They say politics and religion should not be discussed in polite conversation. But for some people, that might be a tough rule to follow—after all, they’re leaving the country because of the U.S. presidential election.
Business is booming for firms that specialize in relocating U.S. citizens to countries like Canada and Europe.
While an influx of relocation inquiries is expected at any point in a political cycle, such companies have been inundated with requests since the Trump vs. Biden debate in particular.
A barometer for when Americans become eager to leave their country is easy to come by, courtesy of Google Trends.
Searches from U.S. users for ‘move to Canada’, ‘move to Italy’ and ‘move to Portugal’ all spiked (you guessed it) overnight from June 27 to 28—the evening of the presidential debate.
Similar peaks in traffic for these search terms occurred in November 2020—when President Biden was elected—with the biggest spike occurring when President Trump was elected in 2016.
But while the reaction of this election cycle was expected by companies that specialize in relocation, they’re warning individuals that the process isn’t as straightforward as it once was.
Gun legislation and Roe vs. Wade among the issues
For many Americans, the closest thing to home is just across the border in Canada.
The only problem for ex-pats hoping to relocate to their neighbor in the north is that it seems like everyone has had the same idea.
Montreal-based immigration experts Moving2Canada saw inquiries spike in 2016 and 2020—and 2024 is no different, with a tripling in volume since the Trump vs. Biden debate.
Many inquiries are from skilled workers—those who need a post-secondary degree of education to qualify for their work—looking to leave the U.S. before they are forced to by a potential change in immigration policy.
But Moving2Canada operations manager Rebecca Major told Fortune that other policies are also cited by both families and individuals as reasons to move.
Gun legislation and Roe vs. Wade are among the reasons Major often hears, and she explained: “In general, people become disheartened that they don’t see themselves reflected in who’s running their country, and they look to something that has been seen as very similar to their own country.”
While Major and her colleagues were prepared for the floodgates to open, she warned potential ex-pats that they also needed to have their affairs in order.
Canada’s immigration system has changed “substantially” since 2016, Major said, adding: “People just assume that if you work in the U.S., Canada is automatically an option for you and that’s definitely not the case anymore. It’s highly competitive.
“My advice to anyone looking to make the move would be to research early because what you’ll find if, say, Trump comes into power, there’s going to be a huge amount of interest.”
And she advises potential emigrants to speak to their employers. “See if they have a branch in Canada. That could be the best route.”
“If you could live anywhere, why would you choose the US now?”
In Florence, Italy, Alex Ingrim of Chase Buchanan USA says enquiries for his private wealth management services have leapt by around a third since the debate, and the majority of his clients follow through with their plans.
Ingrim specializes in bringing U.S. nationals to Spain, Portugal, Italy and France, working with around 70 clients across a $70 million portfolio.
While politics play a part in the decision by some of his clients—usually between the ages of 45 and 65—to leave the U.S., Ingrim cautions individuals against leaving home purely for this reason.
“We’re not hearing about specific policies, we’re hearing about the environment and the atmosphere. We’re hearing about how contentious everything is and how tired people are of the 24/7 news cycle,” Ingrim said.
“The political environment has deteriorated people’s quality of life. It’s not just that the cost of living has got more expensive… it’s also that if you’re no longer working and you could choose to live anywhere in the world, why would you choose to live in the U.S. now? This is really the first generation that’s confronted that reality.”
Since Ingrim, an American, launched the Texas-headquartered company with a partner two years ago, he’s had inquiries from Democrats and Republicans in equal measure.
“We expected it to be a busy year… Americans have this habit of threatening to move to Canada if their candidate doesn’t win—this precedes Trump by decades,” Ingrim said.
“There’s always been this undercurrent, but we’re not very well-traveled people, so it never became a reality. But more people have been open to retiring abroad since the pandemic, then the dominance that Trump had established… it became clear after the debate, after the assassination attempt, that Trump had a path to victory.”
Ingrim added that recent inquiries aren’t purely spurred by one political event or another, but political events have quickened individuals’ plans to retire abroad.
Fellow Americans do, however, need to be aware that the U.S. is “one of one”, and that “nobody else in the world” runs their nation like the States.
As a result, he says, expats can sometimes struggle with the slower pace of relocation applications and should be prepared for bureaucracy.
Ultra-rich are on the move
The impetus to leave the States is also at an “all-time high” for high net worth and ultra-high net worth individuals, said Grahame Salt, director of Homes of Quality at the Frank Salt Real Estate Group.
The agency specializes in properties in Malta, which has an attractively low income tax rate compared to its neighbors.
Malta’s highest tax rate is 35%—10% lower than the UK’s 45% for example—with foreign income being sent into Malta taxed at a flat 15%.
Ex-pats looking to enjoy the balmy Southern European nation can also expect to find an ample group of peers, courtesy of minimum investments to earn citizenship in the country.
To earn citizenship via property, for example, an individual must spend at least €700,000 ($760,095) and retain it for five years, or for residence, after 12 months, invest at least €750,000 ($814,387) in the nation.
“With elections looming it seems [HNW and UHNW individuals] are motivated to have a Plan B,” Salt told Fortune. “Other drivers are wealth management as many people feel the U.S. economy doesn’t have a very bright future. Therefore, wealthy Americans want to diversify their portfolio and invest into a Euro market.”
Interest from Americans isn’t just retired couples but also families looking to relocate their children. And across the income spectrum, politics is highlighted as the key reason for wanting to move.
Salt said: “The increasing polarity in U.S. politics has been at the heart of these discussions. Some clients are scared stiff of Trump coming into power, and some [are scared] of the Biden administration. The recent debates haven’t helped at all in providing them with the confidence they wanted.”
U.S. visits to the group’s website have steadily increased in recent months to be the company’s third-largest traffic source, with Salt adding: “I would say the third largest driver is the increasing crime rate in the U.S., gun violence and the inadequacy of law enforcement.”
Are you planning to leave the U.S. because of political or policy reasons? Email eleanor.pringle@fortune.com.
