Emkay Global has retained a bullish long-term outlook on Indian equities despite rising geopolitical tensions and elevated crude oil prices, saying the Nifty could climb to 29,000 by March 2027 as domestic growth drivers remain intact.

In its latest India strategy report, the brokerage said India’s macroeconomic resilience, improving earnings outlook, and continued policy support are likely to help markets weather near-term global volatility.

The brokerage expects the Nifty to reach 29,000 by March next year based on a target valuation multiple of 19.2 times FY28 earnings. The report comes at a time when global markets are grappling with heightened uncertainty linked to the prolonged conflict in West Asia and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil shipping route.

Brent crude prices have remained elevated in the $105–110 per barrel range after the Strait of Hormuz remained shut for more than 11 weeks, according to the report.

Emkay warned that prolonged high oil prices could materially affect India’s economy, given the country’s dependence on imported energy. According to the brokerage’s scenario analysis, if Brent remains around $100/barrel, India’s current account deficit could widen to 2.4% of GDP from the earlier baseline estimate of 1.3%.

GDP growth could also moderate to 6.3% from the earlier expectation of 7%, while consumer inflation may rise to 4.6%. In a more severe scenario where crude prices surge to $130 per barrel, Emkay estimates India’s GDP growth could slow further to 5.5%, and inflation could rise to 5%.

Still, the brokerage believes the broader long-term growth story for Indian equities remains intact.”While global geopolitical developments and elevated crude prices may continue to create intermittent volatility, India’s structural growth drivers remain intact,” said Seshadri Sen, Head of Research and Strategist at Emkay Global.

“Earnings resilience, policy support, easing domestic inflationary pressures, and ongoing capex investments continue to provide a strong foundation for Indian equities,” Sen said.

He added that any sharp correction triggered by global concerns should be viewed as a long-term buying opportunity rather than a structural threat to India’s growth outlook.

Emkay said the March quarter earnings season has started on a relatively stable note despite global uncertainty. Among companies under the brokerage’s coverage universe that have reported results so far, 46% delivered earnings above expectations, while only 29% missed estimates.

The brokerage has retained its FY27 Nifty earnings per share estimate at Rs 1,230 and continues to expect nearly 13% earnings growth. The report noted that the Nifty is currently trading around 19.2 times FY27 forward earnings, close to its five-year average valuation.

Emkay believes markets are still under-pricing the earnings recovery expected during FY27 and FY28. The brokerage expects nearly 14% cumulative earnings growth over the next two financial years.

On the sectoral front, Emkay remains overweight on discretionary consumption, industrials, materials and real estate while staying underweight on financials, energy, healthcare, staples, telecom and technology in the near term.

The report also highlighted concerns around fuel under-recoveries for oil marketing companies.

According to Emkay, the recent Rs 3 per litre increase in fuel prices addresses only around 20% of the current under-recoveries, suggesting additional fuel price hikes may become necessary if crude prices remain elevated.

The brokerage described sustained high crude prices as a “four-way drag” on the economy because they simultaneously affect inflation, government finances, corporate profitability and household spending.

Despite the near-term pressures, Emkay said several domestic policy measures continue to support economic activity. These include income tax cuts, GST reductions and cumulative RBI rate cuts of around 125 basis points since February 2025.

The brokerage said these measures are expected to improve liquidity, support discretionary consumption and encourage private-sector investment. Government spending on railways, defence and infrastructure also continues to support economic activity and employment generation, according to the report.

Emkay further said the rupee may remain under pressure in the short term because of high crude prices and a stronger US dollar, though the Reserve Bank of India is likely to maintain a cautious policy stance to preserve macroeconomic stability.

The brokerage expects the rupee and bond markets to stabilise once geopolitical tensions ease and oil supply routes normalise. The report also pointed to improving trends in financial services sectors such as NBFCs and insurance.

According to Emkay, the NBFC sector has seen significant re-rating over the last few years due to better balance sheets, lower NPAs and stronger capital adequacy. It added that while the pace of outperformance versus banks may moderate, select NBFCs remain well-positioned to deliver healthy growth and profitability.

JSW Steel has posted a near 13-fold rise in its consolidated net profit for the March quarter aided by a one-time gain from the slump sale of BPSL Steel. The country’s largest steel-maker has also guided for reaching a production capacity of 78 million tonne by fiscal 32, up from around 36.4 million tonne currently.

The over two-fold rise in capacity will include capacity from joint ventures – POSCO and JFE Steel.

The flagship company of the JSW Group had a bottomline of Rs 19,243 crore as against Rs 1,510 crore last year. Apart from the exceptional gain, it also had a one-time charge related to the labour codes.

Adjusted for exceptional items, net profit stood at Rs 3,475 crore, more than double from the previous year.

The jump in profit was underpinned by the highest ever sales volume of Rs 7.97 million tonne during the March quarter, and the highest ever revenue from operations of Rs 51,180 crore. Reported earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization for the quarter rose to Rs 8,634 crore from Rs 6,378 crore a year ago, while EBITDA margins stood at 19%.

