Ethereum is pushing against resistance just below $2,400, trying to extend a recovery that has brought it back from the lows near $1,750 set during February’s sharp capitulation. The market remains uncertain, and every attempt at higher levels has been met with selling pressure that reflects the broader caution defining crypto right now. But a CryptoOnchain report has surfaced a supply-side data point that reframes the current price level in a way that is worth sitting with.

Ethereum reserves on Binance have fallen to approximately 3.31 million ETH — their lowest point since early 2021. That number alone carries weight, but what makes it genuinely striking is the comparison it invites. The last time Binance held this little ETH in reserve, Ethereum was trading at around $590. The asset has since risen nearly fourfold from that baseline. The supply available to sell on one of the world’s largest exchanges has not recovered to match that price appreciation — it has kept falling.

What that means in structural terms is that the market is attempting to push above $2,400 with a dramatically thinner sell-side cushion than has existed at any comparable price level in years. The resistance is real. But the supply available to sustain it may be less abundant than the chart suggests.

57% Less ETH to Sell — and Holders Are Not Coming Back

The trend behind the current reserve level is as significant as the number itself. Ethereum reserves on Binance have not simply dipped — they have been in sustained, continuous decline, falling from approximately 7.7 million ETH at their peak to the current 3.31 million.

That is not rotation or temporary withdrawal. It is a structural migration of assets away from liquid trading venues and into cold storage, DeFi smart contracts, and staking platforms — destinations where ETH is committed rather than available.

In on-chain analysis, that kind of persistent exchange outflow is one of the clearest signals of long-term holder conviction. When investors move assets off exchanges, they are making an active decision to remove them from the pool of immediately sellable supply. They are not watching for an exit. They are positioning for what comes next.

What makes the current situation particularly striking is the price context. In 2021, when reserves were last at this level, Ethereum was worth around $590. Today it is trading near $2,400 — and yet holders are keeping even less on exchanges than they did then. That behavior at a dramatically higher price reflects a market that has matured, with participants who understand the asset well enough to hold through volatility rather than sell into it.

If new demand enters this market — driven by macro tailwinds, institutional adoption, or network developments — it will meet a sell side that has never been thinner relative to current price levels. That is the setup the reserve data is describing.

“I think it’s really hard to figure this out without failing. You just have to fail a million times,” Weinberg said on a recent episode of Fortune’s Term Sheet podcast. 

The 30-year-old founder is a lawyer by training. But that all changed in 2022 when he left his job at a securities and antitrust law firm to start Harvey, a startup that builds AI tools for lawyers. Since then, he andGabriel Pereyra, a former Meta and Google DeepMind AI research scientist, have earned the backing of the OpenAI Startup Fund, Sequoia Capital, and Kleiner Perkins. 

But that success didn’t come without plenty of failures along the way. And that, he said, is what changed his relationship to wins and losses.

“It’s not just you have to have a bunch of wins and then have a lot of failures. But you have to get good at taking some time to actually analyze: What did you do right? What did you do wrong?” Weinberg explained. “Most of that is destroying your ego 24/7.” 

He doesn’t shy away from failing, he said, adding “it’s a very good way to learn.”

His comments echo a long-held mantra of successful founders, from Bill Gates to Mark Cuban: learn from your failures. Weinberg deals with failure by having high ambitions, and high standards. Wins and losses hold less weight when there is a long-term goal in mind, he explained. He takes this tack with his staff as well. He explained that it can be an adjustment working with him because he will call out 15 failures in a day, which can surprise some people because they’re striving for perfection. 

“I do not care about perfection. I care about rate of improvement,” Weinberg said. “That’s all that matters because otherwise, what you’re going to end up doing is you’re going to hire a bunch of people that are really good for six months, and then if they aren’t improving, then it’s irrelevant, because your business has changed massively.” 

Weinberg said that Harvey’s staff, including himself, have to “re-earn” their positions every six months to survive in an industry where if a company isn’t innovating fast enough, it will lose, he explained. More than the technology, Harvey’s decisive culture is what matters to him most, he said.   

“I think you have to basically build a company that has a culture of making decisions very quickly and being okay to make mistakes.”

