InterGlobe Aviation’s stock, which operates India’s largest airline, IndiGo, has faced significant turbulence over the past few days, both operationally and on the bourses. Shares have fallen sharply amid a spate of flight cancellations, regulatory scrutiny, and concerns around pilot shortages.

Despite the meltdown, some of the biggest brokerages remain optimistic about the airline’s structural strength, maintaining their ‘Buy’ ratings and citing long-term cost advantages, market dominance, and operational recovery plans as reasons to stay constructive.

However, the technical indicators present a contrasting view, with analysts pointing to a clear breakdown in chart structure and a decisive shift into bearish territory. With the stock trading well below key moving averages and hovering near critical support levels, momentum currently favours the sellers.

This divergence between fundamental conviction and technical weakness has left market participants closely watching whether IndiGo can stabilize at current levels, or if further downside is in store.

Let’s break it down for you:

Technical view: Downtrend still dominant

Technical analysts are less optimistic about IndiGo’s immediate prospects on the charts.

Shitij Gandhi, AVP – Equity Technical Research at SMC Global Securities, noted that the stock has entered “a sharp corrective phase after breaking down from a multi-week consolidation range marked between Rs 5,550 and Rs 5,900.” According to him, this breakdown, accompanied by volume spikes, signals “strong bearish sentiment.”The stock has also fallen below its 200-day moving average of Rs 5,450, reinforcing the downside bias. Gandhi warns, “With momentum clearly favouring sellers, the price is now drifting toward the next major support zone at Rs 4,800–4,700,” which aligns with a long-term horizontal base.

On any pullback, the Rs 5,100–5,350 zone is expected to act as stiff resistance.

Additionally, Akash Shah, Research Analyst at Choice Broking, highlighted similar concerns. “The broader structure has clearly shifted into a bearish trajectory, with the price forming lower highs and lower lows – a classic sign of increasing downside momentum.”

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Shah adds that the inability to reclaim even the shortest EMA reflects “continued pressure on every minor bounce.” He noted that all major EMAs have now turned downward, and that the 100-day EMA on the weekly chart also coincides with the Rs 4,700 zone, reinforcing it as a critical structural support.

“If a breakdown occurs below this cluster,” Shah warns, “it could accelerate weakness toward the Rs 4,550–4,500 zone.”

On the upside, the next major resistance lies at Rs 5,200–5,250, where a prominent unfilled gap is visible. “Only a decisive move above this gap zone would signal meaningful strength or a potential trend reversal,” he added.

Fundamental outlook: Temporary headwinds, but core story intact

While technical analysts are not very positive on the near-term prospects of the stock, the fundamentals suggest a case for resilience.

IndiGo, operated by InterGlobe Aviation, has been navigating a turbulent patch marked by over 11,000 flight cancellations this fiscal, operational disruptions, and regulatory scrutiny.

HSBC Global Investment Research, however, downplayed the long-term damage. “IndiGo faces major headwinds but no structural damage,” the brokerage said, adding that “given its continued cost advantage and muted capacity growth at its peers, we don’t see any structural damage for IndiGo.”

While HSBC has lowered its target price from Rs 6,920 to Rs 5,977 to account for near-term disruptions, it has retained a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock. According to the firm, IndiGo has cancelled flights worth Rs 12–14 billion in lost revenue and Rs 3–5 billion in profit. EBITDA estimates for FY26 and FY27 have been trimmed by 4% and 5%, respectively.

Much of the strain comes from the new pilot duty norms imposed by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA), which include stricter limits on weekly rest, night duty, and landings. HSBC stated that “IndiGo, because of its high aircraft utilisation and ultra-lean cost structure, has taken the sharpest hit.”

Still, HSBC maintains confidence in the airline’s recovery, citing that “its cost advantage remains unmatched, peers are not expanding aggressively, and network depth is still a moat.”

Further, domestic brokerage firm Emkay Global echoed similar optimism.

While acknowledging “IndiGo’s ongoing operational disruption,” the brokerage has retained its Buy rating with a target price of Rs 6,300 — representing a potential upside of 28.6% from the recent price of Rs 4,898.95.

The brokerage said, “IndiGo is targeting normalization from December 10,” while cautioning that the situation “remains fluid, with the DGCA probe underway and further regulatory action pending.”

Emkay highlighted that the operational reset, which involved the cancellation of over 1,600 flights on December 5 alone, had a cascading impact on operations. Nevertheless, the brokerage retained its previous guidance of a 12–13% YoY growth in ASK (Available Seat Kilometers), with RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) seen at 11–12%.

While recent volatility could moderate PRASK (Passenger Revenue per ASK) guidance, Emkay remains constructive, citing “IndiGo’s strong positioning in the Indian aviation market and the expectation of operational normalization post-crisis.”

