Crypto traders are showing high levels of fear, and some analysts say that could set the stage for a rebound. According to Santiment, social chatter about Bitcoin is split evenly between bullish and bearish.

Ether, meanwhile, has just over 50% more bullish than bearish comments, but that is still below its usual volume of positive talk. Santiment added that less than half of social posts about XRP are bullish, calling it one of the most “fearful moments of 2025” for that token.

Source: Alernative.me

Trader Fear Fuels Buy Opportunities

Santiment and other data providers point to extreme pessimism across the market. Based on reports, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index returned a score of 15 out of 100 on Thursday, a reading labeled “extreme fear” and the lowest since March.

Joe Consorti, head of Bitcoin growth at Horizon, said current sentiment mirrors the mood in 2022 when Bitcoin traded around $18,000. Fear is high. Many investors have pulled back.

Traders’ moods are fading toward crypto, which is welcomed news for the patient.

Bitcoin $BTC: Even bullish/bearish ratio of social media comments (significantly lower than usual)
Ethereum $ETH: Just over 50% more bullish vs. bearish comments (less than usual)
XRP… pic.twitter.com/ZY9RXUxKDK

— Santiment (@santimentfeed) November 12, 2025

Crypto Capitulation Can Precede A Rally

Some market watchers see the squeeze of weak hands as a buying window. According to Santiment, when retail selling peaks, larger holders often absorb the coins that are liquidated, and prices can be pushed upward afterward.

Samson Mow, founder of Jan3, has argued that the sellers now are mostly newer buyers who entered over the last year and are taking profits, while long-term holders are stacking more Bitcoin.

This view suggests selling pressure could be temporary and that accumulation by committed holders may be setting up a rebound.

Completely wild.

F&G Index at $18,000 → 20
F&G Index at $100k → 20 pic.twitter.com/SNS1bqhx68

— Joe Consorti (@JoeConsorti) November 12, 2025

Social Mood And On-Chain Signals

Public sentiment is just one piece of the picture. Based on reports from Glassnode and others, key on-chain indicators are showing patterns similar to past drawdowns, yet supply held by long-term addresses remains meaningful.

October added to the uneasy backdrop after it ended with the largest market liquidation since the pandemic, wiping out billions within hours.

Markets were also shaken by comments from US President Donald Trump about 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, which revived global trade fears and fed volatility.

Bitcoin trading at $103,656 on the 24-hour chart: TradingView

Technical Warnings Versus Seasonal Tailwinds

Technically, Bitcoin recently flashed its fourth “death cross,” a bearish signal that has on past occasions been followed by extended weakness. That is a clear warning. But historical seasonal data still leans positive for year-end.

Data from Coinglass shows Bitcoin finished six of the past eight Decembers higher, with gains ranging from 8% to 45%. So while caution is reasonable given current signals, there is a statistical pattern that traders will watch as the year closes.

What Traders Might Expect Next

Based on the mix of sour sentiment, on-chain buyer behavior, and historical seasonality, the market could experience a swift move if retail capitulation slows and larger players step in. That move may look sudden. It could also unfold gradually, depending on macro headlines and liquidity flows.

For now, the mood is rather gloomy and the numbers are stark for crypto. Yet a shift in who is holding coins might be the trigger that changes price action before the year ends.

Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView

The Nifty 50 and Sensex rose 8.8% and 8.2%, respectively, this year, logging their ninth straight year of gains, mostly on support from domestic institutional investors and policy continuity after India’s ruling party returned to power.

The benchmarks rose about 21% each to hit record highs on Sept. 27. They slipped into correction territory – a 10% drop from all-time high levels – in November, hurt by record monthly foreign selling in October and a moderation in earnings growth.

The blue-chips are still in correction territory.

This decline resulted in the benchmarks underperforming the Nasdaq Composite, Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, Nikkei 225 and Shanghai Composite, which advanced 12%-32% this year.

However, inflows into equity mutual funds more than doubled year-on-year to a record high of 3.53 trillion rupees ($41.23 billion), cushioning some of the volatility in foreign flows.

Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) remained net buyers for the year as of Dec. 30, adding stocks worth 20.26 billion rupees. Lofty stock valuations, earnings pressures and macroeconomic challenges resulted in domestic equities underperforming some global markets, said Nikhil Rungta, chief investment officer of equity at LIC Mutual Fund AMC. The smallcaps and midcaps gained about 24% each in 2024, outperforming the benchmarks for the second straight year as domestic investors and mutual funds piled on due to the return potential in these segments.

“From here on, action in small and midcaps will get very stock-specific, dictated by earnings over the next two quarters, which will have to justify lofty valuations,” said Krishna Appala, senior research analyst at Capitalmind Research.

The Federal Reserve’s outlook for fewer interest rate cuts, which could trigger further foreign outflows from developing countries including India, and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed policies will be major factors for emerging markets in 2025, according to analysts.

Among stocks, Reliance Industries, the second-heaviest stock in the benchmark indexes, dropped 6%, posting its worst year since 2011 on weaker earnings in the last two quarters.

Asian Paints lost about 33%, its worst ever annual performance, hurt by weak earnings and rising competition.

Trent, a retailer, gained about 133%, the most among Nifty 50 stocks, helped by stable earnings till the September quarter.

Among sectors, the pharma index was the top sectoral performer, jumping 39%, aided by steady sales growth in domestic and U.S. markets as well as stable pricing in the U.S.

($1 = 85.6150 Indian rupees)

Sales at Hermes rose briskly in the third quarter, beating expectations and outshining rivals as economic headwinds did not its stop its wealthy clientele from splurging on high-end Birkin handbags.

Sales for the three months to the end of September stood at 3.37 billion euros ($3.60 billion), a 15.6% rise at constant exchange rates, beating a Visible Alpha consensus for 14% growth. Sales were brisk in all regions, particularly the U.S.

Analysts have cut their estimates for the luxury sector in recent weeks following a sales report from bellwether LVMH earlier this month showing shoppers are splashing out less on high-end fashion as inflation and economic uncertainty rise.

But Hermes, which caters to shoppers who can afford handbags like the coveted $10,000 plus Birkin model, has a reputation of weathering economic turbulence better than rivals.

“Despite an uncertain context, our outlook remains unchanged,” Eric du Halgouet, Hermes executive vice president finance, told journalists, noting strong growth in the U.S. and Asia, including China.

Sales in the Americas rose 20%, despite smaller price hikes than in other parts of the world, with even growth rates on both U.S. coasts, Hermes said. The Madison Avenue store in New York, which opened in October last year, also contributed strongly.

In Europe, sales grew 18.1%, with Du Halgouet noting no sign of a slowdown in tourist traffic in the region, and no slowdown in France, including in the first weeks of October. “We are attentive,” said Du Halgouet, noting an uncertain geopolitical context could affect tourism.

Store traffic continued to rise strongly in mainland China, with a strong bounceback in business in July and August, and an acceleration in the third quarter.

“This is a homogenous progression across all geographies and product categories,” said Bernstein analyst Luca Solca.

“It confirms our idea that higher exposure to quality names is the most appropriate course of action for investors in a moderating market where the sector has corrected.”

Hermes has raised prices by around 7% this year globally to account for higher production costs, with the exception of the U.S., where increases were around 3%, and Japan, where they were in the double digits due to currency fluctuations.