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US stocks fell, GIFT Nifty down 300 points and oil nears $100. How will stock market react on Monday?

LSD News Szerkesztőség — Sun, 08 Mar 2026 12:07:53 +0000

Indian equities are likely to open sharply lower on Monday after a turbulent end to the week for global markets, with crude oil prices surging, US stocks falling, and the GIFT Nifty indicating a steep decline at the start of trading. Early signals suggest a negative opening as GIFT Nifty was down nearly 300 points, pointing to a weak start for benchmark indices when trading begins on Dalal Street.

The negative cues follow a sharp selloff on Wall Street on Friday, where all three major US indexes closed lower amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns about the health of the American economy.

The Dow Jones fell nearly 1%, posting its steepest weekly decline since April 2025. The S&P 500 dropped 1.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite slid 1.6%. US markets were unsettled by a disappointing US payrolls report that raised fresh concerns about a cooling labour market at a time when rising energy prices threaten to revive inflation pressures.

The bigger shock, however, came from oil markets.

Crude prices jumped sharply after the United States and Israel carried out military strikes on Iran, escalating the conflict in the region and raising fears of prolonged disruptions to global energy supplies. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil trade, was halted amid the tensions.

US crude futures surged more than 12% to above $90 per barrel on Friday, while Brent crude climbed about 8.5% to around $92. Analysts warn that prices could climb further if the conflict intensifies, with some forecasts pointing to oil potentially moving toward the $100 per barrel mark or higher.

Higher oil prices pose a direct risk to India’s markets and economy, given the country’s heavy dependence on imported crude. Rising energy costs tend to push up inflation, widen the current account deficit and pressure corporate margins across several sectors.The global risk-off mood had already weighed heavily on Indian equities last week.

Benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, fell nearly 3% each during the week, marking their biggest weekly drop in more than a year. The selling was widespread, with 41 of the 50 Nifty stocks ending the week in the red, highlighting the broad-based pressure across sectors.

Financial stocks were among the biggest losers as investors reduced exposure to risk assets amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.

The market’s weakness was also reflected in trading patterns through the week. Out of four sessions, the market declined on three sessions and managed to close higher only once, underscoring the cautious sentiment among investors.

Foreign institutional investors selling and a weakening rupee added to the pressure.

Although the market attempted a brief recovery on Thursday, supported by bargain hunting and slightly improved global cues, the rebound was short-lived. Selling resumed in the final trading session as crude prices surged further and global uncertainty intensified.

Technical indicators now suggest that the market is entering a period of heightened volatility.

Pravesh Gour, senior technical analyst at Swastika Investmart, said the Nifty is currently holding an important support level but remains vulnerable to further declines. “Nifty is taking support near 24,300 but remains highly volatile. On the upside, the 24,900-25,000 range is likely to act as an immediate supply zone where selling pressure could emerge if the index attempts a recovery,” Gour said.

He added that a decisive break below the 24,300 level could trigger further downside. “If the index slips below 24,300, the next important support comes near 23,800, which traders will closely monitor,” he said.

Banking stocks may also remain under pressure. According to Gour, the Bank Nifty is currently trading below its 100-day moving average but finding support near the 200-day average. The index faces immediate resistance near the 59,000-59,500 zone, while a break below 57,500 could extend the decline toward 56,700.

Looking ahead, analysts say the direction of equities will largely depend on three key factors: developments in the Middle East conflict, movements in crude oil prices, and foreign investor flows.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)

Nifty, Bank Nifty face pressure; Rajesh Palviya warns IT may weaken further

LSD News Szerkesztőség — Sat, 27 Sep 2025 13:52:44 +0000

Rajesh Palviya, Axis Securities, shared his outlook on the markets and trading strategies amid heightened volatility. He noted that uncertainty stemming from global cues, particularly comments from US President Trump, has kept investors cautious despite several reform-driven announcements from the Indian government.

According to him, the Nifty has breached crucial support zones, specifically the 61% retracement level of the recent rally near 24,800. This breakdown has pushed the index below both its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. Even though the put-call ratio stands at an oversold level of 0.63, the index has shown no sign of recovery. Adding to the pressure, India VIX climbed to 11.5, reflecting heightened volatility. Sectoral indices that were earlier in an uptrend have also witnessed profit booking.