Ethereum is trading above $2,200 and pushing against key resistance levels. The price is at a decision point. And across four of the world’s largest exchanges simultaneously, the supply of ETH available to be sold has been quietly, persistently disappearing.

A CryptoQuant analysis tracking Ethereum’s exchange reserve structure has identified a development that directly changes the conditions under which the current resistance test is occurring. ETH reserves are declining not on one platform, not on two, but across Coinbase, Binance, Gemini, and OKX — the four major venues that collectively represent the deepest and most liquid ETH trading infrastructure available.

That multi-venue confirmation is the analytical distinction the report draws most sharply. A reserve decline on a single exchange can reflect any number of platform-specific explanations — custody transfers, institutional migration, exchange-internal movements. When the same directional decline appears simultaneously across four separate venues with different user bases and ownership structures, the platform-specific explanations lose their credibility. What remains is the structural one: ETH is leaving the sell side of the market on a broad, coordinated basis.

Ethereum testing resistance above $2,200 in a market where the available supply of ETH ready to be sold is shrinking across every major venue is a structurally different test than the ones that failed before it. The overhead has not disappeared. It has thinned, and thinned overhead responds differently to buying pressure than deep overhead does.

The Numbers Behind the Drain Are Not Small.

The CryptoQuant data gives the multi-venue supply contraction its precise dimensions. On Coinbase, Ethereum reserves fell from 5.6 million to 3.2 million between early August 2025 and April 9, 2026 — a reduction of 2.4 million ETH removed from America’s largest institutional trading venue over eight months. On Binance, reserves dropped from 4.75 million to 3.3 million ETH over the same period — 1.45 million ETH withdrawn from the exchange, processing the largest share of global ETH derivatives volume.

Those two figures alone describe a sustained, eight-month supply drain of nearly 4 million ETH across the market’s two most systemically important venues. Then the other exchanges add their own data.

Gemini recorded a single-day reserve drop of approximately 74,000 ETH on February 19 — an institutional-scale withdrawal concentrated into a single session. OKX produced the most dramatic reading of all: reserves fell from approximately 990,000 ETH on March 20 to just 167,000 ETH by April 9 — an 83% collapse in under three weeks.

Taken together across all four venues, the scale of the withdrawal is not ambiguous. Millions of ETH have left the immediately available sell-side pool over the past eight months, and the pace has not slowed. The market pushing against resistance above $2,200 is doing so with a fraction of the sell-side depth that existed when the current cycle began. That is not a minor structural detail. It is the context in which every buyer and seller is currently operating.

Hong Kong authorities have launched Scameter, a mobile fraud alert system that that notifies users of high-risk transactions. Singapore has introduced the Shared Responsibility Framework, which allocates scam loss responsibilities to financial institutions and telecommunication operators, encouraging the implementation of anti-scam measures. Similarly, Australia’s Scam-Safe Accord is a cross-industry initiative across banks, building societies, credit unions aimed at elevating the standard of customer protection to counter scams.

These moves all represent a strong response to a growing regional threat, exemplified by Southeast Asia’s “scam compounds”: physical hubs where criminal syndicates orchestrate large-scale online scams, including identity fraud, phishing, fake investments and money laundering. Disguised as legitimate businesses, these sophisticated operations generate billions of dollars annually.

What’s driving this evolution in financial crime? Increasingly, it’s artificial intelligence. Criminal networks use AI to create synthetic identities, launch massive phishing campaigns, and bypass traditional security systems—and do so with fewer resources and in record time. While scam compounds are concentrated in Asia, the threat of financial fraud is global.

Yet as Asia’s crime syndicates make headlines, the region’s banks are quietly leading a shift in how to prevent fraud. Unlike other banks, which use AI for customers personalization and call center support, Asian banks are instead tapping AI to fight back against cybercriminals through fraud detection, identity verification, and anti-money laundering.

Why APAC is outpacing in AI-driven fraud defense

Asia’s greater focus on AI-powered fraud prevention is due to the region’s exposure to financial crime. Asian institutions are in the trenches when it comes to cybercrime, pushing them to rapidly adopt AI-driven strategies.