JSW Steel reported its earnings after market hours on Thursday, and its shares closed at Rs 1,297.05 rupees on the BSE, up nearly 2% from the previous close.

GROWTH STRATEGY
JSW Steel currently has a steel production capacity of around 31.9 million tonne at a standalone level, which is slated to rise to 48.8 million tonne by fiscal 2030, and then 62 million tonne by fiscal 2032.

Including 4.5 million tonne of capacity from its joint venture with JFE Steel, the company currently has a capacity of 36.4 million tonne, which will grow to 53.3 million tonne by fiscal 2030. Including its capacity from the joint venture with South Korean steel major POSCO, the company will have a capacity of 78 million tonne by fiscal 2032.

“JSW Steel’s growth continues to be firmly India-centric, reflecting our long-term conviction in India’s growth trajectory,” the company said in a statement. “A strong domestic steel ecosystem directly contributes to self-reliance, while also creating an opportunity to build further resilience as a country, especially in increasing our energy security in an increasingly uncertain global environment,” it said.

JSW Steel has guided for spending Rs 22,000-24,000 crore on capital expenditure in the current fiscal, up from Rs 15,595 crore it spent in fiscal 2026.

The company has also announced expanding capacity at its Vijayanagar plant by another 5 million tonne by fiscal 2030 for a capital expenditure of Rs 26,000 crore. This will make it the world’s largest plant in a single location with a capacity of 25 million tonne.

A decline in promoter shareholding can have multiple interpretations. While it may reflect fundraising for expansion or other strategic purposes, it can also raise concerns among investors about alignment between promoters and minority shareholders. In the NSE midcap universe, we highlight 13 stocks where promoter holdings declined in the March 2026 quarter compared to the December 2025 quarter, based on StockEdge shareholding data.

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An increase in promoter shareholding usually reflects heightened confidence among a company’s promoters or major shareholders regarding the firm’s future prospects. In the Nifty 500 index, we have highlighted the top nine stocks where promoters increased their holdings in the March ’26 quarter, compared to the December ’25 quarter, according to the StockEdge shareholding scan.

This trend may indicate their optimism about the company’s performance, prompting them to invest more of their own capital. A rise in promoter stake often suggests a positive outlook for the company’s future and can be a bullish sign for investors.

Godrej Properties
Promoter stake rose to 51.66% in the March ’26 quarter from 47.17% in the December ’25 quarter.

Adani Energy Solutions
Promoter stake rose to 72.73% in the March ’26 quarter from 71.19% in the December ’25 quarter.

JB Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals
Promoter stake rose to 48.8% in the March ’26 quarter from 47.55% in the December ’25 quarter.

Jindal Stainless
Promoter stake rose to 62.05% in the March ’26 quarter from 61.23% in the December ’25 quarter.

eClerx Services
Promoter stake rose to 54.52% in the March ’26 quarter from 53.81% in the December ’25 quarter.Adani Enterprises
Promoter stake rose to 74.67% in the March ’26 quarter from 73.97% in the December ’25 quarter.

Vardhman Textiles
Promoter stake rose to 65.09% in the March ’26 quarter from 64.44% in the December ’25 quarter.

NCC
Promoter stake rose to 22.81% in the March ’26 quarter from 22.25% in the December ’25 quarter.

Onesource Specialty Pharma
Promoter stake rose to 30.48% in the March ’26 quarter from 29.93% in the December ’25 quarter.

Grasim Industries
Promoter stake rose to 43.74% in the March ’26 quarter from 43.22% in the December ’25 quarter.

Saregama India
Promoter stake rose to 60.84% in the March ’26 quarter from 60.39% in the December ’25 quarter.

Lodha Developers
Promoter stake rose to 72.27% in the March ’26 quarter from 71.85% in the December ’25 quarter.

Benchmark Nifty has staged a sharp rebound so far in April, rising about 8% in just 15 trading days after a steep, nearly 10% correction in March. However, despite the recovery, the index continues to trade below its pre-war levels of sub-25,000.

The recovery has been uneven and largely driven by short covering and selective buying, even as broader sentiment remains cautious. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have continued to stay on the sidelines, pulling out nearly Rs 48,000 crore from Indian equities in April so far.

The sustained FII outflows underline concerns around India’s relative positioning amid global uncertainties, particularly as investors continue to favour markets linked to the AI-driven rally elsewhere.

Analysts point to crude oil prices as a key overhang. Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, said elevated oil prices are emerging as a major macro concern. “Elevated oil prices are raising concerns around inflation, currency stability, and broader macro balances, thereby weighing on overall sentiment,” he said.

The earnings season has now kicked off, shifting investor focus to company-specific performance. However, the broader market mood remains guarded.

“While the immediate impact on Q4 earnings is expected to be manageable, prolonged Middle East tensions could have more meaningful implications for Q1FY27. Volatility is likely to remain elevated,” Nair added, noting that markets will closely track geopolitical developments alongside earnings quality and management commentary.

