Major airlines and millions of travelers across the United States face a rare convergence of challenges this spring that together are making it both costlier and less convenient to fly.
The Department of Homeland Security’s partial shutdown has created staffing shortages at domestic airport security checkpoints. Meanwhile, the Iran war has driven up jet fuel costs and forced many global carriers to reroute or suspend flights over the Middle East.
In America, the busiest spring break week of the year kicked off Sunday, just days after tens of thousands of Transportation Security Administration workers who conduct airport screenings missed their first full paychecks of the DHS shutdown — with no end in sight for the funding lapse.
Federal airport security workers are considered “essential employees” during government shutdowns, so they are required to report to work even if they’re not being paid.
More than 300 TSA workers have quit since the partial government shutdown began Feb. 14, the agency announced. At the same time, the number of employees calling out sick has more than doubled at several major airports, a senior TSA official confirmed.
As a result, travelers are experiencing hourslong security lines at airports nationwide, and social media is flooded with videos of TSA screening lines that fill up entire terminals.
Meanwhile, the Iran war and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz off Iran are driving up the price of oil worldwide and causing a surge in the cost of jet fuel.
On Friday, the spot price of a gallon of jet fuel was $3.99, roughly double the price at this time last year, according to the Argus U.S. Jet Fuel Index. A Boeing 747 burns about 60 gallons of fuel per minute, or roughly 10,000 gallons for a three-hour flight, according to the aviation news site Simple Flying.
The fuel price spike is testing the ability of airlines around the world to absorb financial shock and respond quickly to rapidly evolving situations.
“Airlines can accept lower profits or raise their fares, and I expect that they would do a bit of both. So consumers will feel the Iran war’s oil price hike not only at the gas pump, but also in the airfares they pay,” said Jan Brueckner, economics professor emeritus at the University of California, Irvine.
To keep up with rising costs, some airlines are already increasing ticket prices and adding fuel surcharges. Air New Zealand was one of the first to announce that its ticket prices would go up. The airline also suspended its 2026 earnings guidance because of the volatility in jet fuel markets.
Cathay Pacific Airways has announced that it plans to double its fuel surcharge on all tickets starting Wednesday. For many of the airline’s routes, the carrier’s current fuel surcharge of $72.90 will rise to $149.20 beginning later this week.
Other airlines making changes include Hong Kong Airlines, IAG, Qantas Airways, SAS, Thai Airways and Vietnam Airlines, according to Reuters.
Unlike European and Asian air carriers, most major U.S. airlines don’t hedge their fuel costs or lock in prices using futures.
“For airlines, it’s about their appetite for risk, their comfort level on hedging. And if they don’t hedge, then obviously they have to find another way to recover their costs,” said Louise Burke, Argus Media’s renewables and aviation senior vice president.
The cost of jet fuel is the single largest expense for most major airlines, accounting for around 30% of total expenses, according to analysts at Deutsche Bank.
“Absent near-term relief, airlines around the world could be forced to ground thousands of aircraft while some of the industry’s financially weakest carriers could halt operations,” Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Linenberg wrote in a recent research note.
In a speech at Harvard University this month, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby also warned that surging jet fuel prices could push airline ticket prices higher.
The average ticket price for last-minute domestic flights on March 6 was higher for most U.S. airlines week-over-week, except at Spirit Airlines and American Airlines, according to Deutsche Bank. The increases ranged from 0.4% to 13.6%.
For tickets purchased in advance, the price to fly on March 27 increased week-over-week. Spirit’s fare spiked the most, at 124.3%, while other airlines’ fares rose anywhere from 14.8% to 56.7%, the Deutsche Bank analysts reported.
Delta Airlines declined to comment on fuel prices, and both American and Spirit didn’t reply to NBC News’ requests for comment. A Southwest Airlines spokesperson directed NBC News to the company’s 2025 financial results.
On Tuesday, several U.S. airline CEOs are scheduled to update investors at the J.P. Morgan Industrials Conference in Washington.
As for whether now is a good time to buy airfare and plan trips, experts say the future is still too uncertain to predict what will happen next.
“The issue becomes how long the conflict will continue and how long the dislocations of supply will continue,” said Burke, of Argus. “Put on your seat belt, keep buckled and then we’ll see how volatile this market will be.”
