A more than 35% rally in the company’s stock this year has largely been driven by the explosive growth of the weight-loss drug market.
Once seen as a niche category, obesity treatments are now one of the most lucrative segments in healthcare, with steadily rising demand.
Novo Nordisk had the early lead in the space, but Lilly’s drugs – Mounjaro and Zepbound – have surged in popularity and helped eclipse its rival in prescriptions.
In the latest reported quarter, Lilly reported combined revenue of more than $10.09 billion from its obesity and diabetes portfolio, accounting for more than half of its total revenue of $17.6 billion.
“They are doing so many things outside of obesity, but to suggest anything is driving share price beyond obesity at this point, I don’t know if that would be a factual statement,” said Kevin Gade, chief operating officer at Lilly shareholder Bahl and Gaynor, ahead of the milestone.Wall Street estimates the weight-loss drug market to be worth $150 billion by 2030, with Lilly and Novo together controlling the majority of projected global sales.Investors are now focused on Lilly’s oral obesity drug, orforglipron, which is expected to be approved early next year.
In a note last week, Citi analysts said the latest generation of GLP-1 drugs have already been a “sales phenomenon”, and orforglipron is poised to benefit from the “inroads made by its injectable predecessors.”
Lilly’s recent deal with the White House to cut prices for its weight-loss drugs, as well as planned investments to expand drug production augurs well for its growth.
Lilly is starting to resemble the “Magnificent Seven” again, said James Shin, director of Biopharma Equity Research at Deutsche Bank, referring to the tech heavyweights including Nvidia and Microsoft that have powered much of the market’s returns this year.
At one point, investors viewed it as part of that elite group but after some disappointing headlines and earnings, it slipped out of favor.
Now, however, it seems poised to rejoin that circle, possibly even as an alternative for investors, especially given recent concerns and weakness in some AI stocks, he added.
Still, analysts and investors are watching if Lilly can sustain its current growth as prices of Mounjaro and Zepbound come under pressure, and whether its scale-up plans, along with its diversified pipeline and dealmaking will offset margin pressure