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(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

India’s largest airline IndiGo reported a profit of Rs 2,499 crore in October-December period- 18 % lower than Rs 2,998 crore during the corresponding period last year as a depreciating rupee played spoilsport in an otherwise strong quarter. Excluding the impact of currency fluctuation the company reported a profit of Rs 3,850 crore, 26% higher than a year ago.

The October-December period is usually the best for Indian airlines as the festive followed by the wedding season and year-end travels drive up demand for air transport.

“We have delivered exceptional third quarter results and there were several driving forces that have led to this- a substantial growth in demand for air travel, continuation of strategic expansion across markets and an enhanced operational performance fueled by the festive period,” IndiGo CEO Pieter Elbers said.

Elbers said that he expects the demand to continue despite a slowdown in other consumer sectors. The airline will increase its capacity by 20% in the ongoing quarter.

The airline, he said, had 90 % seats full for the last two months and carried a record 10 million customers in November.

“We serve first time flyers, quite a lot of them, but we also serve the corporate markets. So in all these segments actually we see a very healthy demand,” he said.IndiGo’s revenue in the quarter grew 13.7% to Rs 22,110.70 crore as compared to last year. Yields, a metric for profitability, fell 1% year-over-year to Rs 5.43 rupees per kilometre as unit cost increased by 10 % as the airline has been facing expense on grounded planes due to faulty Pratt & Whitney engines which till last quarter had led to over 70 planes being parked.IndiGo also had to compensate the fall in capacity with short term leasing of planes which are costlier.

To soften the impact of currency fluctuation, the airline has decided to hedge its foreign currency outflow, Chief Financial Officer Gaurav Negi said adding that more expansion on international routes also acts as a natural hedge against such fluctuation.

“We expect the natural hedges to also improve on the cost side, as the global fuel prices went down by more than 20% on a year over year basis and fuel costs also reduced by 16%,” Negi said.

He also said that the airline has successfully tackled the grounding situations which will reduce to around 40 by April.

While Nifty ended with week-on-week gains of 1.6%, it was laden with top action where over three dozen companies from large, mid and smallcap segments witnessed prominent block deals worth Rs 43,068 crore on screen which included both buying and selling action.

In the large cap segment, 15 companies witnessed significant block deals on the screen which were worth Rs 34,345 crore led by HDFC Bank with 528 block counts totalling to Rs 19,131 crore. The next in line were Interglobe Aviation (Indigo, Rs 12,033 crore), Trent (Rs 569 crore), Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M, Rs 317 crore), Kotak Mahindra Bank (Rs 293 crore), ICICI Bank (Rs 292 crore) and Grasim Industries (Rs 255 crore).

Others were Avenue Supermarts (DMart), Jio Financial Services, Infosys, Hero MotoCorp , Tata Power, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, NTPC and Larsen & Toubro (L&T) with block deals between Rs 240 crore and Rs 121 crore.

The data has been compiled by brokerage firm Nuvama and pertains to deals done this week between 8:45 am and 3:30 pm.

Source: Nuvama

In the midcap segment, a dozen companies witnessed prominent block deals on the screen which were worth Rs 5,694 crore. The leader in the pack was PB Fintech (Policybazaar) with the deal size amounting to Rs 1,713 crore followed by Tata Technologies (Rs 1,284 crore), AU Small Finance Bank (Rs 911 crore) and Star Health Insurance (Rs 429 crore). The others were Gland Pharma, GMR Airports Infrastructure, Vodafone Idea, Dixon Technologies, Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL), Gujarat Fluorochemicals, MPhasiS and SKF India which saw deals between Rs 361 crore and 91 crore.

Source: Nuvama

As for the smallcap stocks, block deals worth Rs 3,029 crore were struck in 12 companies. The number one spot went to Medplus Health (Rs 905 crore) followed by GMM Pfaudler (Rs 557 crore) and Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences (Rs 392 crore). The others were Aavas Financiers, Rolex Rings, Electronics Mart, Amber Enterprises, Chola Financial, Kesoram Industries, Manappuram Finance, Welspun Enterprises and Hindustan Copper which saw deals between Rs 336 crore and 62 crore.

Source: Nuvama

Nuvama also reported prominent bulk, block and insider deals in 12 stocks with details of buyers and sellers. Among them were Tata Technologies which sold shares worth Rs 1,230 crore while Copthall Mauritius (406 crore) and Ghisallo Master (Rs 316 crore) were buyers.

In Trent, Dodona Holdings sold shares worth Rs 470 crore while Siddhartha Yog bought shares in equal measure.

Medplus Health, Au Small Finance, Welspun Living, Gmm Pfaudler, KIMS, Aavas Financiers, Electronics Mart, Wonder Electricals and Rolex Rings were others which saw prominent bulk, block and insider deals with details of buyers and sellers.

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(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)