The aluminium producer is likely to report an 82% year-on-year (YoY) growth in consolidated net profit for the quarter to Rs 2,545 crore, according to the average of estimates given by six brokerage firms.
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation or EBITDA is expected to grow by 67% YoY to Rs 5,841 crore, but the topline is seen declining 0.5% to Rs 52,928 crore, the estimates showed.
The Aditya Birla Group’s flagship company is scheduled to release its quarterly numbers on Tuesday.
Here is a summary of the brokerage expectations from Hindalco and its US arm Novelis Inc. Novelis is scheduled to release its earnings later on Monday.
Motilal Oswal Securities
Novelis sales volumes are expected to be lower on a sequential basis. Novelis’ EBITDA/tonne guidance of $525/tonne is crucial. The timeline for the commissioning of multiple capex is crucial. We await management guidance on domestic aluminum demand along with the hedging position.
Kotak Institutional Equities
We estimate India EBITDA (standalone + Utkal) at Rs 26 billion (39% YoY, 8.3% QoQ), aluminum EBITDA (including Utkal) of Rs 20.5 billion (55% YoY, 17% QoQ) led by lower costs and sequentially higher aluminium prices, and copper EBITDA of Rs 5.5 billion (0.8% YoY, -16% QoQ) led by resilient TcRcs and a high sequential base. We estimate Novelis EBITDA of $445 million (+30% YoY, -8.1% QoQ) with EBITDA/tonne of $485 (+29% YoY, -6.5% QoQ) factoring in seasonality and planned shutdowns in the quarter on a sequential basis.
Axis Securities
We assume flat aluminum sales QoQ in Q3FY24. Novelis volumes will be impacted in Q3FY24 vs Q2FY24 on account of maintenance shutdown at North America (Oswego hot mill) and other regions. We assume lower copper sales post-strong base of Q2FY24. Revenue to decline QoQ mainly due to lower Novelis shipments, partially offset by higher LME Aluminum prices.
EBITDA to increase YoY/QoQ led by lower input energy and coal prices at Indian operations, partially offset by lower EBITDA/tonne at Novelis. EBITDA margins to improve on a YoY/QoQ basis led by the easing of coal costs at Indian operations.
We expect Novelis EBITDA/tonne to decline in Q3FY24 QoQ led by lower shipments due to maintenance shutdown
Prabhudas Lilladher
LME Aluminium is up 2% QoQ and along with old hedges. Aluminium business is expected to perform better in 3Q led by coal mix improvement; copper volumes will be impacted QoQ (-12%) due to a planned shutdown while AL volumes are likely to grow 1% QoQ.
Novelis performance is expected to remain on the weaker side in a seasonally weak quarter; volumes will decline 1% QoQ to 925,000 tonne; EBITDA/tonne is expected to be in a range of $450-500.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
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