Brokerages maintain their caution despite the recovery. BNP Paribas has cut its 2026 Nifty target by 11% to 25,500, citing weaker earnings growth and a moderation in valuation multiples. The brokerage warned that elevated crude prices could strain India’s fiscal and trade balances, potentially forcing tighter government spending and weighing on consumption.While the recent ceasefire offers some near-term relief, it does not fully offset macro risks triggered by higher energy prices. BNP drew parallels with previous periods of oil shocks in 2008, 2011 and 2022, when elevated crude prices had a prolonged impact on economic growth and market performance.

Domestic institutional views, however, remain relatively constructive. HDFC AMC noted that the recent correction has improved valuation comfort in parts of the market, with six out of twelve sectors now trading below their long-term averages.

As of March-end, the Nifty was trading at around 17 times one-year forward earnings, with market cap to GDP at about 127%, suggesting valuations are not excessively stretched following the pullback.

Also read: HDFC Bank, BSE and Tata Motors among top stocks mutual funds bought and sold during March crash

Over the medium to long term, the outlook for Indian equities remains supported by strong domestic growth, healthy corporate profitability and policy support, including tax and GST relief measures. However, near-term risks continue to dominate the narrative.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Ace investor Dolly Khanna continued her stock-picking spree in the March quarter, adding two new names to her portfolio. She picked up a 1.30% stake in Chennai Petroleum Corporation, amounting to 19,31,724 equity shares. Alongside, Khanna also bought a 1.09% stake in Sharda Cropchem, acquiring 9,82,178 equity shares.

The market capitalisation of Chennai Petroleum Corporation, which operates in the oil refining space, is Rs 14,750.42 crore.

The stock has rallied nearly 70% in the past year, outperforming the benchmarks Nifty and the BSE Sensex, whose returns in the same period stand at 8% and 6%, respectively, according to Trendlyne data. Chennai Petroleum shares are currently trading above their 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) of Rs 932 and 828, respectively.

Its shares jumped 4.6% to hit the day’s high of Rs 1,012.40 on the NSE today.

Meanwhile, Sharda Cropchem, valued at Rs 9,478.57 crore, is a key player in the agrochemicals segment, benefiting from global agricultural demand trends. Khanna purchased 9.82 lakh shares in the company.

Sharda Cropchem is a multibagger stock with 119% returns in the past year. Today, its shares jumped 10%, scaling the day’s peak of Rs 1,072.

Also read: Mukul Agarwal buys 1.6% stake in True Colors; shares trade 10% below IPOKhanna, a Chennai-based large investor, is known for lesser-known picks that tend to go on to overperform in the stock market. She has been investing in the stock markets since 1996. Her portfolio is managed by her husband, Rajiv Khanna. Dolly Khanna’s portfolio typically leans towards more traditional stocks in manufacturing, textiles, chemicals and sugar stocks.

As per the latest corporate shareholdings filed, Dolly Khanna publicly holds 11 stocks with a net worth of over Rs 459 crore, according to Trendlyne.

Another marquee investor, Mukul Agarwal, added a 1.62% stake in True Colors during the quarter ended March 31, purchasing nearly 4 lakh shares in the company.

True Colors shares jumped 10% today to hit the day’s high of Rs 179.15. Listed on September 30, 2025, the stock is trading below its IPO price of Rs 191.

(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) offloaded domestic equities worth Rs 1,13,810 crore in March, extending their selling trends amid the Iran-Israel war. So far, this year, they have offloaded Indian shares worth Rs 1,27,157 crore.

This has turned out to be the worst month so far, as foreign investors continue pulling out from their Indian investments amid the Iran-Israel war.

Commenting on the current trends, Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments said the weakness in global equity markets following the war in West Asia, the steady depreciation of the rupee, fears of decline in remittances from the Gulf region and concerns surrounding the impact of high crude price on India’s growth and corporate earnings contributed to the sustained selling by FPIs.

“It is important to understand that FPIs were sellers in other emerging markets, too, like Taiwan and South Korea. There is a risk-off trend in equity markets, globally after the war broke out in West Asia. The poor returns from India vis-a-vis other markets – both developed and emerging- during the last eighteen months is the principal reason for FPI’s indifference towards India. If their sustained selling strategy is to change, there should be an end to the hostilities in West Asia and decline in crude prices,” Vijayakumar said.

On Friday, FIIs sold domestic shares at Rs 4,367.30 crore while DIIs were net buyers at Rs 3,566.15 crore.

Indian frontline indices ended their two-session rally amid sharp cuts as a failure in the Iran-US negotiations dented the market mood. Elevated energy prices and a plunging rupee aggravated troubles for domestic investors. Amid high volatility, markets were mainly dragged by financials, auto and consumer stocks. Nifty settled at 22,819.60, falling by 486.85 points or 2.09% while the BSE Sensex closed at 73,583.22, declining 1,690.23 points or 2.25%.

FIIs in 2026

Foreign investors turned net buyers in February, buying shares worth Rs 22,615 crore in the domestic markets so far. In January, they sold Rs 35,962 crore worth of shares.

In 2025, the FIIs buying trends remained patchy, but the overall trend was bearish. They took Rs 1,66,286 crore from Indian markets as trade deal delay and premium valuations weighed on the sentiments.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)