end of the year, so MGM is not yet obligated to provide more information to the SEC than they already have.

On social media, patrons have expressed frustration with the scope and duration of the outage, with some describing how hotel key cards aren’t working. Others expressed concerns about the security of their personal data. In 2020, MGM acknowledged that it had lost the personal information of more than 10 million customers in a hack. The data resurfaced on a hacking forum that same year.

MGM is communicating with the press through noncorporate, commercially available email addresses. Other than a brief update Tuesday confirming that the company had brought its gaming floors back online, MGM has provided little further information.

The SEC did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

–CNBC’s Dan Mangan contributed to this report.