The scale of financial loss is staggering. In 2024 alone, the Asia-Pacific region lost an estimated $688 billion to fraud, nearly two-thirds of the world’s total. Asians’ rapid adoption of digital wallets and payment platforms makes matters worse: By outpacing the rollout of strong consumer protections, this usage opens doors for cybercriminals and is putting banks on the front lines.

Asian banks are leading the way in adopting ISO 20022, a new messaging standard that allows financial institutions to use AI to precisely detect anomalies and cut exposure to financial crime.

Same tech, different playbooks

Regional priorities are shifting as banks adopt AI. Asia-Pacific banks are focusing on fraud prevention and security, while European and U.S. institutions instead use AI to personalize products and customer service.

According to our research, just over half of organizations in the UK want to use generative AI to enhance the customer experience. That reflects the UK’s hyper-competitive market, where user-friendly interactions are key to winning customer loyalty. The U.S. is splitting its AI focus between customers experience and operational automation, supporting both consumer demands for frictionless banking and internal goals for efficiency.

In contrast, 58% of Asia-Pacific banks are focusing their AI investments on fraud detection and anti-money laundering, well above the global average. Asia-Pacific banks face a high-risk landscape where criminal networks use generative AI for identity fraud, phishing and financial scams. As a result, the region prioritizes cybersecurity, forging a sharper, security-focused AI strategy that views fraud prevention as a key competitive advantage.

Importantly, AI is blurring the distinction between security and service. Growing cyber threats means customers expect their banks to not just protect their money, but also provide clear, accurate answers in times of uncertainty. Our work with clients reveals that AI-powered chatbots and authentication systems can speed up queries from banking staff by sourcing information for them 30-40% faster than before. This has in turn had a knock-on effect for customer satisfaction, with customers now rating their experiences with chatbots 25% higher than their previous conversations with human agents.

What the next era of banking demands

Fraud detection can’t be isolated in today’s threat landscape. It must be embedded within financial infrastructure. Whether that’s through cross-industry accords like Australia’s Scam-Safe Accord, or through the blend of service and security seen in AI-powered chatbots that both authenticate users and resolve queries in real time, APAC is demonstrating how integrated systems can turn raw data into actionable defenses, driven by AI and aligned with operational needs.

Asia-Pacific’s experience highlights that financial security hinges on being proactive, not reactive. Faced with massive fraud losses and complex scam networks, Asian institutions have swiftly prioritized AI-driven fraud prevention. U.S. and European peers, on the other hand, treat fraud prevention as one possible AI application among many. That will be a mistake as AI-driven financial crime starts to spread globally.

AI’s role in fraud will grow. Asia-Pacific’s strategy shows the value of acting quickly to counteract it, integrating fraud prevention into financial infrastructure. As global threats escalate, the world should look to Asia, not just as a regional leader, but as a role model for secure, seamless financial transactions.

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

Geopolitical tensions have increasingly influenced financial markets in recent years. From the prolonged conflict between Russia and Ukraine to the evolving trade dynamics between the United States and China, global developments have become a key concern for investors.

Even domestically, events such as India’s Operation Sindoor and trade-related tensions with neighbouring countries have remained in focus.

These events prompt important questions: How will markets react? What are the potential implications for portfolios? And most importantly, how can investors navigate such uncertain environments?

Why Geopolitics Matters to Investors

In the current global landscape, geopolitical events are no longer peripheral — they directly influence market sentiment and economic fundamentals. Conflicts, elections, diplomatic standoffs, and sanctions impact global supply chains, commodity prices, interest rates, inflation, and cross-border capital flows.

For example, the Russia–Ukraine conflict disrupted global energy supply chains, while US–China tensions have affected trade volumes and investment flows. For investors, understanding these linkages is crucial to managing risk and identifying opportunities.

Market Response to Geopolitical Events

While such events often trigger short-term volatility, historical trends suggest that equity markets, particularly in India, have shown resilience over the long term.

Key Examples:

India–Pakistan Standoff (2001–2002): The Sensex declined by nearly 3% during the standoff but recovered over the following year.

