The brokerage upgraded MCX to ‘Equal Weight’ from ‘Underweight’ and hiked its target price to Rs 11,135, up from the earlier Rs 6,710.
The stock rose over 2% to touch an intraday high of Rs 11,198, just shy of its 52-week high of Rs 11,218.45 on the BSE.
The brokerage cited a sharp jump in Average Daily Transaction Revenue (ADTR) over the past three months, primarily driven by heightened volatility in gold and silver prices, which contributed nearly 55% to ADTR during the period.
Despite its strong price performance, Morgan Stanley acknowledged that MCX’s valuation remains expensive, but added that sustainable ADTR could help normalize valuation multiples over time. It also revised its EPS estimates upward by 15% for FY26, 20% for FY27, and 24% for FY28, reflecting improved earnings visibility.
The brokerage, however, flagged a key risk: any significant decline in ADTR could trigger swift profit-taking, especially as trading revenue data is disclosed on a daily basis.
MCX, with a market capitalization of Rs 56,919 crore, has seen its shares gain significant momentum in recent months amid increased participation in bullion derivatives and strong volume traction. The stock has now surged more than 150% from its 52-week low of Rs 4,410.10, and investor interest remains high as it continues to test new price territory.Around 11 am, the shares of MCX were trading 2.4% higher at Rs 11,161 on the BSE.
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