While Nuvama Institutional Equities, YES Securities and JM Financial see net losses up in Q3FY26 to Rs 4,549 crore, Deven Choksey Research expects 18% year-over-year net profit growth. Revenue may drop up to 9%, highest among its peers.
The company will announce its earnings on Thursday, February 5.
Here’s what brokerage estimates say on these 5 key parameters:
1) PAT
— Nuvama Institutional Equities expects adjusted net losses of Rs 3,701 crore largely reflecting the impact of weaker JLR profitability.
— YES Securities pegs the net loss at Rs 2,208 crore weighed down by sharp YoY decline in JLR earnings.
— JM Financial is the most cautious, forecasting net losses of Rs 4,549 crore.
— Deven Choksey Research is the only brokerage among the four which estimates TMPV to report a profit, albeit 18% lower on YoY basis at Rs 446 crore.
2) Revenues
— Nuvama estimates consolidated revenues at Rs 69,023 crore, down 27% YoY and 5% QoQ, as JLR production disruptions offset robust India PV growth.
— YES Securities sees revenue at Rs 68,447 crore, down 5.4% QoQ, with a steep YoY decline driven by JLR.
— JM Financial expects revenues of Rs 67,094 crore, down 29% YoY and 8.3% QoQ.
— Deven Choksey Research pegs PV revenues at Rs 10,218 crore, down 9.3% YoY and 41.2% QoQ.
3) EBITDA
Nuvama forecasts EBITDA of just Rs 374 crore, down 97% YoY, citing higher variable marketing expenses (VME) and lower operating leverage at JLR.
— YES Securities estimates EBITDA at Rs 1,490 crore, with partial recovery in margins QoQ.
— JM Financial expects EBITDA losses of Rs 794 crore, reflecting continued stress at JLR.
— Deven Choksey Research estimates PV EBITDA at Rs 1,174 crore, down 5.4% YoY.
4) EBITDA margin
— Nuvama expects EBITDA margin to compress sharply to 0.5%, down 1,275 bps YoY and 248 bps QoQ, led by weak JLR scale and higher costs.
— YES Securities sees consolidated EBITDA margins recovering modestly to around 2.2%, though still well below historical levels due to JLR headwinds.
5) Volume
Deven Choksey Research estimates PV volumes at 3,60,472 units, up 6% YoY and a sharp 71.2% QoQ, supported by festive demand, GST 2.0-led revival and launches such as the Sierra.
6) Key monitorables
JLR demand and production outlook post the cyber-attack disruption remains key monitorables, said both Nuvama and JM Financial.
Meanwhile, margin recovery trajectory at JLR, including the pace of volume ramp-up and VME normalization also remain in focus, opines YES Securities.
(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)