Mumbai Attacks (2008): Markets dipped nearly 2% immediately but rebounded significantly, gaining ~92% over the next year.

Surgical Strike (2016): The Sensex rose by ~26%, reflecting investor confidence.

Pulwama Attack (2019): The market remained largely stable and closed the year with a ~15% gain.

India–China Clash (2020): The Sensex dipped briefly but surged ~67% within 12 months.

Russia–Ukraine War: Initial volatility gave way to recovery, with the Sensex delivering a cumulative return of ~51% as of June 6, 2025.

US–China Trade War: Despite short-term fluctuations, markets posted a ~7% gain since the initial tariff announcements.

COVID-19 Pandemic: After a sharp initial decline (~23%), the Sensex rebounded by ~100% within a year.

While market corrections during such events are common, long-term investors have often been rewarded for staying invested.

Strategies to Position Portfolios Amid Global Uncertainty

While geopolitical events are beyond an investor’s control, the ability to respond with a disciplined approach can significantly mitigate potential downside risks.

1. Maintain a Long-Term Perspective

Investors are advised not to respond to geopolitical developments with impulsive decisions. Historically, the Nifty 50 has not posted negative returns over any rolling 10-year period since 1999, with average annualised returns of approximately 14.1%. Time in the market continues to outweigh timing the market.

2. Review and Realign Asset Allocation

An investor’s asset allocation should reflect their age, financial goals, and risk appetite.

● Younger investors (20s–40s) may consider higher equity exposure (80–100%).
● Near or post-retirement investors may benefit from increased allocations to fixed income or low-volatility instruments to preserve capital.

An important self-check: Would a 10–15% correction impact your financial stability? If yes, a rebalancing may be warranted.

3. Diversify Across Asset Classes and Geographies

Diversification remains the most effective tool for risk management. Investors should not only diversify across asset classes (equity, debt, gold) but also consider geographic exposure.

In the past year, for instance, the Hang Seng Index delivered ~29% returns — outpacing both the Nifty (~10%) and Dow Jones (~9%). Despite ongoing global tensions, China’s market has performed strongly on a year-to-date basis, reiterating the case for geographic diversification.

4. Incorporate Safe-Haven Assets

In periods of heightened uncertainty, assets like gold, silver, and government bonds tend to perform relatively better.
As of 2025 YTD:

● Gold has delivered ~26% returns
● Silver has returned ~23%
● Nifty 50, in comparison, has returned ~3%

Government securities also serve as a hedge against volatility, especially for risk-averse investors.

5. Maintain SIP Discipline

Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) allow investors to average costs over time and reduce the impact of market volatility. Continuity in SIPs during market corrections has historically proven beneficial, as it encourages disciplined investing and long-term wealth creation.

6. Maintain Liquidity for Contingencies

A reserve corpus equivalent to 3–6 months of essential expenses ensures that investors do not have to prematurely exit market positions during crises. Moreover, liquidity positions investors to take advantage of attractive valuations during market corrections.

7. Consider Defensive Sectors

In phases of heightened risk, investors may consider shifting partial exposure toward low-beta, cash-rich, and resilient sectors such as FMCG, Healthcare, and Utilities. These sectors often provide stability and steady earnings during volatile phases.

Wrapping Up

While geopolitical events do introduce uncertainty, history has consistently demonstrated the Indian equity market’s resilience. Whether during the pandemic, border tensions, or global trade conflicts, markets have eventually rebounded, rewarding investors who stayed the course.

Delaying action until after a crisis unfolds often results in missed opportunities, as markets tend to price in developments rapidly. It is, therefore, imperative to adopt a proactive — not reactive — approach.

Though geopolitical shocks cannot be anticipated or controlled, investors can mitigate their impact through prudent asset allocation, diversification, and long-term commitment to financial goals. Market volatility is temporary — but the benefits of strategic discipline are enduring.

(The author is Vice President of Research, TejiMandi)

Analyst Disclaimer: The article is for information purposes only. This is not investment advice. https://tejimandi.com/disclaimer

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)

For all those who think Gensol is the first or the last instance of promoters siphoning off money from a company for personal use, think again. Among all the companies that went under the IBC hammer, there were many where promoters had taken money out through multiple shell companies.
Some of these companies are listed on the SME Stock Exchange, but there are many that are listed on the main stock exchanges as well and could be future Gensol. Identifying them is not easy; but it is not difficult either, provided you know what to look for.

