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		<title>&#8216;Big Short&#8217; investor Steve Eisman worries &#8216;everybody is coming into the year feeling too good,&#8217; sees room for disappointment</title>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Jan 2024 12:02:51 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[Investor Steve Eisman of &#8220;The Big Short&#8221; fame is questioning the level of bullishness on Wall Street — even with the market&#8217;s tepid start to the year. From enthusiasm surrounding the &#8220;Magnificent Seven&#8221; technology stocks to expectations for multiple interest rate cuts this year, Eisman believes there&#8217;s little tolerance for things going wrong. &#8220;Long term, [&#8230;]]]></description>
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<p>Investor Steve Eisman of &#8220;The Big Short&#8221; fame is questioning the level of bullishness on Wall Street — even with the market&#8217;s tepid start to the year.</p>
<p>From enthusiasm surrounding the &#8220;Magnificent Seven&#8221; technology stocks to expectations for multiple interest rate cuts this year, Eisman believes there&#8217;s little tolerance for things going wrong.</p>
<p>&#8220;Long term, I&#8217;m still very bullish. But near term I just worry that everybody is coming into the year feeling too good,&#8221; the Neuberger Berman senior portfolio manager told CNBC&#8217;s &#8220;Fast Money&#8221; on Tuesday.</p>
<p>On the year&#8217;s first day of trading, the tech-heavy <span class="QuoteInBody-quoteNameContainer" data-test="QuoteInBody" id="NewsShowArticle-QuoteInBody-4">Nasdaq<span class="QuoteInBody-inlineButton"><span class="AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistContainer" id="-WatchlistDropdown" data-analytics-id="-WatchlistDropdown"><button class="AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistButton" aria-label="Add To Watchlist" data-testid="dropdown-btn"><span class="AddToWatchlistButton-addWatchListFromTag"/></button></span></span></span> fell 1.6% percent, the <span class="QuoteInBody-quoteNameContainer" data-test="QuoteInBody" id="NewsShowArticle-QuoteInBody-5">S&amp;P 500<span class="QuoteInBody-inlineButton"><span class="AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistContainer" id="-WatchlistDropdown" data-analytics-id="-WatchlistDropdown"><button class="AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistButton" aria-label="Add To Watchlist" data-testid="dropdown-btn"><span class="AddToWatchlistButton-addWatchListFromTag"/></button></span></span></span> fell 0.6%, and the <span class="QuoteInBody-quoteNameContainer" data-test="QuoteInBody" id="NewsShowArticle-QuoteInBody-6">Dow<span class="QuoteInBody-inlineButton"><span class="AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistContainer" id="-WatchlistDropdown" data-analytics-id="-WatchlistDropdown"><button class="AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistButton" aria-label="Add To Watchlist" data-testid="dropdown-btn"><span class="AddToWatchlistButton-addWatchListFromTag"/></button></span></span></span> eked out a gain. The major indexes are coming off a historically strong year: The Nasdaq rallied 43%, while the S&amp;P 500 soared 24%. The 30-stock Dow was up nearly 14% in 2023.</p>
<p>&#8220;The market climbed a wall of worry the whole year. So, now here we are a year later, and everybody including me has a pretty benign view of the economy,&#8221; Eisman said. &#8220;It&#8217;s just that everybody is coming into the year so bullish that if there are any disappointments, you know, what&#8217;s going to hold the market up?&#8221;</p>
<p>Eisman notes that fewer rate hikes than expected in 2024 could emerge as a negative short-term catalyst. The Federal Reserve has penciled in three rate cuts this year, while fed funds futures pricing suggests even more trimming. Eisman thinks these expectations are too aggressive.</p>
<p>&#8220;The Fed is still petrified of making the mistake that [former Fed Chief Paul] Volcker made in the early &#8217;80s where he stopped raising rates, and inflation got out of control again,&#8221; said Eisman. &#8220;If I&#8217;m the Fed and I&#8217;m looking at the Volcker lesson, I say to myself &#8216;What&#8217;s my rush? Inflation has come in.'&#8221;</p>
<p>Yet, Eisman suggests it&#8217;s still a wait-and-see situation.</p>
<p>&#8220;If you had to lay your life on the line, I&#8217;d say one [cut] unless there&#8217;s a recession. If there&#8217;s no recession, I don&#8217;t see any reason why the Fed needs to be aggressive at cutting rates,&#8221; he said. &#8220;If I&#8217;m in [Fed chief Jerome] Powell&#8217;s seat, I pat myself on the back and say &#8216;job well done.'&#8221;</p>
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<h2 class="ArticleBody-subtitle"><a id="headline0"/>&#8216;Housing stocks are justified&#8217;</h2>
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<p>Eisman, who&#8217;s known for predicting the 2007-2008 housing market collapse and profiting from it, appears to be warming up to homebuilding stocks.</p>
<p>The investor said on &#8220;Fast Money&#8221; in October it was a group he was avoiding. The <span class="QuoteInBody-quoteNameContainer" data-test="QuoteInBody" id="NewsShowArticle-QuoteInBody-9">SPDR S&amp;P Homebuilders ETF<span class="QuoteInBody-inlineButton"><span class="AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistContainer" id="-WatchlistDropdown" data-analytics-id="-WatchlistDropdown"><button class="AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistButton" aria-label="Add To Watchlist" data-testid="dropdown-btn"><span class="AddToWatchlistButton-addWatchListFromTag"/></button></span></span></span>, which tracks the group, is up 25% since that interview and 57% over the past 52 weeks.</p>
<p>&#8220;The housing stocks are justified in the sense that the homebuilders have great balance sheets. They&#8217;re able to buy down rates to their customers, so that the customers can afford to buy new homes,&#8221; he said. &#8220;There&#8217;s a shortage of new homes.&#8221;</p>
<p>However, Eisman skips housing among his top 2024 top plays. He particularly likes areas of <span class="QuoteInBody-quoteNameContainer" data-test="QuoteInBody" id="NewsShowArticle-QuoteInBody-10">technology<span class="QuoteInBody-inlineButton"><span class="AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistContainer" id="-WatchlistDropdown" data-analytics-id="-WatchlistDropdown"><button class="AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistButton" aria-label="Add To Watchlist" data-testid="dropdown-btn"><span class="AddToWatchlistButton-addWatchListFromTag"/></button></span></span></span> and infrastructure.</p>
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