The most important dates for SpaceX haven’t happened yet, according to TD Securities.

Peter Haynes, the firm’s head of index and market structure, suggests SpaceX’s public debut is only a small part of the larger SpaceX timeline.

He’s urging investors to pay close attention to when SpaceX is added to key indexes — including the S&P Total Market Index, MCI Global Index, Russell Indexes and Nasdaq 100 early this summer.

“Day 15 [after SpaceX goes public], which should be July 6… will be the day that Nasdaq rebalances the 100 Index to reflect SpaceX’s IPO shares,” he told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week ahead of Friday’s IPO. “Then from there, we’re looking at when do indexes adjust for the additional shares that will be freely tradable down the road.”

In what Haynes called a “controversial decision,” the S&P 500 Index Committee announced earlier this month that SpaceX will not be fast-tracked into the index, meaning the Elon Musk rocket maker must trade on the market for at least one year until it becomes eligible.

“That leaves us with the other benchmarks and their rebalancing schedule,” said Haynes.

The decision means greater significance for upcoming index events, as many shares will become freely tradable and need to be reflected in the benchmarks, he says.

SpaceX debuted at the Nasdaq at 11:46 a.m. ET on Friday. The stock surged more than 19% to close at $160.95 — its market cap exceeding $2 trillion.

In a special note to CNBC after Friday’s market close, Haynes wrote: “We take for granted that the infrastructure that supports the equity trading business always works. Today was a test of that infrastructure and in my opinion the industry passed the test.” 

Marvell Technology, a chipmaker that makes several different parts and products needed for the artificial intelligence infrastructure boom, is joining the S&P 500 on June 22, becoming the latest semiconductor company to be added to the benchmark.

Flex, a contract manufacturer for electronics, will also be added to the index on June 22, according to a press release. The two companies will replace Pool Corp and The Campbell’s Company.

Marvell stock rose 5% in extended trading. The chipmaker was boosted earlier this week when Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said it could be the “next trillion-dollar company” when discussing the two chipmakers’ partnership. Nvidia also invested $2 billion into the company.

Flex rose 4% in extended trading. The company provides manufacturing services to leading technology companies, including Apple and Nvidia.

The move highlights the growing importance of the technology sector to the stock market. Veeva Systems, AppLovin, Datadog, DoorDash, and Robinhood are other technology companies that have been added to the index in recent years.

Marvell, headquartered in Santa Clara, California, was founded in 1995 to produce parts for spinning disk drives. Flex, which was previously known as Flextronics, is headquartered in Singapore but operates factories in both the U.S. and Asia.

The S&P 500 brushed off Thursday headlines about the U.S. and Iran trading blows in the Strait of Hormuz and continued marching higher in Friday trading, crossing 7,400 for the first time. Prediction market traders think there’s more fuel left in the tank.

While the benchmark is already up more than 16% from its March 30 lows, traders on Kalshi think the broad index has a 59% chance of breaching 8,000 this year. That’s an 8% gain from current trading levels, and the index only crossed 7,000 for the first time in January.

It’s not just traders on prediction markets getting more bullish. RBC hiked its 12-month-forward price target for the index to 7,900 in a Friday note. Head of U.S. equity strategy Lori Calvasina wrote that the average and median of the five models used by the bank to calculate its estimate is 8,100 — implying there may be even upside to her forecast. 

Stocks have shrugged off what appears to be a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a critical passageway for the global supply of crude oil — and a potential re-escalation of the U.S.-Iran war.

Investors instead have embraced an artificial intelligence buildout that appears to be firing on all cylinders. It’s boosting stocks of the companies involved, driving much of the earnings growth the market has been celebrating and pushing GDP higher through increased private investment. 

“The AI tech trade has just become so powerful that it’s superseded anything else,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners. He added that no one wants to miss out on a potential rally if the U.S. and Iran do finalize a peace agreement — even though stocks have rallied so much since the ceasefire announcement. “Momentum has a life of its own.”

Truist Wealth chief investment officer Keith Lerner said that the market’s sharp move higher needs to be put in the context of what happened before the war, when major U.S. indexes traded in a narrow range from late October until March. Current levels in comparison to levels the S&P first hit in October are closer to around 7% higher.

Boockvar added that Iran remains a risk, despite the indexes not showing it. He said weakness in some consumer-facing names display that there is some isolated pain in the economy that could be a risk to the broader market. 

Lerner agreed that Iran isn’t gone as a worry for the market, but the bar is high now for it to ruin the rally, and likely would have to mean oil prices breaching their highs from back in late March. 

“It has to come back in a way that’s meaningful, otherwise people are just going to buy the market pretty quickly,” he said. 

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.

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Options traders can’t get enough of semiconductor stocks. No matter how high they go or how expensive the options get, bulls just keep flooding the space.

After a 700% rally the past year, traders poured into Micron options Tuesday, paying expensive premiums to get access to further upside in the legacy memory-chip maker that became one of the market’s hottest AI trades over the past year.

More than $2.8 billion of Micron options premium changed hands Tuesday as of noon Chicago time, eclipsing the dollar-amount traded in index ETFs SPY and QQQ combined. Micron accounted for 12 of the top 20 options trades in the hour after the opening bell, according to data from SpotGamma — a major feat for a stock with no big newsflow and earnings months away.

Call volumes outpace puts on the stock, and call premiums dwarf the amount paid for puts. More calls were bought than sold, and more puts sold than bought on Tuesday, according to ThinkOrSwim, as implied volatility in the stock rose to 84 — roughly five times the volatility in the S&P 500.