“Most of the sector indices which were in uptrend have attracted profit booking because of this uncertainty. So, every week if these kind of news flow comes from the US, the market would not be able to attract any sustained buying action and trend is likely to exhibit further on the weaker side,” he said.

A break below 24,500, he warned, could trigger liquidation and drag the index towards 24,350. Conversely, if a pullback emerges, 24,800 may act as the first supply zone, with scope for short-covering if the level is surpassed.

On Bank Nifty, Palviya highlighted that the index has decisively broken its 55,000 support and is now trading closer to 54,500. Sustained trade below this level could extend the decline towards 54,000. For the coming week, he expects Bank Nifty to trade within the 54,000–54,800 range.

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Turning to sectors, he pointed out that IT stocks are under significant pressure. Despite broader market rallies earlier, Nifty IT failed to display bullish momentum. The index has now fallen below 34,000, a critical support on weekly charts, suggesting further downside. The recent H-1B visa-related developments have triggered unwinding of long positions in both largecap and midcap IT names. “Largecap IT stocks are still under pressure. There is no recovery. Most of the stocks have broken their previous swing low also, so which is also showing weakness on the near-term short-term structure,” he said.With the structure still negative, Palviya foresees more weakness, with 33,250 as the next downside level. He advised investors to avoid the IT space for now, as sectors already showing weakness typically recover last in volatile markets.

On stock-specific recommendations, Palviya maintained a bullish stance on Ashok Leyland. The stock has sustained its breakout levels despite market volatility and could advance towards ₹150–152 in the near term, with ₹136 as stop loss. On the short side, he recommended Biocon, which has broken major support zones and slipped below all near-term moving averages. He sees potential downside towards ₹326, advising a stop loss at ₹346.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)

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Nifty seen heading to 25,300 as metals, midcap IT lead: Axis Securities’ Rajesh Palviya

LSD News Szerkesztőség — Sun, 14 Sep 2025 02:18:17 +0000

Indian equities may extend their upward momentum next week, with Nifty heading towards 25,300 and Bank Nifty likely attempting 55,200, said Rajesh Palviya, Senior VP – Technical and Derivatives Research at Axis Securities.

“Nifty managed to give a breakout of the falling trend line on the daily chart and comfortably holding above all its near-term, short-term moving averages,” Palviya said. “Looking at the derivative data, the put base concentration is moved higher, and now major put writing activity has been witnessed at 25,000 strikes. So, it clearly shows that the base is shifting higher.”

He added that call writers are moving positions to higher strikes, suggesting more upside. “So the upward trajectory is now clearly visible towards 25,200 to 25,300 in the continuation of this up move. Till the market is holding above the 25,000 level, there is a high possibility that in the coming week we may see a level of 25,200 to 25,300,” he said.

On Bank Nifty, Palviya noted that the index has crossed a major hurdle at 54,500. “For Bank Nifty also, we believe that till Bank Nifty is able to sustain above 54,500, there is a high possibility that we may attempt to cross 55,000 and 55,200,” he said.

Palviya believes midcap IT stocks offer a better near-term opportunity compared to largecaps. “If anybody wants to play out in the IT space, the midcap space would deliver a good amount of return from here onward as near-term structures are improving,” he said. For Infosys, he flagged Rs 1,550 as a key level that could trigger short covering and lead to a move towards Rs 1,580–1,600.

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On metals, Palviya sees further gains in Hindustan Zinc and National Aluminium. His top trading picks for the week are Samvardhana Motherson (target Rs 111, stop-loss Rs 101) and Bajaj Finserv (target Rs 2,150, stop-loss Rs 2,055).Also Read: Will Sebi end weekly expiry? Here’s what Chairman Tuhin Kanta Pandey said after board meeting

“First stock is Samvardhana Motherson, very strong breakout on the weekly chart and the way the stock has attracted the long build-up up we believe that here we could see further traction on the buying side. We are projecting a target, on the downside, 101 should be kept as a stop loss. Other stock is Bajaj Finserv, which managed to give a breakout of its multiple supply zones on the weekly chart,” he said.

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