In a survey of oil and gas executives conducted by the Dallas Fed, which covers the prolific Permian Basin, they signaled that supply will not change much.

When asked how much they expect U.S. oil production to increase in response to the Iran war, 30% predicted no change this year, 43% saw an uptick ranging from 1 to 250,000 barrels per day, and 17% put it at 250,000-500,000. Only 1% said they see more than 1 million of additional output.

The outlook was more bullish for 2027, with 24% seeing no change in production, 26% expecting an increase of 1-250,000, and 32% predicting a boost of 250,000-500,000. Still, just 2% anticipate more than 1 million.

For comparison, Goldman Sachs has estimated that Persian Gulf crude output is down by 14.5 million barrels per day, or 57%, from before the Iran war started.

The reluctance of U.S. companies to pump more oil comes despite West Texas Intermediate futures soaring from $57 a barrel at the start of the year to $111 at the height of the war and just below $100 during the past week.

The Dallas Fed survey also tracks with an earlier one it conducted last month that showed half of exploration and production executives said the number of wells their firms expect to drill in 2026 has not changed, and 26% saw only a slight increase.

Comments collected anonymously by the latest report revealed that the extreme volatility in prices recently had created too much uncertainty, dampening capital spending views.

“Even after nearly a month of oil above $90 per barrel, rig counts declined, signaling little confidence that prices will hold,” one respondent said. “Closing the supply gap from the Iran conflict will require greater certainty and higher 2027 future prices to incentivize additional rig and frack deployments.”

Another noted that “with all of the chaos, predicting anything in the energy sector is very difficult.”

Executives also appeared to refer to President Donald Trump’s habit of using social media to jawbone energy prices lower and stock markets higher.

That’s as Wall Street has emerged as a notable check on his policies as previous selloffs have prompted him to back off from his most punitive tariff rates.

“The difference between the gyration of paper market oil prices versus what seems to be substantially higher physical prices sends conflicting signals to operators who cannot plan rigs and capital budgets when prices swing wildly based on tweets,” an oil boss said. “Our hypothesis is [that] the paper market is being manipulated. This will likely lead to an even worse supply and demand imbalance and higher prices in the medium term (next 12 months).”

A respondent in the oilfield services sector complained that “Uncertainty is problematic in the oil and gas business, and this administration is the definition of uncertainty.”

A peer echoed that remark, saying “The unpredictable nature of the current administration makes business modeling near impossible.”

Dallas Fed

With millions of barrels bottled up in the Persian Gulf, a wave of tankers from around the world is racing toward the Gulf of Mexico to load up on U.S. oil.

But that still won’t be enough to offset the shortfall from Mideast supplies, and shortages have been creeping into parts of Asia and Europe.

Energy experts have been warning oil futures are totally disconnected from the reality that exists in the physical market. But Paul Sankey, president of Sankey Research, warned a reckoning is unavoidable and imminent.

He pointed out that pre-war oil shipments via tankers from the Persian Gulf have only now reached their destinations. So with the Strait of Hormuz largely closed off for more than 40 days, the lack of new supplies can no longer be ignored.

As fresh inflows of Middle East oil have dried up, countries are tapping their reserves, and the inventory numbers have “started to get scary,” Sankey told Bloomberg TV on Thursday.

In fact, it’s guaranteed the situation will get worse, he warned, unlike typical attempts to make oil market forecasts, which can turn out very wrong due to extraneous reasons.

“In this case, we can be sure that the next two months is going to be an ongoing, absolute disaster even if you open the straits tomorrow because it’s just locked in by virtue of tankers, and the tankers are all in the wrong places,” Sankey explained.

Similarly, analysts at JPMorgan said in a note Tuesday that commercial inventories in OECD countries will hit “operational minimums” sometime between May 9 and May 30, “at which point price increases become exponential rather than linear.”

And after the war ends, the oil supply chain needs time to restart. Ports will take two months to reopen, and tanker crews will wait two to three weeks to feel safe enough to travel through the strait again. JPMorgan also estimated reviving oil production will take four months to reach 99% of capacity.

Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquified natural gas passed before the war, will not be viewed the same way again.

“The administration’s comment about an ‘Iran terror premium’ existing for decades with crude oil pricing is laughable,” an oil chief told the Dallas Fed. “But now the administration has created one where it did not exist before.”

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Ethereum may have bounced back above the $2,100 price level once again, but it is still far away from its recent all-time high of $4,900. Even with ETH falling this hard from its recent high, big companies are still adopting the leading altcoin, and Bitmine Immersion is demonstrating this institutional demand.

Bitmine Adds More Ethereum Amid Turbulent Conditions

Despite ongoing market turbulence, popular company Bitmine Immersion is pressing forward with its crypto expansion strategy, acquiring more Ethereum into its portfolio. The behavior suggests that the firm is leaning into volatility rather than withdrawing from it, indicating conviction in Ethereum’s long-term prospects.

According to the report from CryptoRus, the firm made another purchase of roughly 50,900 ETH, bringing its total holdings to about 4.47 million ETH. After the recent purchase, Bitmine immersion now holds roughly 3.7% of all circulating supply, making it one of the biggest holders of the altcoin across the sector. 