Call-buyers ranged from deep in-the-money to out-of-the-money strikes, with the biggest trades leaning toward later-dated expiries that bet on a sustained move in Micron, whose market cap surpassed $700 billion.

Conviction in Micron was mirrored by traders in related names such as SanDisk and Western Digital, where call-buying dominated the action as those respective stocks hit all-time highs.

In another major market cap milestone, Intel on Tuesday surpassed its dotcom value, nearing a $550 billion valuation after a 13% pop that brings its one-year run to more than 430%.

On Apple’s first earnings call since the company announced its planned C-suite changes, traders on Kalshi think the company may discuss its creator studio, streaming platform and a fellow megacap tech company’s artificial intelligence model. 

Apple is set to report earnings after the bell on Thursday, just over a week since the company announced that longtime CEO Tim Cook will be leaving in September and replaced by senior vice president of hardware engineering John Ternus. 

Traders think it’s almost certain that the company will mention on its earnings call China and tariffs, placing odds at 98% and 96%, respectively. But there are other topics that traders are more divided on. 

But traders are more uncertain on other topics.

Google’s artificial intelligence model Gemini has a 27% chance to get mentioned. Apple has a deal with Google to implement the model into its Apple Intelligence features, but Apple is also widely viewed by Wall Street as the biggest tech laggard on AI development.

Meanwhile, traders mostly think the company won’t chat about glasses, assigning only a 24% chance. Apple has reportedly been working on designing an AI-supported smart glasses product as a new wearable technology for quite some time, but has yet to make a formal announcement of the development.

Traders also give just a 9% chance the company says fold, folding or foldable. That’s after a report this month that the timeline for the development Apple’s proposed foldable iPhone is delayed. However, a Bloomberg report indicates a planned fall 2026 launch is still on schedule.

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes a CNBC minority investment.

Big Tech stocks were on track to wrap a massive week on Friday, with shares of Oracle, Advanced Micro Devices and Microsoft set to post historic gains and benchmarks.

Oracle, up 32% week-to-date, is on track for its best week since October 1999. The company expanded an artificial intelligence data center power deal with Bloom Energy on Monday, contracting 1.2 gigawatts of capacity from Bloom. Oracle was issued a warrant to purchase $400 million of Bloom shares last week.

AMD is up 13% this week and hit an all-time high on Thursday, climbing over 40% during a run of 12-consecutive days of gains, its longest streak in over 20 years.

Microsoft is up more than 14% this week, pacing for its best week since April 2015. Microsoft’s rebound comes after the software giant wrapped its worst quarter since 2008 in March, where it lost almost a quarter of its value.

Tesla is also having a strong week, up 14% as CEO Elon Musk said Wednesday that the company hit a key milestone on its AI5 chip.

A flurry of announcements from Intel has boosted its stock as well this month. The chipmaker is up 55% in April, after a historic nine-day run driven by partnerships with Google and Elon Musk’s companies.

Broadcom, Micron, Marvell and ON Semiconductor are also up around 30% so far in April.

The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) is up about 15% week-to-date, pacing for its best week since October 2001. Anything better than 15.5% would mark its best week ever.

The SPDR Info Tech Fund (XLK) also hit an all-time high this morning for the first time since October 2025. The fund is on pace for its 13th straight day of gains, and its best week since April 2025.

The software sector has had a rough year due to AI disruption fears. Hopes for a lasting peace deal between the U.S. and Iran have fueled the sector’s recent rebound.

So far this year, the IGV is down about 20%.

There’s a love affair on Wall Street between investors and streaming.

The romance started about a decade ago when consumers began cutting the cord with cable TV bundles en masse in favor of direct-to-consumer streaming apps. However, where investors were once enamored with subscriber growth, rewarding companies that were able to expand their consumer reach, their attentions have now shifted toward profitability.

To meet this new expectation, streaming companies have raised the prices of their services, cracked down on password sharing and delved into the ad-supported space. It’s also sparked the likes of Paramount Skydance to seek out the acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery for its extensive library of content and top-tier streaming service, HBO Max, in order to compete.

While streaming continues to drive media stocks, especially around quarterly earnings, it’s not clear when — or if — it will start driving profits for the smaller players.

“Is streaming a good business?” Robert Fishman, senior research analyst at MoffettNathanson, posed in a March research note to investors. “We raised and debated this critical question over the years leading us to determine the answer is yes, albeit only for those services with sufficient scale.”

For legacy media companies, streaming has yet to fully supplant the profits and advertising revenue of linear TV. Of course, both of those metrics have been in decline for companies like WBD, Paramount and its peers.

In response, streamers have largely raised subscription prices for consumers, begging the question of where the ceiling is for streaming costs. Between higher fees and the sheer number of services needed in order to have access to all content, consumers are starting to balk.

Still, with these continuous linear TV declines, investors cling to streaming as a bright spot, especially for companies that have made it profitable. Disney has been among the steadiest of legacy media companies when it comes to a profitable streaming business, but Paramount and WBD have seen profitable quarters and Comcast’s Peacock is narrowing losses.

“With streaming no one’s reporting sub numbers anymore, because now it’s all about profitability,” Doug Creutz, senior research analyst at Cowen, told CNBC. “And that’s the metric by which these these businesses are being judged. It’s, you know, can you get to 10% operating profit? Can you get 15%? Can you get 20%? Can you get 25%? Can you get to where Netflix is?”

Netflix reported operating margin of 29.5% in 2025. Meanwhile, Disney, for example, guided investors to an operating margin for its direct-to-consumer business of 10% in fiscal 2026.

“This is the big question mark that all these companies face,” Creutz added. “You had a linear business that was really profitable and it’s gone away, and is the streaming business ever going to be that profitable?”