Meanwhile, analysts caution that margin performance and ongoing losses in Blinkit and other newer businesses will remain key monitorables, even as the core food delivery segment shows steady signs of improvement.
Food delivery: Growth moderates, margins inch up
The food delivery business is likely to record steady growth in Q3, albeit at a slower pace than in previous quarters. Nuvama estimates net order value for food delivery to rise 2.2% quarter-on-quarter and 14.1% year-on-year, indicating stable demand but limited acceleration.Motilal Oswal expects order value for food delivery to grow around 12% year-on-year, with take rates holding at about 21.5%. Kotak Equities projects 18% year-on-year growth in food delivery GMV.
On profitability, brokerages foresee incremental gains. Nuvama expects adjusted EBITDA margin as a percentage of net order value at around 5.4%, while Motilal Oswal sees a 20 basis point sequential improvement to 5.5%. Kotak Equities, however, estimates a lower EBITDA margin of 4.5% for food delivery, though still showing sequential improvement.
Overall, food delivery remains Eternal’ s most stable and profitable business, providing a buffer against losses elsewhere.
Blinkit: Rapid scale-up, losses persist
Blinkit is once again expected to be the primary growth driver in Q3. Brokerages broadly project Blinkit’s net order value to rise around 14–15% sequentially and about 122–123% year-on-year, backed by rapid dark store expansion and higher order density.
Kotak Equities estimates that Blinkit added approximately 284 dark stores during the quarter, bringing its total network to around 2,100 outlets. Motilal Oswal also expects Blinkit’s growth momentum to continue, supported by improving gross profitability, which it pegs at about 26.5%
However, the profitability remains elusive.
Nuvama expects Blinkit’ s adjusted EBITDA loss to widen to about Rs 130 crore, while Kotak Equities models a loss of around Rs 140 crore, though slightly lower sequentially due to better take rates. Motilal Oswal expects Blinkit’ s adjusted EBITDA margin as a percentage of net order value at minus 1.3% in Q3.
Revenue comparisons for Blinkit remain distorted year-on-year due to the shift to the 1P model from Q1 FY26, which significantly inflates reported revenue without a proportionate change in economics.
Other businesses: Hyperpure and newer bets
Hyperpure is expected to continue its upward trajectory in Q3. Motilal Oswal expects steady growth in the segment, while Kotak Equities models 71% year-on-year growth in Hyperpure revenues, driven by higher restaurant penetration and supply-side scaling.
However, Kotak Equities notes that higher losses in Blinkit and the District business are likely to weigh on consolidated profitability. As a result, consolidated EBITDA margin is expected to contract marginally by about 10 basis points quarter-on-quarter, according to Nuvama.
What to watch
Lastly, revenue and profit growth are expected to remain strong on paper, analysts will closely track commentary on competitive intensity, Blinkit’s path to profitability, food delivery order growth, and margin sustainability.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