When you look at any company, be clear what is more important. Is it net profit? Or is it the cash flows?

While the street always prioritizes net profit, which a company declares, the real thing to study is the cash flow statement. It is here that the truth lies.

A look at the cash flow statement of Gensol clearly underscores this point. While the company was claiming to be making profits, its cash flow statement was telling a different story.

So, how to find the clearly identifiable red flags and gaping holes? It can be done by looking at two things and relating it to a third. First, study the balance sheet and the profit-and-loss account. And then relate it with the cash flow statement.

Are you interested in finding out whether you have a Gensol in your portfolio? We will help by showing you how to read and relate the three most important things: The balance sheet, the profit-and-loss statement, and cash flow statement.

Please join the ET, Value and Valuation MasterClass.
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Here we will focus on simple yet very effective ways to figure out which balance sheets to believe and which not.

Remember one thing: Whenever money is siphoned off from a company there will be a few stakeholders in that system who know what is happening. Do you believe that those higher up in the finance department of Gensol did not know that money was being used for purposes it should not be used for? But they kept quiet, probably to save their jobs. As an investor you should know how to protect your money.

To some, it might appear to be too long a time to spend on a subject like investing. But remember: Where the market is concerned, people who invest their time before they invest their money are more likely to be successful.

To spend your weekend to learn the art of reading cashflow statement
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Zomato is at a price-to-earning multiple (PE) of 127, Tata Motors at a PE of 41 and HDFC bank at 19. Imagine what would be the price of HDFC Bank today if it was quoting at a PE of 127.

Now, don’t get surprised that among the three stocks, HDFC Bank, despite being the best of wealth creators, gets the lowest valuation on the street.

Yes, stocks from different sectors tend to get different valuations. But there is more to it. The difference is also about at which stage of their cycle that business and that company are.

Here’s an example: A company and sector like Zomato and quick commerce, which are capital guzzlers, would be valued differently as compared to a mature business.

Now, Valuation is a combination of numbers and narratives. But there is only one way to value, and multiple ways to evaluate.

Join ETMarket’s four-day Value and Valuation workshop for a dive into value investing principles and its application in the real world.To join, click here Learning little things can have big consequences; but doing that is no layman’s job.

ETMarkets is bringing in two experienced finance professionals – ex-McKinsey CA Himanshu Jain and ex-Goldman Sachs CA Manoj Goel – for an online workshop on ETMarkets Live.

To join, click here

The four-day Value and Valuation workshop offers a hands-on dive into value investing principles and its application in the real world.

The workshop, which features case studies on notable companies like Tata Motors and Zomato and demonstrates real-world applications, is spread across two weekends: 22-23 February and 1-2 March.

Here are the key takeaways and topics covered in the workshop:

Intrinsic Value Calculation
The workshop emphasizes methods for calculating intrinsic value, a cornerstone of value investing. This calculation takes into account projected earnings, potential growth, and existing market conditions to reveal the true worth of a stock.

Analyzing Financial Statements
Value investors need to understand a company’s financial health thoroughly. Key statements like the income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement are reviewed in detail to help investors make informed decisions.

Valuation Techniques
Various valuation techniques are introduced, including discounted cash flow (DCF) and comparable company analysis, to equip attendees with a comprehensive toolkit for evaluating investment opportunities.

Benefits of the Workshop
The workshop not only delves into the technical aspects of value investing but also provides interactive sessions where attendees can clarify doubts and discuss case studies with instructors. Participants receive one year of access to recorded sessions, allowing for continuous review and application of the concepts learned.

Practical Applications
Through case studies of companies like Tata Motors, Zomato and Paytm, participants learn to apply value investing strategies to real-world scenarios, such as evaluating growth potential, risk factors, and economic influences that can impact valuation. These practical insights are invaluable for finance professionals, students, or anyone looking to deepen their investment expertise.