This is not a small treasury bet. Tom Lee, the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Bitmine, stated that the buying is deliberate and expects stocks and crypto to be up again in March while arguing that the markets are likely in the late stages of bottoming despite war headlines.

CryptoRus highlighted that these moves by Bitmine are a clear positioning, possibly ahead of a major upward move. With hundreds of millions in cash on hand, BitMine continues to accumulate ETH, viewing the decline as a chance rather than a red flag.

Although this indicates how at least one sizable, experienced player is interpreting this stage of the cycle, it does not ensure short-term price direction. When treasury buyers step in during a period of weakness, it often implies that the companies are ignoring the noise or FUD and are gearing up for the next leg.

ETH’s Price In Alignment With Bitcoin’s

On the 1-day timeframe, Ethereum’s price is currently following Bitcoin’s move higher in addition to the formation of the white bullish triangle scenario. In the past, it was assumed that even if one more low had developed, it would have probably been the last low in the structure. However, More Crypto Online stated that it has become less relevant with the current price action, and that possibility was present in the yellow scenario.

From here, the price can always go lower, but the key point of the bearish triangle required a break of support, which never occurred. Rather, the indication that the market was moving higher has been removed. A B-wave rally was still anticipated, even in the alternate scenario that permitted one more low.

Like Bitcoin, Ethereum has been monitoring the possibility of a bigger B-wave rally on the longer period, and it now seems to be taking place. However, the structure remains fragile and does not necessarily mark the beginning of a sustained impulsive rally. Thus, the expert noted that this move should be treated in terms of probabilities rather than certainty.

After resistance was broken, the short-term negative scenario that had been indicated on the chart was eliminated. Currently, the price is trying to break above the top limit of the range at $2,150.

Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview.com

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Day four of the flight restrictions saw airlines scrap over 2,100 flights Monday after cancelling 5,500 from Friday to Sunday. Some air traffic controllers — unpaid for more than a month — have stopped showing up, citing the added stress and need to take second jobs.

President Donald Trump pressured controllers Monday on social media to “get back to work, NOW!!!” He said he wants a $10,000 bonus for controllers who’ve stayed on the job and to dock the pay of those who didn’t.

The head of the controllers union said they’re being used as a “political pawn” in the fight over the shutdown.

Controller shortages combined with wintry weather led to four-hour delays at Chicago O’Hare International Airport on Monday, with the FAA warning that staffing at more than a dozen towers and control centers could cause disruptions in cities including Philadelphia, Nashville and Atlanta.

The Senate on Monday was nearing a vote to end the shutdown although it would still need to clear the House and final passage could still be days away. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy made clear last week that flight cuts will remain until the FAA sees safety metrics improve.

Over the weekend, airlines canceled thousands of flights to comply with the order to drop 4% of flights at 40 of the nation’s busiest airports. That will rise to 6% on Tuesday and 10% by week’s end, the FAA says.

Already, travelers are growing angry.

“All of this has real negative consequences for millions of Americans, and it’s 100% unnecessary and avoidable,” said Todd Walker, whose flight from San Francisco to Washington state was canceled over the weekend, causing him to miss his mom’s 80th birthday party.

One out of every 10 flights nationwide were scratched Sunday — the fourth worst day for cancellations in almost two years, according aviation analytics firm Cirium.

The FAA expanded flight restrictions Monday, barring business jets and many private flights from using a dozen airports already under commercial flight limits.

Airports nationwide have seen intermittent delays since the shutdown began because the FAA slows air traffic when it’s short on controllers to ensure flights remain safe.

The shutdown has made controllers’ demanding jobs even more stressful, leading to fatigue and increased risks, said Nick Daniels, president of the National Air Traffic Controllers Association.

“This is the erosion of the safety margin the flying public never sees, but America relies on every single day,” the union chief said at a news conference Monday.

Some controllers can’t afford child care to be able to come to work while others are moonlighting as delivery drivers or even selling plasma to pay their bills, Daniels said. The number who are retiring or quitting is “growing by the day,” he said.

During the six weekends since the shutdown began, the average number of 30 air traffic control facilities had staffing issues. That’s almost four times the number on weekends this year before the shutdown, according to an Associated Press analysis of operations plans sent through the Air Traffic Control System Command Center system.

Tuesday will be the second missed payday for controllers and other FAA employees. It’s unclear how quickly they might be paid once the shutdown ends — it took more than two months to receive full back pay in 2019, Daniels said.

The shutdown and money worries have become regular “dinnertime conversations” for Amy Lark and her husband, both air traffic controllers in the Washington, D.C. area.

“Yesterday, my kids asked me how long we could stay in our house,” Lark said. Still, she said controllers remain “100% committed.”

The government has struggled for years with a shortage of controllers, and Duffy said the shutdown has worsened the problem. Before the shutdown, the transportation secretary had been working to hire more controllers, speed up training and offer retention bonuses.

Duffy warned over the weekend that if the shutdown drags on, air travel may “be reduced to a trickle” by Thanksgiving week.

___

Yamat reported from Las Vegas and Funk from Omaha, Nebraska. Associated Press writers Ken Sweet, Wyatte Grantham-Philips and Michael R. Sisak in New York, Stephen Groves and Kevin Freking in Washington, and John Seewer in Toledo, Ohio, contributed to this report.